Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Was just gonna point out regarding the above post, are the uppers cold enough for snow to the south, ecm has that low pressure just to the south, but currently indicating - 4 uppers, but lower temps to the north, one to watch for sure regarding the track, the situation is likely to change quite a lot! 

edit... Some really cold uppers to our north, could be an interesting next week! 

feel as though snow is much easier to get in March and more especially April, at least here, feels as though nothing has to be as cold

[Frosty.]

Just for once this winter..or is it summer?..really confusing!..can an Ecm run showing cold and in places snow..please verify!!!! 

[knocker]

Although the pattern is beginning to change this evening, and continues over the rest of the week, culminating in a wet and windy weekend, like the gfs. the ecm has a further change starting around t156, into a much more mobile scenario, Ergo very unsettled with temps varying around average but probably a tad below by the end

Edited February 27, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also introduces much colder air into the north next week and colder air generally across the uk as was the case with the operational..there could be some wintry weather evolving, especially further north which would no doubt be a shock to the system following all the summery warmth and unbroken sunshine..whether it turns significantly colder next week or not..it's going to be feeling much cooler from tomorrow with some showery rain across southern uk and then widely more unsettled thereafter with strong winds at times..BIG CHANGES afoot!

Edited February 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

According to the GEFS ensembles London could be in trouble by the 5th of March, just look at that snow row spike!!!! Strooth, its like the eifel tower! Snowmageddon incoming! Sure it's gone off on one

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

According to the GEFS ensembles London could be in trouble by the 5th of March, just look at that snow row spike!!!! Strooth, its like the eifel tower! Snowmageddon incoming! Sure it's gone off on one

There is good support for a potentially wintry flavour developing next week from the Gfs / Gefs/ Ecm op / mean...could be something for coldies to celebrate in the not too distant future!oh boy it's been a rotton stinking winter..time for some early spring snow??❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited February 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

A quick look in the EPS ext period to get a feel where we going with the pattern change. Less amplification upstream vis the Alaskan ridge/Canadian vortex combo and although the latter is still active the the vortex is now quite diffuse over the Arctic. But there is still a strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard around the subtropical and over the UK so portending unsettled with temps a tad below average.This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

[Frosty_wsm]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sigh! more snow south of the M4, they've had enough this winter!

 

Is this a wind up? We've had one snow event here, I've lost count of how many winters  (the majority!) where down here we end up missing out on multiple snow events during the winter that end up being an M4 North event! 

So if it indeed ended up happening again I'd call it payback for all those winters lol.

[knocker]

Worth noting that the first week in March could well set some cold records In America

Edited February 27, 2019 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, the False Spring has come and nearly gone.  A Sunsational spell of weather for late winter , Has it happened before Yes It As, long before reliable weather records were taken,  I said a false Spring , April looks very cold perhaps historically , so perhaps March stormy cold predictictions  ,May  well be the first month of normal late Spring. The Wild undulating jet stream continues across the planet,  ,thanks to a cooling planet and sun and lunar activity 

[damianslaw]

A marked change starting tomorrow, all thanks to a resurgent atlantic, temperatures still above average for  few more days in the south at least, becoming average everywhere early next week, a bit colder than average in the north - it will feel cold everywhere under strong winds, little sun and much rain with snow on higher ground, and perhaps lower levels into next week for the north, with cold uppers invading, sub 528 dam air, becoming sub 522 dam air, in early March means low level snow highly likely.

Longer term - a volatile situation, significant cold pool spilling into NE atlantic, could result in strong winds/gales, secondary low development, and eventually cold cyclonic conditions, with every threat of a widespread snow event I think.. with signs of a more fragmented PV, and crucially its core moving away from N Canada and into Siberia which would allow height rises to the north west.

Edited February 27, 2019 by damianslaw

[Weather roller-coaster]

March is one month's which can come with any extremes very warm to snow big rain showers winds have enjoyed the sunshine but it's gone dry again soil was hard today out the garden this forum and weather models keeps us on our toes though the seasons of the year.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hay guys

been browsing for a couple of weeks on here and i see the cold hunt thread has gone,well i am still hunting....

the ens has been steadfast at decreasing the temps over the last few days from showing a flatlining of 0c isotherm to near -5 now so upgrades on a cooler/colder feal to things as we go through next week

i see models are toying with height rises into Scandi or the Atlantic but what i have seen of late is for systems to track in a nw>se trajectory,back to square one like late jan?

it has been an exeptional feb for warmth and i have enjoyed it,it gets me out and about and to get things done early in the garden of which is a bonus and feel uplifted,i have not got out this early in the garden in the entire time i have been on this forum,is it june?

a shock to the system coming next week but it is not unheard of as late feb/early march can throw everything at us whether it be warm days or frigid  beast's

don't hang up your sledges yet,you could be putting your flip flops away.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some bizarre 18z graphics for the upcoming 2 weeks, just selected a few, and we basically have a mix of rain/sleet/snow. Gonna be a lot going on for sure! 

[feb1991blizzard]

First genuinely 'proper blocked cold' chart on the ops for a while.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First genuinely 'proper blocked cold' chart on the ops for a while.

Woooohooooo, do I detect Greenland height rises!!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First genuinely 'proper blocked cold' chart on the ops for a while.

Stunning chart that is

as i have said earlyier the models are showing a block either Scandi or Atlantic,could be a long March

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Woooohooooo, do I detect Greenland height rises!!

Only 2 weeks away..what could possibly go wrong?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Woooohooooo, do I detect Greenland height rises!!

probably wouldn't turn into a HLB (watch the evolution from 360-384) but the uppers are cold enough for inland convection at this time of year so very heavy snow showers could develop almos anywhere i would think.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Only 2 weeks away..what could possibly go wrong?

If this was a heatwave, I tell you what frosty it would be nailed on. But I'm liking that chart Feb has just posted..... I'm liking it a lot.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

probably wouldn't turn into a HLB (watch the evolution from 360-384) but the uppers are cold enough for inland convection at this time of year so very heavy snow showers could develop almos anywhere i would think.

You had me at the word SNOW Feb, its been a long time coming, but it's coming Feb, IT'S COMING HOME!!! 

[Purga]

Nice northerly to blow the mild cobwebs away

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

You had me at the word SNOW Feb, its been a long time coming, but it's coming Feb, IT'S COMING HOME!!! 

EPS aren't great tbh although i have only looked at the London graph so i suppose they wouldn't look all that special for an urban heat effect area in March from a N'ly.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Nice northerly to blow the mild cobwebs away

This winter has been purga-tory!!..hope the 18z is right

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS aren't great tbh although i have only looked at the London graph so i suppose they wouldn't look all that special for an urban heat effect area in March from a N'ly.

Yep, London has a big anti cold dome around it! The 12s look pretty good up north, still waiting on the 18s