Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

March is usually a month when the westerlies quieten down however. The last week has arguably seen the Atlantic at its most active. If we can't get a spell of weather cold enough for persistent lying snow then I'd much rather see something settled and settled weather is usually more common in March.

As someone who likes to spend a lot of time outdoors, persistently coldish, wet and windy weather is my most hated weather type and since March 1st we have had such a pattern persist. I don't see it winding down until around March 19th if recent runs are to be believed. I don't think some ridges of high pressure are too much to ask, whether they bring coldish or warmer weather.

I get your point, having spent 25 years working outdoors the weather can become a real pain in the butt.... If its either to hot or indeed to cold! Just to think that recent warm spell in febuary brought more warm days then any amount of cold days throughout a 3 month period! Pretty shocking for a winter that promised so much and delivered so little. Yes indeed, the westerlies in March do tend to quite down, you would have thought the ideal opportunity for some HLB to take place! Like you stated in your previous post,to get sustained cold and lying snow now would take an even bigger effort than last year's beast! A potent Nthly or Estly! Baring in mind we are getting to the point where the continent starts to warm gradually. So our best hope would be some transient affairs! And let's face it that situation does not float everyone's boats, I know their are lots of mild and warm rampers coming out in force now with deep spring approaching, and I won't begrudge any of them their chase! Just 1 or 2 snow events would suit me just fine then hell. Bring on summer! The heat won't suite everyone like the cold doesn't suite everyone, so let's hope for a middle ground.... Warm sunny days, and coolish nights, at least that way everyone can get some bloody sleep!!! Its all good!

Edited March 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Who said it was a climate emergency?

An anonymous Met Office 'contact', no doubt, QS?

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I get your point, having spent 25 years working outdoors the weather can become a real pain in the butt.... If its either to hot or indeed to cold! Just to think that recent warm spell in febuary brought more warm days then any amount of cold days throughout a 3 month period! Pretty shocking for a winter that promised so much and delivered so little. Yes indeed, the westerlies in March do tend to quite down, you would have thought the ideal opportunity for some HLB to take place! Like you stated in your previous post,to get sustained cold and lying snow now would take an even bigger effort than last year's beast! A potent Nthly or Estly! Baring in mind we are getting to the point where the continent starts to warm gradually. So our best hope would be some transient affairs! And let's face it that situation does not float everyone's boats, I know their are lots of mild and warm rampers coming out in force now with deep spring approaching, and I won't begrudge any of them their chase! Just 1 or 2 snow events would suit me just fine then hell. Bring on summer! The heat won't suite everyone like the cold doesn't suite everyone, so let's hope for a middle ground.... Warm sunny days, and coolish nights, at leat that way everyone can get some bloody sleep!!! Its all good!

TBH I don't even mind cold weather that much as it can still feel pleasant in the sun but its when there is all this windy, dull weather with little reprieve occurs that I dislike. Even a toppler northerly would be fine with me (even they seem uncommon nowadays...)

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

An anonymous Met Office 'contact', no doubt, QS?

Yet you think a 1c increase in temps over 70 years is a crisis but a 12c increase in the UK over a week isn't, wonder why?

Edited March 7, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it's staying unsettled nationwide for a while longer and it's also turning colder with below average temperatures, especially further north and there is an increasing risk of snow later in the weekend into early next week, especially on hills according to the postage stamps..for the most part thereafter, temps fluctuate a bit either side of average so a few mild and cold days and then gradually tending more towards a north / south split with some ridging extending into southern uk bringing drier and brighter conditions with temps nudging a little higher but remaining more changeable / unsettled and cooler across the north. 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yet you think a 1c increase in temps over 70 years is a crisis but a 12c increase in the UK over a week isn't, wonder why?

Oh dear............

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Oh dear............

Yes - oh dear!

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - oh dear!

I think you are mixing up local weather with global climate which are two very different things....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it's staying unsettled nationwide for a while longer and it's also turning colder with below average temperatures, especially further north and there is an increasing risk of snow later in the weekend into early next week, especially on hills..for the most part thereafter, temps fluctuate a bit either side of average so a few mild and cold days and then gradually tending more towards a north / south split with some ridging extending into southern uk bringing drier and brighter conditions with temps nudging a little higher but remaining more changeable / unsettled and cooler across the north. 

Its alright for you frosty, your from up north! You haven't got far to go to get your fix from the pennines! I on the other hand will have to catch a train up there and perhaps sledge it back!

[Optimus Prime]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yet you think a 1c increase in temps over 70 years is a crisis but a 12c increase in the UK over a week isn't, wonder why?

That is utter rubbish on so many levels though.

[MP-R]

52 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

March is usually a month when the westerlies quieten down however. The last week has arguably seen the Atlantic at its most active. If we can't get a spell of weather cold enough for persistent lying snow then I'd much rather see something settled and settled weather is usually more common in March.

As someone who likes to spend a lot of time outdoors, persistently coldish, wet and windy weather is my most hated weather type and since March 1st we have had such a pattern persist. I don't see it winding down until around March 19th if recent runs are to be believed. I don't think some ridges of high pressure are too much to ask, whether they bring coldish or warmer weather.

It’s still only the first week of the month though. Very rarely is it settled in the first half of the month. Although the strength of the pv is more than one might expect, this current weather is hardly unusual. I think expectations run too high too early, much like in September for autumn cool/cold. I never expect lengthy settled weather until after the equinox.

