Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Eastnorthwest]

4 hours ago, WhiteFox said:

I disagree! What you need to do is tune out the noise. The longwave pattern is identical in the two charts that @West is Best posted. The surface analysis is different because it always will be at that range; smaller scale features are enormously complex to forecast.

As far as forecasting goes, IMHO, you can only reliably predict PPN amounts and temperature within a range that broadens as you move further out in time (yes, there are times when the range narrows or widens, generally when a pattern change is occurring). Beyond that, you are simply looking at likelihoods and probabilities; no scientific forecaster will be willing to say if it will rain and what the temperature will be at a particular time on a date more than six days in the future. They may forecast above or below average conditions in a range of categories for a period of time, but I don't think that models going past 6 days were ever intended to be taken literally, but rather as a guide.

Forecasts do bust, with this winter being a prime example. But, on the whole, NWP models are pretty good when it comes to forecasting PPN (not type!), wind direction and overall conditions out to the six or seven day range. Going further out, I only consider a forecast to be a bust if a predicted pattern change hasn't happened or an unforeseen change did happen (e.g. mobile to blocked) and anything beyond day 10 is simply a possibility rather than a likelihood.

A forecast hasn't failed just because a secondary low appeared on one operational output and then does not on the next: that is what I mean by noise.

Agreed to a point but my point was the lack of clarity in model charts beyond a cirtain time which to my mind makes forecasting very very difficult yes the experts can see chinks of what might happen in the future but invariably what we see every 6 hours or 12 on the models beyond 5 to 7 days rarely come to 20% fruition which is either interesting to some or very disappointing to most ,let's hope the models become a bit more reliable in the future,

A good post by yourself  all the same 

[feb1991blizzard]

I am now actually tempted to plumb for this shortwave not forming properly, unsure of south or Northwards corrections but its looking like it will be just a kink in the isobars (still wintry PPN can occur of course).

EDIT : Sundays i am talking about - still potential for wintry showers - indeed upgraded on the 12z GFS.

Edited March 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Iceaxecrampon]

....I mean to say - what is the chance of this next Tuesday rush hour?

 

[SMU]

Another cracker for the North- nearly 40cm...

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 12z 132-156 - rapid cyclogenesis alert!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Surely an overcooked GFS Channel LP? 

....I know it's March and all that  -  but.....

 

[Bobd29]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

....I mean to say - what is the chance of this next Tuesday rush hour?

 

Be an interesting start to the Cheltenham Festival if that comes off. Looks cold, very windy and a lot of showers which could be wintry.

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Another cracker for the North- nearly 40cm...

What day is that?

Tuesday next?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just now, Bobd29 said:

Be an interesting start to the Cheltenham Festival if that comes off. Looks cold, very windy and a lot of showers which could be wintry.

Can't see what the LP bottoms out at? 

97?

96?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another cracker for the North- nearly 40cm...

That really would be the final straw for me - 1cm for me - 30cm for most other pennine areas!!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yet again the gfs serves us up some snowy charts, also GFSP serving up some even colder  Conditions in fi. Some fun and games perhaps in the coming days, heard a lot today about models being useless behind 5 days, and big improvements need to be made to them!! Not so sure about this, I think the models do a decent job considering the volatile nature of our climate!! Anyway what else can we rely upon? Perhaps we need punxsutawney Phil to give us the bigger picture beyond a week in future!? 

[Stevew]

The Cheltenham festival gets underway at 1.30pm on Tuesday of next week. Surely the weather gods are not going to be unkind this year - not after the Equine flu outbreak in Feb which was bad enough!

Edited March 6, 2019 by Stevew

[R Alto]

3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Can't see what the LP bottoms out at? 

97?

96?

I make it 960mb

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Yup and 96 hour chart looks interesting for the midlands as well as the 144 hour chart!!could be some snowfall over the next week anywhere!!

Not that snow imby is all you care about shaky.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Several opportunities for snow in the coming week, some parts in the NW could be battered! Could we at last be in some kind of agreement that some late wintry weather is gonna hit us, or will it all be played down again tonight, then back on tomorrow... And so fourth!!!! 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Sweatyman]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That really would be the final straw for me - 1cm for me - 30cm for most other pennine areas!!!!

1cm more than me

[Frosty.]

Hyperventilation alert!! .these Gfs 12z operational charts are a bit of alwhite ain't they!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is getting more unusual as we go deeper into a very deep minimum.  The whole of Feb was sunspot blank....and still we are blank.  North America experienced insane cold again.   Our time to be wrong side/right side of very disturbed jetstream?  Some extreme March weather showing and is the record breaking cold assisting the super deep lows projected attacking, let’s see how this pans out.  

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This is getting more unusual as we go deeper into a very deep minimum.  The whole of Feb was sunspot blank....and still we are blank.  North America experienced insane cold again.   Our time to be wrong side/right side of very disturbed jetstream?  Some extreme March weather showing and is the record breaking cold assisting the super deep lows projected attacking, let’s see how this pans out.  

 

BFTP

Yes BLAST, people can twist it any which way they want, saying overall March has averaged out at not too much standard deviation from the norm over last few years, but i have experienced my coldest March ever, my most extreme weather event in March ever and my second biggest snow event ever and my biggest in the second half of a March - all within the last 6 years.

EDIT : when i say biggest snow event, i mean in March of course.

Edited March 6, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

1cm more than me

You got battered from the sliders.

[Cloud 10]

"Beware the Ides of March" said the 12z GFS.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS looking good as well at 192.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That really would be the final straw for me - 1cm for me - 30cm for most other pennine areas!!!!

awful chart that, gutted

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

awful chart that, gutted

It might track further south though - any how, i would rather 1cm than none, and would rather cold and somebody else see snow than mild crap.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 distinct clusters alert!!!!

and just after half way, the GENUINELY cold one is the bigger.