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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
28 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

"Beware the Ides of March" said the 12z GFS.

 

gens-10-1-150.thumb.png.12ee1dafb0a5f8781da4376c4b13d91c.pnggens-14-1-144.thumb.png.ede23291af0d169a74bffa434f733343.png

Flirting with some of the lowest pressure recorded in the UK...

Hurricane Katrina made landfall with a central pressure of 920mb - as I am reliably informed by Wikipedia. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, temps will soon be going below average, significantly so, especially further north and looking at these postage stamps..there's a very good chance that snow is on the way..bring it!!!❄⛄

snow_78_ps_slp.png

snow_102_ps_slp.png

snow_174_ps_slp.png

snow_294_ps_slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kilwinning, North Ayrshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kilwinning, North Ayrshire

Nice to see the mood up in here again and looks like winter wants to come back

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
3 hours ago, karyo said:

Yes, wet snow is much heavier! 

 

3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Gerrin excited now!! Perhaps the gfs is delayed due to the overwhelming weight of snow charts its carrying on its shoulders!,

This is what happened in a marginal wet snow event in nw kent just up the rd.

 

Not far away now

Outsiders 4 cheltenham.

h500slp.png.1400b3adce94e2fe737d872bf12bbfde.thumb.png.00e1a196250f5c7fa194e9f6219693d2.png

 

Screenshot_2019-03-06-19-22-27.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, icykev said:

 

This is what happened in a marginal wet snow event in nw kent just up the rd.

 

Not far away now

Outsiders 4 cheltenham.

h500slp.png.1400b3adce94e2fe737d872bf12bbfde.thumb.png.00e1a196250f5c7fa194e9f6219693d2.png

 

Screenshot_2019-03-06-19-22-27.png

Nice one kev, good to see you back out of retirement!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's plenty of below average (rather cold weather) on the Ecm 12z and another cold shot is being locked and loaded beyond day 10 as well..I think some of us will be seeing some lovely snow flakes soon!!❄️

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
1 hour ago, Purga said:

Yes,nice blizzard conditions for the north!

image.thumb.png.69f1c2e64d565539c0926b1c07a56f09.pngimage.thumb.png.0d96286beba44626aadd5c750e941a24.pngimage.thumb.png.3a7368092e99a81f641b535a751d4283.png

Great stuff

Mmmm... Posting a thickness, precipitation and notoriously inaccurate snowfall accumulation map, doesn't make a blizzard.

The thickness chart does indicate some strong and gusty winds for Friday;

image.thumb.png.81d92835a59cdc3d950d257636337bf0.png

These are sustained winds at 10m between 30-50mph in the orange-red zones, and perhaps gusting to 60mph in exposed areas. This accompanied with any snowfall would produce whiteout conditions and perhaps blizzard during sustained snowfall across the hills.

The 1500m is cold, down to -7°C in northern parts but generally much less cold elsewhere;

image.thumb.png.971798ed94d1a40dc052837f4cc93946.png

Dew Points unfavourable in most areas. 

image.thumb.png.cd8acb420733c6f49928f84efd8be51e.png

2m temperature tells a similar story; marginal, without heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling;

image.thumb.png.9a3d9158aa80ad19fab491d6476c9252.png

^high ground certainly quite favourable.

Precipitation type;

image.thumb.png.c9530a150cdf91510a125fd2a0db81f5.png

Schnee = snow.

Again, notoriously unreliable, especially at this range. Certainly shows potential, but at this stage all of the other factors for Friday point towards mostly rain/sleet mix and wet snow for a time in northern areas. SE - no chance. 

image.png

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Mmmm... Posting a thickness, precipitation and notoriously inaccurate snowfall accumulation map, doesn't make a blizzard.

The thickness chart does indicate some strong and gusty winds for Friday;

image.thumb.png.81d92835a59cdc3d950d257636337bf0.png

These are sustained winds at 10m between 30-50mph in the orange-red zones, and perhaps gusting to 60mph in exposed areas. This accompanied with any snowfall would produce whiteout conditions and perhaps blizzard during sustained snowfall across the hills.

The 1500km is cold, down to -7°C in northern parts but generally much less cold elsewhere;

image.thumb.png.971798ed94d1a40dc052837f4cc93946.png

Dew Points unfavourable in most areas. 

image.thumb.png.cd8acb420733c6f49928f84efd8be51e.png

2m temperature tells a similar story; marginal, without heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling;

image.thumb.png.9a3d9158aa80ad19fab491d6476c9252.png

^high ground certainly quite favourable.

