Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

No sign of any high pressure or warmer weather on the 12z. Pretty cold but probably not cold enough for snow at lower levels, the worst kind of weather.

Boo-urns!!

That's not gonna go down to well with the cold hunt massive!! 

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

That's not gonna go down to well with the cold hunt massive!! 

Yup all 12 of them 

[Steve C]

10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

No sign of any high pressure or warmer weather on the 12z. Pretty cold but probably not cold enough for snow at lower levels, the worst kind of weather.

Boo-urns!!

Yep, I'm seeing big Spring showers, with a wintry mix. Don't mind this tbh though.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup all 12 of them 

That's about 9 more than febuary!

[Frosty.]

It's looking better for coldies, we've suffered for the last 3 months but march could bring some belated joy..better late than never!!

[snowfish1]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I nearly fell through the floor when I clocked this chart!!!! Wowzer!!! 

What's your name..... RUMPLESTILTSKIN?  

[feb1991blizzard]

@Quicksilver1989

The GFS 12z gives a covering of snow across huge swathes of the midlands and 4 inches for modest elevation in NW England.

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@Quicksilver1989

The GFS 12z gives a covering of snow across huge swathes of the midlands and 4 inches for modest elevation in NW England.

Yes the 12zs are potentially wintry but I think the uppers are too low and may be 1 or 2 degrees warmer as per the ECM. Happy to be proved wrong but I believe things will be on the wrong side of marginal. However if that low next weekend is really that deep then we may get more colder air coming in which may tip things on the right side of marginal over favoured areas.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

What's your name..... RUMPLESTILTSKIN?  

There's nothing fairytale about that  chart! A bit of jackanory perhaps!

[KTtom]

Apart from the milder blip as the trough moves through, it's really quite a stark period of below average temps to mid month...ok, no freeze with days on end of crisp lying snow, but with the instability, some I interesting weather watching times ahead from next week...

 

[chris55]

Winter is done guys and girls, spring is here, the nights are drawing out. 

Of course snowfall is still more than possible (even likely for some). But we are on the ‘other side’ now heading away from winter into spring/summer. It’s been a poor winter season generally for many (though not here, heaviest snowfall for 10 years!) so in term of the big freeze we turn our attention to next winter 

Current models looking unsettled and cool, perhaps even below average for March. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Over 70 members currently browsing!! There as been under 20 at times over the last few weeks!! It tells ya things are looking up in the not to distant future, give yourselves a big pat on the back  folks!

[Frosty.]

To me the models are screaming wintry potential for the time of year, the Gfs / Gefs certainly is!!! not the severe cold we saw this time last year but certainly much better than the dross most of us have endured through dec, jan and feb!..I think many of us have a chance of snow, potentially several chances during the next two to three weeks, I don't think it will only be the north and high ground..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm mean from the 0z, and then the 12z. The op being a bit lower than this morning! 

[E17boy]

Evening peeps

Hope you all are ok, what a change a week makes. Last week it was the unusual warmth making headlines and today it has been the wind and drop in temperatures. Just goes to show how much of a swing our current weather is having.

the next few weeks look cool or below average temperatures. There will be wind, rain, frost, sleet and snow and it may be on different days we experience this weather. There may be even some wintry surprises coming up especially if the charts verefy.

Anyway peeps I always like to come on here now and again and just say hello to you all. Keep up all the great posts. 

Speak to you soon

take care stay safe all

regards

[Mike Poole]

Interesting model output today for sure.  Normally I wouldn't be optimistic of anything snowy in March down south apart from exceptional synoptics like we saw last year.  But the 12z runs do give some chances for snow, FV3 looks good at T216:

Well worth watching...could be a wintry sting in the tail!

Edited March 4, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

T216 looks about the time that most of the runs have the cold uppers over us, here's the GEFS and ECMWF means at that time:

-4 or colder on the mean over most of the country, and with low pressure close by, the question is will precipitation fall as snow?  Now we are in March, and it is marginal, time of day will be an issue, and also evaporative cooling will come into play if the precipitation is heavy enough.   One last chase folks! 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

It becomes increasingly difficult for very cold conditions to reach central and especially southern uk from now on but this from the GEFS 12z blows that out of the water!!..P7 please!!

[Singularity]

I've been searching for the most likely driving forces behind the retraction of the subtropical high out west, with some mid-Atlantic ridging instead, in the 6-14 day range.

It's not been easy and I think I know why; we've got lagged effects from the MJO crossing P2 at decent amplitude at a time when there is an El Nino base state pretty well established (at long last!), and there are few historical cases of this. In fact I can only find 5 useful analogue days going back to 1950!

Those 5 show the jet tracking south of usual, but not extremely so, such that the UK bears the brunt of the LP systems. They also show the Azores High shunted west of the usual position. The mid-Atlantic ridging isn't really there, but I believe this comes from the rise in GLAAM taking place while the MJO continues on at high amplitude into phase 3 (again, an unusual occurrence during a Nino base state); the main poleward ridging occurs west of the UK instead of through or just east of it (which is what would usually happen).

It's another low-reliability composite due to only a few historical cases, but it's a decent fit to the model trends of late for the 8-14 day period.

Really interesting how much this is being shown to overcome the organised stratospheric polar vortex - assuming, of course, that the models have that right!

The MJO's then expected to continue on past phase 3 if you follow the convective component (the H-W diagrams are too sensitive to the actually less important circulation component), but at increasingly low amplitude, while the AAM cycle will likely see the GWO carry out an orbit through P6-7-8, which also supports a cool type of pattern with only a weak settling own trend with time to comfort us, suggesting that it'll come down to either that polar vortex reconnecting with the troposphere, or the MJO gaining amplitude across the West Pacific, if things are to settle down and/or warm up much within the next few weeks.

It's not the best outlook for those seeking spring warmth in March, but the processes underway might be laying some good foundations to work with later in the season and into the summer.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run rolling, but I want to highlight one particular issue, here T108:

That primate's head of -24 cold south of Greenland.  Unusual!  Ultimately the source of cold air that might potentially deliver snow for the UK without blocking in the usual places at all.  

[damianslaw]

A shift in pattern about to happen, akin to events of late January, UK locked on the colder side of the polar front jet, takes a few days to get there for the south, but everywhere will be come the weekend, and the longer term outlook for mid March is looking generally cold with an airstream from between west and north. There is much cold air bottled up over the arctic region and this is wanting to displace into mid lattitudes, the very deep cold air over NE Canada will spill out into the NW atlantic and fire the jet into gusto on a more southerly track. 

NW parts of Cumbria had snow down to sea level yesterday evening in not especially cold uppers, the synoptics for early next week if they verify as shown do indicate a high chance of a snowy surprise for some.

 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T192:

What's not to like?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T192:

What's not to like?

If we had the ECM on board now, i would be calling some disruptive snow potential with this.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfs still flying the flag for snow, here is just a little taster for early next week! I tell ya what my animals are starting to act strange, trust me they know!

[Bristawl Si]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T192:

What's not to like?

It's Cheltenham week, so no thanks. Maybe a repeat of 1987 at The Festival.