Cyclone Oma

[crimsone]

We never talk about the south in here...

... but this one is lovely in so far as nobody seems quite sure where it's going to go. For a while there the models were split between Australia and New Zealand, but it looks like they've vaguely settled for Australia for now...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH152019

Edited February 21, 2019 by crimsone

[Styx]

It looks like Oma won't cross the Australia coast now. BoM has dropped its cyclone advice for Queensland. Predicted to steer north up the Queensland coast as a weak system, but well offshore. 

[crimsone]

Looks like it's forecast to do a really tight loop de loop, and head off back up towards Cairns or PNG.



That said, it's developed a decent trough stretching from just S.W of its center to a comparatively weak low center a bit NE of NZ's North Island, which is forecast to become fully occluded by 1am sunday (New Zealand Time), with a high building into the Tasman Sea... but with another nasty antarctic low trying to break through below it.

Perhaps it'll just fall apart out at sea instead?

Edited February 22, 2019 by crimsone
wrong day