Precipitation type;

image.thumb.png.c9530a150cdf91510a125fd2a0db81f5.png

Schnee = snow.

Again, notoriously unreliable, especially at this range. Certainly shows potential, but at this stage all of the other factors for Friday point towards mostly rain/sleet mix and wet snow for a time in northern areas. SE - no chance. 

image.png

Booooooom!!! And there in that 1 post goes the hopes of the cold hunting nation.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

A lot has been said about the coming few days cold and snow potential, but for me what the GFSP is toying with further down the line could be more potent!! Subject to change obviously, but it's nice to see the idea there, especially this late in the season! 

gfs-1-288.png

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gfs-1-360.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Booooooom!!! And there in that 1 post goes the hopes of the cold hunting nation.

Indeed, my glass is half full..more than half actually and I'm looking forward to the 18z to show the gfs / gefs wintry theme continue to firm up..I think it will!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
25 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Mmmm... Posting a  notoriously inaccurate snowfall accumulation map, doesn't make a blizzard.

 

No it doesn't make a blizzard but it is model output that suggests a blizzard, nothing posted in any weather thread or any Met Office model / forecast ever makes a blizzard, the only thing that makes a blizzard is that white stuff falling out the sky in gale force winds with severe intensity, but there wouldn't be much point of this thread if you could only post charts you are certain of verifying as there wouldn't be a great deal of posts.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
30 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Mmmm... Posting a thickness, precipitation and notoriously inaccurate snowfall accumulation map, doesn't make a blizzard.

The thickness chart does indicate some strong and gusty winds for Friday;

image.thumb.png.81d92835a59cdc3d950d257636337bf0.png

These are sustained winds at 10m between 30-50mph in the orange-red zones, and perhaps gusting to 60mph in exposed areas. This accompanied with any snowfall would produce whiteout conditions and perhaps blizzard during sustained snowfall across the hills.

The 1500m is cold, down to -7°C in northern parts but generally much less cold elsewhere;

image.thumb.png.971798ed94d1a40dc052837f4cc93946.png

Dew Points unfavourable in most areas. 

image.thumb.png.cd8acb420733c6f49928f84efd8be51e.png

2m temperature tells a similar story; marginal, without heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling;

image.thumb.png.9a3d9158aa80ad19fab491d6476c9252.png

^high ground certainly quite favourable.

Precipitation type;

image.thumb.png.c9530a150cdf91510a125fd2a0db81f5.png

Schnee = snow.

Again, notoriously unreliable, especially at this range. Certainly shows potential, but at this stage all of the other factors for Friday point towards mostly rain/sleet mix and wet snow for a time in northern areas. SE - no chance. 

image.png

Snow in the SE no chance you say

 

you didn’t need all those other charts to prove that because the PPN chart clearly shows that the charts you do show actually back up the PPN chart 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Snow in the SE no chance you say

 

you didn’t need all those other charts to prove that because the PPN chart clearly shows that the charts you do show actually back up the PPN chart 

Did you have to requote the entire post including all the charts?..it just wastes page space!

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Nice one kev, good to see you back out of retirement!

Good to be back Mr Wolf, Frosty. 

Cold warriors you are looks cold to me. If not really cold.

Screenshot_2019-03-06-20-19-48.thumb.png.d2ac09000ae3c3ce3e32403fc80c3937.pngimage.png.661f93faef89bb3e086815be1ca910b0.thumb.png.5c35b23b2b0939f0754570b21f37af14.pngthethinkernews.thumb.jpg.ec80eb439417f6de6c7a33feeffc25af.jpg

It will be cold. It will be wet . But it could end up being allwhite☺

Brace yourself cheltenham is coming

Edited by icykev
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

-8 uppers dropping quite far South by Sunday! 

gfs-1-102.png

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

 

you didn’t need all those other charts to prove that because the PPN chart clearly shows that the charts you do show actually back up the PPN chart 

That's actually not true at all, and the precip chart doesn't match well with the other charts I posted. There is clearly some indication for wintriness to be had for West Midlands, inland parts of the South West and Southern England. It suggests sleet/snow as the front moves west to east. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z brings  @Steve Murr   back into the equation.

A risk of 1cm?..how long would that last in the strong mid March ??..18z looks great for w / n scotland though..until the next run at least!.

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