Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[The PIT]

36 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

144z? too far out

Yup well outside the reliable time frame

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yup well outside the reliable time frame

If it was showing mild it would be nailed on at day 6 range!!

Anyway, I think there is some interest for coldies in the next few weeks due to predominantly cold zonality with the jet further south and there is a chance of snow, mostly for northern hills and mountains but there is a possibility of at least a few wintry surprises further south and lower ground too!

Edited February 28, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yup well outside the reliable time frame

Apart from anything else it should put in into context. There is a low tracking east, then a brief northerly, before a transient ridge. Not exactly unexpected in this type of forthcoming pattern

Edited February 28, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is pretty chilly at times including day 10 which suggests even colder air beyond T+240 as the main low continues to track further east with a ridge building north in the atlantic..could mean some arctic air drawn south.

[ANYWEATHER]

From the ops models some stormy cold weather at times  as we move into March  but nothing to wintry....as yet.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean clearly shows it becoming colder next week, especially further north so the chances of wintry precipitation increases and not exclusively on northern hills!..this is followed by a brief lull before increasingly cold zonality powers up again which could veer more towards the arctic longer term as the operational suggested..it's certainly not a boring outlook, that's for sure!

[SMU]

A good 240 HR recovery chart for the scottish Ski resorts-

Possibly Irish mountains as well!

[feb1991blizzard]

No EC46 update yet.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No EC46 update yet.

Not bothered, more interested in the possibility of some wintry ppn during the next week or two..and there is some support for that with more of a Pm than Tm influence!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yet again the 18s throw up some real wintry scenarios, parts of scotland could see a fair amount, even other parts not immune as cold air gets dragged into the mix. Yes it's officially spring, but bring it on I say!! 

[BlackburnChris]

Live in quite a high area (250m asl) but not convinced..... 

[knocker]

Outlook - Unsettled and eventually temps dropping to around average or a tad below. But in the interim the track and final destination of this weekends low has been, and still is, causing the odd headache.

The NH 500mb and surface urinalysis for midnight and the 9400 UK chart

Any lingering fronts will basically lose their identity today but it will remain cloudy and mild in most areas. The possible exception to this will be the in the W/SW where the cloud should break giving some temps still way above average. But by late afternoon cloud and rain will arrive over Ireland and the south west as an occlusion tracks east

The front and rain belt will continue to track east across the country through this evening and overnight with the rain becoming more fragmented, before finally clearing into the North Sea by dawn. Meanwhile the oft mentioned low is deepening rapidly west of Ireland

So Saturday will start quite sunny and dry but rain and strengthening winds will be quickly into N. Ireland and the north west courtesy of fronts associated with the now very deep low to the WNW of Ireland. The heavy rain will track south and east during the day to be across Wales and the north by evening accompanied by strong winds Temps still way above average, particularly in some regions.

Over Saturday evening the rain will clear and through Sunday the low drifts around to the north west of Scotland, and with some troughs embedded in the flow some strong winds and frequent wintry showers in the north with perhaps some snow on the high ground. Meanwhile waves continue to form on the trailing front to the south west and one will bring more continuous rain to the south through Sunday, Temps still way above average in England and Wales but average elsewhere

Over Monday and Tuesday the low continues to fill and drift over the northern regions of the UK and with the odd trough and front in the mix this is a formula for sunshine and showers, particularly in the western and norther regions where they could well be frequent and squally by Tuesday with thunder and hail in the mix, The south and east having the best of the weather over the two days with temps now around average generally

Edited March 1, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

To continue with the gfs. The low continues to fill and drift into North Sea through the middle;e of the week so sunny interval and showers still but by Thursday the next front arrives from the west as the Atlantic steps up a gear, (this has been covered in previous posts)

Thus a wet day on Thursday but worse is quickly to follow as a low that has formed in the baroclinic breeding ground off the eastern seaboard has tracked rapidly north east across an environment facilitating cyclogenesis to be 966mnb just north of Scotland by 1800 Friday bringing some wet and very windy weather with severe gales in the north

From here over the weekend into the beginning of the following week very unsettled and windy and. given the source of the cold air hinting the Atlantic, some, transient quite wintry conditions cannot be ruled out as systems quickly track E/NE

[knocker]

This morning's fax update for 1200 Sunday with the wave now an enclosed system south of Ireland

The ecm still keen to develop the low mid week and track it east to phase it with the trough in situ and bring some very wet and windy weather to Wales and the southern half of England with perhaps some snow on the high ground on Wednesday/Thursday. Thereafter pretty much along the same lines as the gfs with obviously the detail varying

Footnote

Yesterday my cousin Carol posted some photos on her Facebook page of some snowy scenes from the freezing cold of this time last year. I was forced to point out that she should realise that there are a load of people out there who start hyperventilating and going weak at the knees at the thought of a repeat. She could well be responsible for some serious mental distress

Edited March 1, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[booferking]

Wet cool windy outlook great.

