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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Looks like a decent snow event for Northern England at day 5 on the 12z ECM,

 

ECU1-120.GIF.thumb.png.dd000c14e376313603ac6effbf06d025.pngECU0-120.GIF.thumb.png.66c57d41ff441092e91a0f61826c5393.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just been looking at the GEFS 12z mean and really what it shows is temperatures becoming predominantly below average (coldest further north) and it continues unsettled..the postage stamps show plenty of snow opportunities and most if not all of the uk is in with a chance..or indeed several chances..not all snow of course but certainly a wintry flavour by early / mid March standards!! ❄

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
33 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Looks like a decent snow event for Northern England at day 5 on the 12z ECM,

 

ECU1-120.GIF.thumb.png.dd000c14e376313603ac6effbf06d025.pngECU0-120.GIF.thumb.png.66c57d41ff441092e91a0f61826c5393.png

 

 

image.thumb.png.a9c2a26e4bea4a60976b62c62d765b8a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Whilst it looks encouraging for a cold blast with snow chances atm as we all know with how this so called winter has gone it could all quite easily go Pete tong and be the wrong side of marginal for most. I/we live in hope for one last chance but I think if this does go tits up that will be the end of my cold hunt and will flip as quick as the models for the hunt for heat and storms.

bring on the ❄️ ❄️ ⛄️ 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.a9c2a26e4bea4a60976b62c62d765b8a.png

If it's a slider will it be corrected south like last time in favour of the southerners?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
14 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

If it's a slider will it be corrected south like last time in favour of the southerners?

Yes, i was just about to edit my post to say it will track further South, TBH i don't think it will be a Southern England event this one, West / East Midlands, Birmingham / Worcester the Sweet spot IMO, however, it will be a mix of rain sleet and snow, no way an all snow event, some sweet spots will get a decent dumping though, those PPN charts always over do the snow.

EDIT : GFS not great, too far North and only on very high ground.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

@feb1991blizzard please dont  bring me out of hibernation this late on in the season lol!!

I wouldn't get hopes up - its not going to be a spectacular, just could be a lot better than so far this season.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 hours ago, Singularity said:

Sadly I believe you're probably onto something there on both counts (cold episodes this spring + high temp risks this year).

Focusing on the next half-year, if the El Nino now manages to evolve along typical lines and doesn't reach more than weak-moderate strength before August, then there's a good chance that a lot of anomalous heat builds across regions aside from the UK this Mar-Apr, perhaps paying occasional visits, before we start to tap into it more as we approach and go into the summer. This would likely be a less stable pattern than seen May-Jun last year; more unstable episodes with thunderstorm risks.

Puts both the record day maximums and record night minimums at risk if it transpires - but we should also keep an eye on the N. Atlantic sea surface temps as the 'cold pool' out there, by lowering the maritime air temps off the N. Atlantic which then interacted with the unusually hot air over Europe, fired up the polar jet too much when we last saw such high potential for a hot, thundery type summer back in 2016. The results were tragic; a very westerly summer with only one short hot spell - yet that was enough to break the July record for England, which speaks volumes (even considering the usual arguments regarding the Heathrow weather station).

Possibly, the lower solar activity may help to reduce the westerlies even in this scenario and give us the leeway needed - but the solar-westerlies link is much less clear cut outside of the polar vortex season.

So there you are; the initial guidance for summer 2019: either hot with many thundery episodes, or cool with only 'thundery showers' at best for most. Helpful isn't it .

I hope the above doesn't transpire, lots of humidity and damp dank weather likely especially in the west and north, lots of rain as well.. Will wait and see.

Northerly shots could be the theme of the next few weeks, with temporary ridge development with the jetstream on a more southerly meridional trajectory, with the UK often on the colder side. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Some interesting snow opportunities this weekend and into early next week, plenty of cold air being dragged into the mix, this is gonna take a few places by surprise!! The excitement is building, I'm not quite doing a frosty and hyperventilating.... But I do have the brown paper bag on standby!! 

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18_180_preciptype.png

 

brace-yourselves-winter-is-coming-https-t-co-t7hvejmbhz-13832120.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well this from the 18z looks a bit of all white doesn't it!❄

18_120_preciptype.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't get hopes up - its not going to be a spectacular, just could be a lot better than so far this season.

You never know Feb, these things can turn out much worse than you expected! 

64dbd16e7357995bb2da5298bfac3a76cfb7b5ac.jpg

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A fair and balanced view of the Gfs 18z is that yes there is some snow but there's a LOT of rain too!❄️☔

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A fair and balanced view of the Gfs 18z is that yes there is some snow but there's a LOT of rain too!❄️☔

Yeh, agreed, in all fairness most of the interest in the next week or so seems to be from the midlands North. Hate to say it but the southerners may not be fairing to good as it stands! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What, that dreaded invisible shield that led to this!!!!!