Beware the ides of March!

 

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yet you think a 1c increase in temps over 70 years is a crisis but a 12c increase in the UK over a week isn't, wonder why?

I'm trying to recall a year in which temperatures, in the UK, haven't increased by 12C during a week, at some time or other...

[Frosty.]

Good news longer term, the Gfs so far today (and recently) indicates a warming and more settled trend towards and beyond the spring equinox..as does exeter!

Edited March 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Oh dear the thread is being dragged in to global warming debate again!! Time and a place folks!! 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's move swiftly back to Model Discussion please, Thank you.

[knocker]

A lot of showers and longer periods of rain in the circulation of the low pressure system that is slowly drifting east into the North Sea

[Frosty.]

Browsing through the GEFS 6z there are some signs of winter with potential for a sharp cold snap!

[Iceaxecrampon]

31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Browsing through the GEFS 6z there are some signs of winter with potential for a sharp cold snap!

I like - but I sort of dont like.

Is it just me?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I like - but I sort of dont like.

Is it just me?

I kind of get you, the bottom of the chart makes it look like a blast furnace is on the way!

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yet you think a 1c increase in temps over 70 years is a crisis but a 12c increase in the UK over a week isn't, wonder why?

Quite simple

One is weather the other is climate

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If we can get the uppers in that GFSP is predicting, we are back in the game for some kind of snowfall on Sunday, and then again on Tuesday!! Long way to go yet, there is bound to be tweaks along the way, but just enjoy the ride folks! 

[knocker]

The 500mb and surface analysis for midday

The showers/rain and gusty wind associated with the low will slowly die out this evening as the low moves into the North Sea, resulting in a relatively clear night under a transient ridge with a widespread frost by morning.

So tomorrow will start clear but cloud and rain will quickly effect Ireland and NW Scotland as more frontal systems track east from the Atlantic.The rain will move east during the day effecting most areas. apart from the east until late on. Quite heavy at times in the north with some snow on the higher ground.

The fronts and rain will clear to the east during the evening and overnight leaving some residual showers over Scotland and N. Ireland.

But by Saturday morning another frontal wave will swing quickly east bringing more rain to Wales and southern England through the day and further complications in he north with a front in close proximity and a trough in the north westerly flow.  Thus some rain/showery activity here with snow on the high ground in Scotland.Some regional variation with tmps as cooler air is introduced in the north

The scenario is quite complex over Saturday night through Sunday with an upper trough over the UK stretching away to the north west. With a number of surface systems associated with this running around the country. Thus the weather remains unsettled with rain/showers and quite windy with perhaps more widespread snow down to lower levels in the north/ Temps now below average

But whilst this is going on another trough has dropped into the western Atlantic from the Newfoundland area and is tracking quickly east and after some brief ridging cloud, rain and strong winds associated with this will be effecting western regions of the country by Monday evening and will effect the rest of the country overnight and through Tuesday  Frequent squally showers will follow in the strong north westerly flow.Again there could be some snow on the higher ground in the north

Continuing unsettled through the rest of the week with the phasing of the warm/cold air being the key feature

The key elements in this output are wind and rain

Edited March 7, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Even deep in to fi the GFSP is reluctant to warm us up! Another cold shot moving down from the NW! Cold March anyone! The gfs 12z tends to go with a slightly warmer scenario with high pressure bang over us, you can't really win, whether it's cold or warm... Some folk just wont be happy!!! 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Sky Full]

10 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c in places!

 

NOW you've got my attention!  I'll definitely hold you to that promise, Frosty.  Much as I love a cold and snowy Winter, the time for deep snowfall and prolonged overnight frosts is over for this season, as far as I am concerned.  There are Spring flowers in the garden and by the roadsides, and the birds are starting to nest.  The last thing we need now is an Arctic blast to put everything back another month.  Luckily, the GFS is beginning to tease us with a suggestion that high pressure will be back in charge towards the end of the month bringing calmer more Spring-like conditions to most parts of the U.K.  It's a pity the models are not more believable at this distance but I'm keeping my fingers crossed that these conditions are still being shown in a couple of days!

Edited March 7, 2019 by Sky Full

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

NOW you've got my attention!  I'll definitely hold you to that promise, Frosty.  Much as I love a cold and snowy Winter, the time for deep snowfall and prolonged overnight frosts is over for this season, as fast as I am concerned.  There are Spring flowers in the garden and by the roadsides, and the birds are starting to nest.  The last thing we need now is an Arctic blast to put everything back another month.  Luckily, the GFS is beginning to tease us with a suggestion that high pressure will be back in charge towards the end of the month bringing calmer more Spring-like conditions to most parts of the U.K.  It's a pity the models are not more believable at this distance but I'm keeping my fingers crossed that these conditions are still being shown in a couple of days!

There as been spring flowers in my garden since January! as for birds nesting, I think the pigeons are at it constantly. Gfs does have high pressure over us later this month, although not overly warm, on the other hand the GFSP has us staying quite a bit colder. Pick your poison!! Like I've stated a lot recently, give me a decent snow event and I will be ready for spring proper! I've spent that much time searching for it these last 3 months my head is literally falling off. Frosty and Feb must also feel the same by now, I really hope background signals are crap next winter but it delivers big time. As for the coming summer I predict a tale of 2 halves, a very warm settled start, followed by a cooler more unsettled latter! As for the coming winter.... I've just heard on the grapevine.. Emerging background signals are looking positive!