Jump to content

Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

Recommended Posts

With the core cold on our side of the NH for a change, even a zonal flow can deliver short sharp spells of cold as lows march across the UK arena, and Arctic air moves south:

anim_eig9.gif

Most of that cold will be from the following ridge, so cold and dry after a cold front slides south.

PM air following in the wake...

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 484
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time ! 

Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise t

Highly unlikely. Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)? Many on here need to grasp some

Posted Images

16 minutes ago, IDO said:

With the core cold on our side of the NH for a change, even a zonal flow can deliver short sharp spells of cold as lows march across the UK arena, and Arctic air moves south:

anim_eig9.gif

Most of that cold will be from the following ridge, so cold and dry after a cold front slides south.

PM air following in the wake...

pretty much sums up first 2 weeks of march

Link to post
Share on other sites

Still continuing with the downward theme on the 12z ensembles, cold enough for snow at height and especially north, got a feeling if Scotland gets a fair bit of snow, a fair few on netweather may be taking a wee break up there! I know I bloody will! ?

graphe3_1000_232_77___.gif

  • Like 8
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Always sensible to have a jumper/jumpers on in Febuary ☺. I always take two to work. Unless u work in a gym or office. Forever taking them off putting them on again, that's without mentioning the coats, hats and scarfs ?Especially when cloudy/shady @feb1991blizzard@Stonethecrows both the same lol ?

Back to models though and looking forward to the change

56 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Talk about over blowing the lows, looking at the 6zp and then the 12z at similar time frames ?

gfs-0-312.png

gfs-0-312 (1).png

Which one would u prefer Mr Wolf? Does FV3 have a habit of blowing up lows in the Atlantic?

12z for me as possible height rises towards greenland, even though purple yoghurt is thicker on the wrong side of Atlantic again, rather than brief cold shots on the 6z and pv on our side? back yard opinion though as in Kent.

Still hope ?

Has been very warm/mild at times today though and does feel like early summer, altough still being in winter! ?

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, icykev said:

Always sensible to have a jumper/jumpers on in Febuary ☺. I always take two to work. Unless u work in a gym or office. Forever taking them off putting them on again, that's without mentioning the coats, hats and scarfs ?Especially when cloudy/shady @feb1991blizzard@Stonethecrows both the same lol ?

Back to models though and looking forward to the change

Which one would u prefer Mr Wolf? Does FV3 have a habit of blowing up lows in the Atlantic?

12z for me as possible height rises towards greenland, even though purple yoghurt is thicker on the wrong side of Atlantic again, rather than brief cold shots on the 6z and pv on our side? back yard opinion though as in Kent.

Still hope ?

Has been very warm/mild at times today though and does feel like early summer, altough still being in winter! ?

I think gfs in general tends to overblow lows. The earlier 6z run was showing some westward movement of very cold air out east, but this was played down on the 12s. This is the only problem with viewing 10+day charts, the differences become extreme. But as you will be aware most of the cold signals this winter have always been at 10+days. It's definitely looking like a more Atlantic driven situation and at times as these systems clear they could be pulling down cold NW/Nthly winds, so snow is going to be an option especially at elevation and up north, but not exclusively! Not so sure about height rises to the NW kev, let's face it this really has been a rare situation of late. With all the energy coming of the Atlantic heights rises would be potentially difficult to the NE as well. But never say never, wouldn't it be bizzare after months of talking about cold blocking (etc) that some kind of block devolops into mid March and beyond. Its been a bizarre last year weather wise, and tbh kev I wouldn't rule anything out! ?

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm on a similar pattern change, albeit different detail, and at the end has shifted the upstream pattern east, dislodging the vortex resulting in another Arctic plunge.

index.thumb.png.64fabd198fbbd55155fb0e830d21c38a.png259654729_index2.thumb.png.44e4fba6b8896659b914f3285644ace4.pngtemp.thumb.png.da6f4da6c3e2f1973d6d4895f4af4a08.png

Downstream the European high pressure is just about hanging in there

t240.thumb.png.d181b17ba7558155a4f79c3e31e05ea8.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree with you tbh Mr Wolf too much energy coming out of the east coast as always. Which has stopped pressure building in the area which we desire to conduct a lasting easterly. Never going south and pushing the HP North. Only learning so forgive me! 

But interesting model changes. Love the boom charts as we all do, interesting times again ☺

GEM long range

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_288.thumb.jpg.2c36678232736facc55e9d0a8243f2e0.jpgEUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_300.thumb.jpg.fc0cf4e48aed54d24be36a2735f5597c.jpg

Waiting on GEFS etc. Exciting imo but always 10 days away ?

58 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

PV over our side can we get a ridge  mid Atlantic?

If not what has the PV got left over Canada?

