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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

All roads leading to Rome at the moment, JMA T264:

image.thumb.jpg.64ddb230c03d060d85638e898f4b301f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.cbd5c46ed1b0ddddaf6c3a6adf85f554.jpg

The key thing is the amplification in the Atlantic sector with the cold air in place over the UK.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Just got back in from work and i have to say there has been upgrades in the cold hunt this afternoon,the gfs/gfsp 12z have several bites at cold from the north/NW from 144hrs> to the end,not looked at the individual ens from gefs yet

here is a few frames from this site and snow starting from this Sun,and even the Channel islands gets in on the act(forecasted),in fact anyone is in with a shout next week❄️❄️❄️?️☺️

http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2

final_synop_2_2019030412_144.thumb.jpg.f5d979eac0e775142c89cda47afbc923.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019030412_156.thumb.jpg.b0a3e191dd942fe0f6a7013368c23aeb.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019030412_159.thumb.jpg.7cd4c0da2e5e210e0565312b9058f240.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019030412_177.thumb.jpg.26e272528a253d0471a56bcfd1469afe.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019030412_180.thumb.jpg.b8a731dddd0ebce72532823953a577c1.jpgfinal_synop_2_2019030412_192.thumb.jpg.2cee89502adaf4091442de831adf1995.jpg

the 18z isn't too shoddy either,the gfs in fl goes for a Scandi high but the gfs/p goes for another northerly,great model output at the moment and one final thing that i have noticed is that low height's are forecasted to lift out to our NW allowing heights to build there creating more amplification

lets see how this goes through the week,can we keep the momentum up for a final cold shot before winters out?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
ADDING INFO
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Ecm mean from the 0z, and then the 12z. The op being a bit lower than this morning! 

graphe_ens3.png

graphe_ens3 (1).png

That's an upgrade from this mornings suits,flatlining near -5,can it get colder nearer the term?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

That's an upgrade from this mornings suits,flatlining near -5,can it get colder nearer the term?

I think it's heading in the right direction si, let's also hope we keep up with the upgrades from gfs in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Can't believe the euphoria running through the forum tonight, it's almost like the failed Easterly chase back in January, but hopefully we get our rewards this time!! I posted some snowy graphics from the 18z earlier, just incase I missed some of your locations out.... Here goes.... 

 

Hopefully, this time.. 

THE COMPUTER SAYS OHHH YESSSSSS!!!! 

18_210_preciptype.png

18_216_preciptype.png

18_228_preciptype.png

18_240_preciptype.png

18_252_preciptype.png

CD24771667.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Low height's lifting out to our NW over NE Canada to be replaced by higher heights on the control

gensnh-0-1-216.thumb.png.5aedbc2dda83d113d578a2cd47d163d0.png

ties in with the anomoly charts from cpc 8-14 days and the eps.

814day_03.thumb.gif.f5b47a85a1edf70713802ec404b7293f.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.76435abaeefd00cc6ad0a27ac1d88913.png

can we slow that spinning wheel to our north called the pv?

the AO tanking into neg values but the NAO is in two minds.

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.ca7ed8179626ae86ebd11c2d02e927e9.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6fc5085018604129533ec192c223853f.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

image.thumb.png.4b30257afbf6b7eeb6d3d89ea55bdcfa.png

Have you been diggling with the gefs members Feb

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Climate reanlyser, which uses GFS data, is showing a real cooldown towards our North & NE for the next 10-day period;

image.thumb.png.e316f289882ecacc98d0bcd7a4d8fcc9.png

Compared to the next 3-day average

image.thumb.png.bc34659ba57782c47e8b5c16a2c9de68.png

Also, the historically cold weather that has been plaguing the US over the last few days (and for much of the last month or so in the Northern/Central US); more especially  brutal in the beautiful state of Montana where February was the coldest on record, or second coldest where in some parts the anomaly was 9-13°C below average! is easing.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The cold on offer into next week looks very transient more cool than cold. Cold enough for snow at times esp on gfs. The problem as ever though is whether the gfs is overstating the cold potential.

It's bright here now as I type. Spring is taking hold even if the weather wants one last hurrah!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, KTtom said:

The Azores high comes to piddle on everyone party ...story of the winter...

ECMOPEU00_144_1-6.png

watch  it disappear when it’s too late for cold weather to influence the weather regarding snow etc.Models trending away from anything notably wintry away from high ground this morning 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, KTtom said:

The Azores high comes to piddle on everyone party ...story of the winter...

ECMOPEU00_144_1-6.png

Gutted!  Nothing changes this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

The cold on offer into next week looks very transient more cool than cold. Cold enough for snow at times esp on gfs. The problem as ever though is whether the gfs is overstating the cold potential.

It's bright here now as I type. Spring is taking hold even if the weather wants one last hurrah!

It also looks marginal for the south as always. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 hours ago, KTtom said:

The Azores high comes to piddle on everyone party ...story of the winter...

ECMOPEU00_144_1-6.png

Yassssss queen

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

I'm of the opinion it's better  to underlay what is being shown. Then and shock horror charts come into the reliable even then be cautious and underplay them. Then you don't get so gutted when it all. Goes Ts Up

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Downgrades don't hurt like they did in winter, next stop..April!

The Gfs 00z operational becomes more spring-like after mid March with high pressure building north.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The El Nino continues to strengthen so in theory cold episodes this spring should be likely. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

However, what catches my eye, is the CFS, which looks determined to strengthen the el nino even further as we head towards autumn. The last few years have seen world records broken even with a weak enso so i am worried to see a moderate event on the horizon.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

The 06 GFS showing a wintry Picture Sunday through to Wednesday especially Birmingham Northwards snow especially on high ground but not Exclusively probably falling to quite modest levels at times.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Certainly a colder outlook into Wk2 on the 6z compared to this mornings run.

2086778622_viewimage(31).thumb.png.f273373d181cdd038868c3f462e5637e.png1633985300_viewimage(32).thumb.png.d0dcd0229257e4a8094f86f94f1e236c.png

 

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