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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few off topic posts have had to go, Please continue with Model Output discussion, Thanks all.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

If that comes to fruition we do seem to be in a repeating pattern of unsettled/wet first halves of months and much more settled second halves.

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

Looking for upgrades now but definitely not going to be warm next week. Past 150 still up for grabs in my opinion 

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_150.thumb.jpg.f00e55a78f4e7a3626c876f1a89f07be.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240.thumb.jpg.b77b5891d18b439867ff8314dd1a1bf1.jpg

Could we end up with the end to winter which is not being hunted anymore.

Edited by icykev
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A Looking at the EPS mean anomalies this morning and they  would appear to be moving into a fairly familiar upstream pattern That is a strengthening amplification vis the Alaska ridge/Canadian vortex/trough combination allied to the Aleutian low. The former two taking on a slight negativity tilt. Thus still a very strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but any northward amplification of the subtropical high in mid atlantic tending to diminish in the ext period. Ergo the flow in the eastern Atlantis that has veered NW will revert to more westerly flow which, although portending still unsettled, perhaps less 'wintry' with temps just a touch below average

10-15.thumb.png.146d2bd38691a4ba816843eca13d5e56.png1968739030_10-15st.thumb.png.80e4aaf967737e80cf81efcd76fafcdc.png5-10.thumb.png.3f019c9b3938d232aa4912f8cd15ca67.png

Although certainly not identical last evening's NOAA is in the same ball park

610day_03.thumb.gif.ea42100b15733d368e93afe751d7fb28.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ed6c74853c7c0ef513c1a2e01df97b35.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c in places!

Ditto the 6z operational

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I've heard some talk about spring on the way by the equinox! Oh well if that's the case... Then bring it on! Up until then perhaps a bit of wintryness!! 

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alaska-winter-memes-mosquitos.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I've heard some talk about spring on the way by the equinox! Oh well if that's the case... Then bring it on! Up until then perhaps a bit of wintryness!! 

To me it's looking a bit rubbish after early next week, more wet than white..to be honest if we can't have snow I would rather have the spring-like weather the gfs is showing further into low res.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Anyone care to talk about the 6z GEFS and in particular a clustering around the 18th March.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Frosty. said:

To me it's looking a bit rubbish after early next week, more wet than white..to be honest if we can't have snow I would rather have the spring-like weather the gfs is showing further into low res.

Yeh, perhaps some interest early next week frosty, like you say I would much prefer warm sunny days than wet/windy cool days, my only worry would be the nice warm conditions peaking to soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone care to talk about the 6z GEFS and in particular a clustering around the 18th March.

What are you seeing Feb! Tbh I was expecting worse on these ensembles, yet there appears to be still a fair few cold options on the table. 

graphe3_1000_250_92___.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What are you seeing Feb! Tbh I was expecting worse on these ensembles, yet there appears to be still a fair few cold options on the table. 

graphe3_1000_250_92___.gif

doesn't look as great on those, i was viewing on wetter and it looked like that cold cluster was lasting longer - not bad though.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I was thinking a cyclonic Northerly possible - perhaps a developing wave like Dec 90, yes i know that was in early winter but IMO, that is the type of setup that will deliver in spring, you want continuous heavy snowfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS looking a bit meh, this morning, I must say: before Spring proper springs there's still plenty of coldish dross to endure...Just hope the late March warm-up materializes!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I can't help but feel we are again going through one of these situations when the models downgrade, then upgrade numerous times over the coming days! The gfs output ain't been great so far from the operational runs, but the ensembles paint a slightly better picture! Expect upgrades and downgrades galore over the coming days! 

thumb_brace-yourself-winter-is-coming-and-going-and-coming-and-798144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't help but feel we are again going through one of these situations when the models downgrade, then upgrade numerous times over the coming days! The gfs output ain't been great so far from the operational runs, but the ensembles paint a slightly better picture! Expect upgrades and downgrades galore over the coming days! 

thumb_brace-yourself-winter-is-coming-and-going-and-coming-and-798144.png

Ensemble mean does get the -6c isotherm down to the midlands on sunday(ish)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
32 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't help but feel we are again going through one of these situations when the models downgrade, then upgrade numerous times over the coming days! The gfs output ain't been great so far from the operational runs, but the ensembles paint a slightly better picture! Expect upgrades and downgrades galore over the coming days! 

Summed up very well, I just want a decent cold snap, and there is a chance of that before I welcome spring in all its glory..as the Gfs 00z operational showed and indeed exeter are indicating!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS looking a bit meh, this morning, I must say: before Spring proper springs there's still plenty of coldish dross to endure...Just hope the late March warm-up materializes!

Yup cold weather at this time of the year just feels awful, especially if its cold wind and snow is increasingly difficult to settle unless we have a continental easterly or a seriously cold northerly. Hardly any settled weather which isn't good for the outdoors.

I hope, like 99.99% of the UK population, that we get some warm settled weather soon. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup cold weather at this time of the year just feels awful, especially if its cold wind and snow is increasingly difficult to settle unless we have a continental easterly or a seriously cold northerly. Hardly any settled weather which isn't good for the outdoors.

I hope, like 99.99% of the UK population, that we get some warm settled weather soon. 

That's bizzare quicksilver, soon!!!! We recently had a 20+ degrees mini heatwave in febuary!! We ain't even recorded as many cold days as that warm spell throughout a 3 month period!! It could be a hell of a lot worse. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's bizzare quicksilver, soon!!!! We recently had a 20+ degrees mini heatwave in febuary!! We ain't even recorded as many cold days as that warm spell throughout a 3 month period!! It could be a hell of a lot worse. 

Yes, also never understood this switch flicking, surely you can't change your cold / warm threshold with seasons, if you are uncomfortable at a certain temperature, that applies at any time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea

Well the warm spell in February was a climate emergency apparently, so surely people should be happy with average weather haha. 

Anyway, off topic.... Sorry 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

That's bizzare quicksilver, soon!!!! We recently had a 20+ degrees mini heatwave in febuary!! We ain't even recorded as many cold days as that warm spell throughout a 3 month period!! It could be a hell of a lot worse. 

March is usually a month when the westerlies quieten down however. The last week has arguably seen the Atlantic at its most active. If we can't get a spell of weather cold enough for persistent lying snow then I'd much rather see something settled and settled weather is usually more common in March.

As someone who likes to spend a lot of time outdoors, persistently coldish, wet and windy weather is my most hated weather type and since March 1st we have had such a pattern persist. I don't see it winding down until around March 19th if recent runs are to be believed. I don't think some ridges of high pressure are too much to ask, whether they bring coldish or warmer weather.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Well the warm spell in February was a climate emergency apparently, so surely people should be happy with average weather haha. 

Anyway, off topic.... Sorry 

Who said it was a climate emergency?

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