ECH1-216.gif

As @winterof79 showed ,gives us an opening, can we take it. Hp in alaska pushing into greenland looks ? to me. All still @ distance though. Ever an optimist but starting to worry now even though the unspoken have changed their tune ? Which means

BOOM CHARTS INCOMING?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, icykev said:

Agree with you tbh Mr Wolf too much energy coming out of the east coast as always. Which has stopped pressure building in the area which we desire to conduct a lasting easterly. Never going south and pushing the HP North. Only learning so forgive me! 

But interesting model changes. Love the boom charts as we all do, interesting times again ☺

GEM long range

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_288.thumb.jpg.2c36678232736facc55e9d0a8243f2e0.jpgEUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_300.thumb.jpg.fc0cf4e48aed54d24be36a2735f5597c.jpg

Waiting on GEFS etc. Exciting imo but always 10 days away ?

As @winterof79 showed ,gives us an opening, can we take it. Hp in alaska pushing into greenland looks ? to me. All still @ distance though. Ever an optimist but starting to worry now even though the unspoken have changed their tune ? Which means

BOOM CHARTS INCOMING?

We are all learning in here kev as some of the posters are so good! I don't think you would learn more if you spent a month at the mett office tbh. And yep still quite a bit to play for even at this late stage. ?

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Yep so called mild spell is turning out to be more cloudy and wildly over egged temps

In  certain places maybe, but in a fair few locations temperature have been on a par to an average day in May! To say wildly overstated is a bit extreme RR. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM mean suggesting a return to normal westerly conditions by the end of the run.

image.thumb.jpg.59c63125f6ddca7bbd8493498413f5de.jpg

Well that's the form horse but we'll see.

I'm not posting much at the moment, not because I'm a coldie only, just because the interest has gone flat after a year when it has held pretty much constantly.  I started posting regularly here in late Jan last year, when the SSW was clearly forecast in the model output which later led to the BFTE ~1 March, some 6 weeks later.  Textbook.  Or so it seemed, fast forward to this winter, this time an 8 week SSW drama to comment on, but it delivered much less, yes the period late Jan early Feb, which was great for snow SW and Central Southern England but that was it and many missed out.  A fail. 

In between and starting right after the cold early spring was a memorable summer, very interesting to comment on.  I just feel slightly underwhelmed by the next couple of months as I expect them to pan out, it will get colder into March, it could not do otherwise given current warmth,  but I don't think we will see anything like last year.  And summer, well the long range models look good for heat at the moment...I'm keeping my eye on this and will comment as and when....

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Here's the latest 12z ensembles, quite a dip as we head out to the end! 

graphe_ens3.png

It is quite a dip - but it’s worth remembering the average 850 temp at the end of feb is around -3c. We are running at about 8-13c above that for the next week or so, any correction back towards normal will be steep! We’re just heading back to normal, nothing especially cold.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

It is quite a dip - but it’s worth remembering the average 850 temp at the end of feb is around -3c. We are running at about 8-13c above that for the next week or so, any correction back towards normal will be steep! We’re just heading back to normal, nothing especially cold.

Yeh your right, it's a big dip compared to what we currently have. Is this gonna be a case of as good as it gets, or can we expect more of a downward trend! Unless a major SSW takes place with one hell of quick trop response, perhaps a period of cold zonality with the occasional northerly toppler threw in as good as it gets. As Mike points out the chances of any extreme are low. I've basically given myself til mid march for something of note to occur, after that matt wolves will become the heatwave seeker!! Hell yehh, bring it on..... ?

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

A balmy continental spell ahead - if this was summer - a major heatwave, alas it is only late February, but still temperatures will be on a par with average temps experienced in early May. It will do wonders for spring bulbs, bringing a very early spring in complete contrast to last year, when we had a very delayed one. It does feel very Feb 1998..

Longer term - strong signals the atlantic will break through as March arrives with temperatures back down to average, which will after a week of unusual mildness feel chilly. Every chance we might pull down some colder air from the north/north west as move through the first week of the new month - all very normal.

Had we not such a strong northern polar front jet and strong PV lobe over NE Canada, we could have been staring at a notably cold spell similiar to this time last year, with trough disruption and easterlies then able to penetrate - we are not far off such a scenario, alas too much energy is going to ride over the top of the high, forcing it to collapse. You can see why the Met Office were suggesting chance of colder easterlies/north easterlies, but they haven't come off - bad luck this year!

On a personal note, this current impending spell is about a month too early for me, I can't get enthused about it, too early in the season, darkness setting in before 6pm still - hence I've not been in the thread much past week or so and won't until we kick this spell aside. On this note, goodbye winter 18/19 promised much, teased far too much, gave back very little. 

We are entering March-May soon, when unusual synoptics can pop up out of nowhere, spring is the most tricky season to predict, and its the most interesting season in this respect, when the probability of the atlantic winning out is at its lowest, I'm hoping for more varied affair than we've become accustomed too over recent months, when static patterns have long tired my patience.

 

  • Like 9
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...