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Paul

Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

6 days vs almost 15 days, non-comparable really.

Yeh good point. But unfortunately that's how far any cold is always put. If the gfs would have been highlighting cold at the same time frame it would still have been unlikely! 

Edited by Mattwolves

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I don't mind / care what timeframe it is..it looks nice and we haven't had much eye candy in recent times for coldies!!👍:cold-emoji:

12_348_preciptype.png

12_384_preciptype.png

12_384_ukthickness850.png

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12z ensembles out, quite a bit of scatter, but a fair few going colder into the outlook period. 👍

graphe3_1000_250_74___.gif

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This thread reminds me of December 2015 with Knocker and SS providing 70% of the content and lots of oranges and reds on the anomaly charts. I didn't think for one minute that this February would turn into such a horrendous month for cold and take my mind back to that month!

It was an interesting post from Singularity above. I suppose the message is that good background signals for cold can also work against us. Presumably the bad background signals for cold will always be bad !

I have just had a skirt through the GFS 12z NH view. Very little to get excited about based on this output. Just look at the air pressure over Iberia. It never gets below 1024mb throughout the run ! The only positive I could see was that pressure was rising over eastern Canada by the end of this run and the jet was arriving on our shores via a NW/SE trajectory. Its a long way off,certainly colder but not what the coldies amongst us would crave ( cold 850's on the GFS from PM North Westerlies are always overstated) but it may however lead to something better going forward. My gut feel and experience however remains confident of a cold and snowy period at some point during March, but more than likely mid month onwards.  

 

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Next 7-day's remaining well above average

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.cd7b835810b1059ac21f8fd213ed22fc.png

Despite orange and red dominating the chart above we've actually got some blue colours to have a look at on the 7day trend

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.36b2c61078dc27c662f53d7186901cdd.png

Northern Scandinavia is substantially above average

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Just for a change from posting anomaly charts then the measured max wind on the Yarmouth, Massachusetts, midday sounding was 202kts

gfs_uv250_noram_1.thumb.png.b4fdafc4aa6780e9ad85e0c10307b651.png

Edited by knocker

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24 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

12z ensembles out, quite a bit of scatter, but a fair few going colder into the outlook period. 👍

graphe3_1000_250_74___.gif

Looking at these over the past 3 or 4 days and the colder stuff doesn't actually seem to be moving much further forward? It always seems to be at the very end

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Our air will be coming from the caribbean for the next few days (modified by the atlantic) before switching to the canaries / nw africa!..not what the longer range outlook was indicating last month is it!!..anyway, hopefully during March we will experience air from the north pole and even russia!!..👍😁

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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at these over the past 3 or 4 days and the colder stuff doesn't actually seem to be moving much further forward? It always seems to be at the very end

Yep, if they were showing well above average SS it would be nailed on. Just like the models always deep in fi

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Ecm 0z and then 12z at same time frames, more of a W/NWly eliment to the latter stages of the 12s, hence cooler/colder temps 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

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Are some changes afoot? At t144 the ecm has another trough ejected from the Canadian vortex into the Atlantic south of Newfoundland putting pressure on the mid Atlantic trough, and as a knock on, the ridge. Within 30 hours the latter trough has deconstructed over the UK as the ridge is split,

t144.thumb.png.d331a72d5f370ce9c3eb34a9d71aba53.pngindex.thumb.png.432725783199d5aeb618c54275a469b5.png

This opens the door for the new trough to sweep through resulting in wet and windy weather, with gales, for the end of the run.

t204.thumb.png.0c0cb6d0daf39c18cca96ac5406ac244.pngt234.thumb.png.171dcca3dbea42bce4e06bd94881a3ea.png

And at the end some very cold air plunging down through Turkey into Egypt

 

Edited by knocker

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And the GEFs anomaly is not adverse to this. Await the EPS

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.2a42f6252d79595b69c782e82eba041a.png

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40 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ecm 0z and then 12z at same time frames, more of a W/NWly eliment to the latter stages of the 12s, hence cooler/colder temps 

 

ECM0-240 (1).gif

I guess a return to average 850 temp for beginning of March is a start , but nothing to worry the spring bunnies just yet ..? 

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10 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

I guess a return to average 850 temp for beginning of March is a start , but nothing to worry the spring bunnies just yet ..? 

Not unless we have a stonking set of ensembles 😂

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Just been looking through the GEFS 12z and to me it indicates at least some cold zonal polar type incursions longer term and perhaps even some arctic influence too!!..there could be some wintry weather at times next month.👍

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The ext EPS indicating unsettled as well with temps around average or a tad above

index.thumb.png.fbdd5698bc5da8baf6b14081145a45a4.png

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Nice to finally see the high pressure retreating somewhat towards the end of the ECM. It's incredibly boring weather, I'm looking forward to a bit of wind and rain hopefully.

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North east England could be the warm spot tomorrow with an isolated 17c possible

12_27_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.f9050e913982c9373705aa67fb82fb18.png

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17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

A dip but nothing to get excited about 👍

london_ecmsd850.png

newcastle_ecmsd850.png

The Scottish skiing industry will happily take that following a diabolical winter season!..I'm quite positive that we will see some cold incursions next month, looking at the extended mean..both Gefs / Ecm!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Yes signs that mild spell will be nothing special with a quick return to normal or cool

Eh? What exactly constitutes a 'special' mild spell for you in February? For a start, it's looking like the best spell of mild February weather since at least 2008. And tomorrow until at least next Wednesday would certainly be classed as prolonged and by no means 'quick'.

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3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Eh? What exactly constitutes a 'special' mild spell for you in February? For a start, it's looking like the best spell of mild February weather since at least 2008. And tomorrow until at least next Wednesday would certainly be classed as prolonged and by no means 'quick'.

Aye agree, certainly prefer this coming weather to the vile 240 charts on EC and GFS

ECM1-240.GIF?20-0gfs-0-252.png?12

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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Eh? What exactly constitutes a 'special' mild spell for you in February? For a start, it's looking like the best spell of mild February weather since at least 2008. And tomorrow until at least next Wednesday would certainly be classed as prolonged and by no means 'quick'.

Looking at max/min values the means for the next week are coming in around 10c which is normal for late April. It doesn’t really come much milder historically for the time of year. 

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