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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
15 minutes ago, minus86BriJ said:

There might be some of this for y’all so, lovely fist sized flakes hammering down now.

 

 

Overall a cold and snowy GFS run.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

OK I'm gerrin excited, gfs 12z painting a snowy picture come next weekend and beyond! Considering the 0z and 12s are considered the more reliable, that's me on board! I think it's about time we had a snow day and failed to show for work!!, we deserve it. 

12_168_preciptype.png

12_180_preciptype.png

12_222_preciptype.png

12_240_preciptype.png

12_252_preciptype.png

bosses-be-like-you-still-coming-to-work-right-14432341.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

GFSp has a few decent coverings as well.. 

F0F362F2-6B04-4A79-85A5-224BAB0901F7.png

 

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp has a few decent coverings as well.. 

F0F362F2-6B04-4A79-85A5-224BAB0901F7.png

7971CF98-B160-4753-A803-110CE73C8C20.png

Indeed, and looking at the GFSP Tim the mild sectors seem to be getting more narrow and short lived with time! 

gfs-1-204.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some lovely eye candy for snow starved coldies on the Gfs today..the 12z especially!..let it snow..it's spring!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Some lovely eye candy for snow starved coldies on the Gfs today..the 12z especially!..let it snow..it's spring!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

How do ya like these apples frosty! The ensembles showing more runs pushing the - 6 to - 8 boundaries! If it was Christmas now....... I would sing. THE WEATHER OUTSIDE MAY BE FRIGHTFUL.... THE GFS CHARTS ARE DELIGHTFUL..... LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!!!

graphe3_1000_259_92___.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Mattwolves said:

How do ya like these apples frosty! The ensembles showing more runs pushing the - 6 to - 8 boundaries! If it was Christmas now....... I would sing. THE WEATHER OUTSIDE MAY BE FRIGHTFUL.... THE GFS CHARTS ARE DELIGHTFUL..... LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!!!

those uppers of convection should be fine now, but not in Dec and Jan, needs to be -10 here off W/NW'lys

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

those uppers of convection should be fine now, but not in Dec and Jan, needs to be -10 here off W/NW'lys

Snowing with these uppers in parts of Ireland right now with 532 dam thickness or  -3 / -4 850's...don't need -10 apparently!

12_6_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Snowing with these uppers in parts of Ireland right now with 532 dam thickness or  -3 / -4 850's...don't need -10 apparently!

12_6_ukthickness850.png

What they do have is ground and dew points of 0c though 

4820321E-E4A5-4788-BF17-5ED72855CBBE.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Snowing with these uppers in parts of Ireland right now with 532 dam thickness or  -3 / -4 850's...don't need -10 apparently!

12_6_ukthickness850.png

not a convective setup though, but don't need as cold in March anyway, don't need -10

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What they do have is ground and dew points of 0c though 

4820321E-E4A5-4788-BF17-5ED72855CBBE.jpeg

Just shows there are so many factors involved..you would look at the chart i posted and say MEH if you're a coldie but anyway..winter was absolutely pathetic..early spring showing winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I know this isn't going to sound popular with those looking for early spring snowfall, but I think we are looking at a period of zonal weather for the next week, at least in the south.  

ECM 12z at T168, very zonal:

image.thumb.jpg.469bb89f0d39e21ace9443e72ed0e6bb.jpg

I think it is unlikely that we get a decent late cold blast now, because of the strat vortex continuing to gain in intensity to verging on record levels according to GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.8702c3c8da070c6fde16fa36c959c3cf.jpg

ECM does draw down a northerly at T240 but I have no confidence this will verify.

image.thumb.jpg.5ae454d6c7d961e9504457210dba6034.jpg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Perhaps the first hints of a change emerging on the models tonight:

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.35e18473d65f15dfae23368f960b106b.gif

Not 100% what's happening here with the closed LP north of the Azores but on other models that gets picked up in the flow and crosses southern England. Has ECM picked up on another signal with the Atlantic slowing and amplifying?

GFS OP and Parallel at the same time are very different:

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.8810c12db2b2131d8784d8fc3c9ed3f0.pnggfs-0-240-P.thumb.png.d3a43ce226ed7901425ad7dbf96f4042.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Over next Friday/Saturday the ecm has fronts crossing the country bringing rain and quite strong winds. And then after a very brief ridge the the upper trough dominates the Atlantic to the W/NW by 1200 Sunday with a myriad of surface features floating around, including an intense little low about to cross Scotland giving another wet and windy day.

t126.thumb.png.e9bbe1593b177d5d278ce68149d4af91.pngt168.thumb.png.103da301eb945ef549e9d4ec23f1089e.pngt168s.thumb.png.dfaaf65125f95706d83905bdea899a97.png

Essentially this is the story until the end of the run, unsettled with periods of rain/showers, interspersed with sunny intervals but towards the end there some amplification from the subtropical high in the western Atlantic which forces a a quite nasty trough south east over the UK. But that's a long way off

t216.thumb.png.97664f8b1fe55048ed153b472be12006.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z is a very unsettled  mixed bag of cold, average and mild days / nights..these are my cherry picked highlights!..on at least a few days there is potential for snow falling on lower ground and further south!

120_thickuk.png

192_thickuk.png

192_thick.png

240_thickuk.png

240_thick.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I know this isn't going to sound popular with those looking for early spring snowfall, but I think we are looking at a period of zonal weather for the next week, at least in the south.  

ECM 12z at T168, very zonal:

image.thumb.jpg.469bb89f0d39e21ace9443e72ed0e6bb.jpg

I think it is unlikely that we get a decent late cold blast now, because of the strat vortex continuing to gain in intensity to verging on record levels according to GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.8702c3c8da070c6fde16fa36c959c3cf.jpg

ECM does draw down a northerly at T240 but I have no confidence this will verify.

image.thumb.jpg.5ae454d6c7d961e9504457210dba6034.jpg

 

 

Two observations - first, I agree there's little prospect for lying snow in lowland southern Britain but I think the current set-up and especially next week does offer prospects for snow to high ground in many areas.

Second, the PV, as you say, continues almost as if it were mid-winter rather than early spring. However, just the very first signs on the 12Z output of a new burst of Wave 1 from the Eurasian side after mid month. As was discussed last night, the question is whether the final warming will be slow and unremarkable or whether we could see an SSW-like burst of heat in late March or early April which could enable HLB in mid April and beyond.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

I think it is unlikely that we get a decent late cold blast now, because of the strat vortex continuing to gain in intensity to verging on record levels according to GFS:

image.thumb.png.3be7c04e17e7e2a3ed0da23ba2d32e1d.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think the general concensus during the winter months from the Met and folk on here was that severe cold and snow Was literally a given! So I assume its relatively simple now to say any cold snap or low level snow is not gonna happen as we enter spring. Gfs points to snow opportunities galore, ecm to a certain degree, but not to the same extreme! I think even the boys from the Met mention cold at times, showers turning wintry, frosts likely! So I'm quite surprised to hear a few on here calling it as a mobile rain and showers, and temps around average no go, done deal situation! If only the weather was quite that simple!!! 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)

It's actually snowing (and settling) in Carlisle! was this in the models?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

It's actually snowing (and settling) in Carlisle! was this in the models?

I didn't hear any mention of it, but it proves the point of how these type of set ups will bring surprise snowfalls. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well actually it was but judging from many of the posts in here today it's not worth the time and effort posting in this thread,

I have not seen a post in here today stating there will be snow this evening! 

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