[Kentspur]

Did the EC46 come out Im guessing it's not pretty judging by no comments on it?

[Selliso]

6 hours ago, BlackburnChris said:

Live in quite a high area (250m asl) but not convinced..... 

I used to live in Egerton, not far from you and similar altitide (about 225m asl) - the issue I always found was too much modification from the Irish Sea. Just a few more miles to the east, say Haslingden, and the snow could be falling while Egerton had cold rain! 

[Alexis]

I see the Met Office are pushing Storm Freya on Sunday much further north than the BBC's new model of choice.

[Methuselah]

A rather unpleasant evolution IMO...the only salvation, I can see, being that overland convection might get going, as we approach the equinox?

[IDO]

Looking at the D16 strat profile and we can see why the trop pattern looks dire...

D16 strat>>D16 trop>>>

...back with a vengeance since the SSW. A wet cool start to Spring definitely the form choice.

No forcing from the sub-tropics apparent and the MJO looks like having minimal effect on the UK region.

On the surface, for the south, cold rain at worst, windy at times, a cool breeze as the lows moves east, all rather Autumnal and it looks like we are paying for the non-downwelling with a belligerent trop PV:

London>>>

No sign of mid or high latitude blocking so the chances of anything resembling a late cold wintry burst is a bust ATM.

The CET of +3.2c (27th) above the climate is astonishing and I would think that many forecasters have had epic Winter fails.

As for the SSW downwelling, I remain to be convinced how much that impacted on the trop pattern Jan & Feb:

source: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101143674883317760

 

So to summarize, zonal to westerly flow for D1-D? remains the guide and a bit after the Lord Mayors Show from my perspective.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the D16 strat profile and we can see why the trop pattern looks dire...

D16 strat>>D16 trop>>>

...back with a vengeance since the SSW. A wet cool start to Spring definitely the form choice.

 

This may give some respite to the Arctic ice which once again has suffered this winter from frequent plumes of warm air. 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the D16 strat profile and we can see why the trop pattern looks dire...

D16 strat>>

...bac

 

So to

Yes we need a decent final warming now to give us a nice episode of proper blocking.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I fail to see how this is a bust! Any SSW that was to take place later in March followed by a normal trop response, but would surely just deliver a cool and miserable wet spring! We are going past the point of hlb bringing sustainable very cold temps and widespread snowfall. Gfs6z still pointing to a lot of snow at times in the north, and at times as winds veer NWTLY snow could be an issue further south, especially towards next weekend! These maybe fleeting glances, but the north Atlantic is currently packing a punch for cold uppers! 

Edit... In all fairness I didn't even see graphics like these back in mid winter!! Could be worse.... A lot worse. 

[knocker]

Following on from this morning's fax the gfs take on Freya at 0600 Some very strong winds here where depending and on the track and maybe up to 70-80mph gusts This post should warrant some more sad emojis

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by knocker

[stodge]

Afternoon all

As you were and remarkable unanimity across the models - the 06Z Parallel brings the Azores HP a little further north but basically the Atlantic train dominates the first half of the month and some quite chilly conditions in prospect at times with transient pulses of cold PM air bringing snow to northern hills and occasionally to northern lower ground with frosts likely in any transient HP ridges with these frosts quite sharp and quite far south as you'd expect.

IDO commented on the PV which I commented on yesterday. It remains hugely resilient and frankly maintains the Atlantic train preventing serious amplification from either north or south.

As feb1991blizzard commented above, there will be a final warming and we'll need to see the nature of that. Will it be rapid and substantial or long drawn out and feeble? The former, which would amount to a very late SSW (I know we don't call it that) would be very interesting as there's plenty of cold air up at the higher latitudes and were the PV to break down suddenly things could get very interesting. I've seen snow in London in April so to rule out a late severe incursion seems foolish even though there's no sign of it currently.