_105411985_492dfd15-0fd6-4574-b176-aa7f66d6821d.jpg

Yes, one positive this year is that it has been absent, but has returned in the 18Z 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh, agreed, in all fairness most of the interest in the next week or so seems to be from the midlands North. Hate to say it but the southerners may not be fairing to good as it stands! 

Yep, probably next year now for us southerners, unless April can can deliver a late surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Don said:

Yep, probably next year now for us southerners, unless April can can deliver a late surprise.

Don't give up Don, it's only the 18z!..plenty of time for upgrades.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Don said:

Yep, probably next year now for us southerners, unless April can can deliver a late surprise.

I spoke to a friend who lives in Dublin yesterday, and apperantly on higher parts 2-3inch fell, and it took everyone by surprise!! Never say never Don, that fall of snow you had end of January was forecast to last about 6or 7 hours, and as you know it lasted for 24 hours in places. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Gfs has backtracked significantly from its position of 2 days ago. As is the norm it had been over egging the cold uppers and wind flow. A much flatter flow showing now for the weekend with any snowfall preserved for the far North. All models do suggest quite a windy wknd with some storm naming possible

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
47 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs has backtracked significantly from its position of 2 days ago. As is the norm it had been over egging the cold uppers and wind flow. A much flatter flow showing now for the weekend with any snowfall preserved for the far North. All models do suggest quite a windy wknd with some storm naming possible

Yes, as mentioned yesterday, the Azores high just constantly fails to ridge north in the Atlantic, it seems to have been a constant all winter for models to show this happening around day 10 only to flatten it by the time we get inside 144. Yet again both gfs and ecm show a good Atlantic block and northerly at day 10...chances of it flattening by day 1 must be high on recent trends...in the meantime, this needs watching for Sunday, potentially disruption in the form of winds and even snow on hills....ecm has it further south, gfs doesn't have it at all! 

 

PPVO89-10.gif

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs has backtracked significantly from its position of 2 days ago. As is the norm it had been over egging the cold uppers and wind flow. A much flatter flow showing now for the weekend with any snowfall preserved for the far North. All models do suggest quite a windy wknd with some storm naming possible

As ever.  The usual model failure to pick up disturbances in the flow South of Greenland cutting off the Northerly flow. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

GFS ... I love it but it's propensity either to wildly over-bake Atlantic storms and then ignore the ones which actually do occur (eg Freya) makes it so erratic.

Here's a classic example. Last night's 18z for Sunday:

206964901_ScreenShot2019-03-06at07_49_52.thumb.png.3858b2136bbd7c362120fbd050e5c0f9.png

= a deep and potent storm over southern Britain.

Six hours later on the 0z run? It's completely vanished!!!!

426994489_ScreenShot2019-03-06at07_50_04.thumb.png.5b2f3dfbff0d1f4a8f8a961a2dc0cd58.png

 

 

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

As ever.  The usual model failure to pick up disturbances in the flow South of Greenland cutting off the Northerly flow. 

 

Can you show us this disturbance in the flow? 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

If anyone still needs persuading that relying on any individual operational run beyond +144hrs is a waste of time, here are a couple of comparisons from the ECM and GFS showing their thoughts from 10 days ago on today's conditions together with the actual conditions which have developed:

ECM  -240hrs showing 8th March:             ECM  today's chart for 8th March:

 image.thumb.gif.0e964d7eb5950ff8966491600f1d2e06.gif   image.thumb.gif.ecf9122c4091b4e88d1ab36385123964.gif

GFS  -222hrs showing today:                     GFS  today's chart:

 image.thumb.png.67de341026818f34f8a507d1e400beec.png   image.thumb.png.cb683e574c8732308eec30ac9a2a4407.png

Its odd that both the ECM and the GFS showed a similar picture 10 days ago, but both got it wrong!!  Other than the general return to an active Atlantic with low pressure the main influence, neither model managed to get any of the details right.  There is no doubt that anything showing at +240 is almost certainly not going to verify.  But you knew that, didn't you?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

If anyone still needs persuading that relying on any individual operational run beyond +144hrs is a waste of time, here are a couple of comparisons from the ECM and GFS showing their thoughts from 10 days ago on today's conditions together with the actual conditions which have developed:

Its odd that both the ECM and the GFS showed a similar picture 10 days ago, but both got it wrong!!  Other than the general return to an active Atlantic with low pressure the main influence, neither model managed to get any of the details right.  There is no doubt that anything showing at +240 is almost certainly not going to verify.  But you knew that, didn't you?

 

Your never going to be that accurate that far out - its a strongly +AO / NAO setup which it got right.

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