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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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6 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

After this warm weather, there is blossom buds on the trees in my garden ready to come out and leaves growing on some of the bushes. If there is a cold spell in March, would this be damaging to the early leaf growth?

Dunno which model would explain that chief.

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2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

After this warm weather, there is blossom buds on the trees in my garden ready to come out and leaves growing on some of the bushesJIf there is a cold spell in March, would this be damaging to the early leaf growth?

Possibly, this obviously has been exceptionally warm.   But we often have mild weather followed by some really cold nights, most things cope.  Its often the non native garden plants that dont do so well.  Japanese Acers leaves dont like the warm then cool combo and I had some ferns damaged by the beast from  the east last year. Of course if these unusual spells of weather get more common and 'severe' nature will suffer.

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And here comes the change courtesy of ecm

 

 

144_mslp850uk.png

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Charts to make a coldie swoon..well not quite but trending in the right direction!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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10 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

After this warm weather, there is blossom buds on the trees in my garden ready to come out and leaves growing on some of the bushes. If there is a cold spell in March, would this be damaging to the early leaf growth?

I'm not sure we have an Alan titmarsh on here, perhaps gardeners world would be better suited to offer advice! 👍

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8 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Dunno which model would explain that chief.

Who knows what March will bring? Models are showing something small, it could easily turn into something big, but it could just as easily turn to nothing. We'll just to wait and see I guess.

Edited by Leon1

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From this

4DAF8E73-EA89-43F3-BC62-F0E94C1360A8.thumb.png.8d2f4e45d1b30c90c18a372460687ed8.png

to this ...

0B416D6D-B390-48ED-AF7B-40DDC180B3E1.thumb.png.0fddd48cb72ce14643cf1c1d070888f4.png

Regardless of how the colder (more average) pattern develops it’ll certainly feel bloody freezing in comparison to what we have been enjoying.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM looks wintry at day 9-10 with a slightly undercutty scenario- also a dusting over the uk @day 6

 

Indeed, you don't necessarily need sub -10 850's for it to be wintry..👍

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

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From exceptional February warmth to bog-standard March cold...a drop of around 17C - yikes!:cold::shok:

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Interesting to note towards the end of the ecm the very cold air emanating from NA which, combined with the subtropical high pushing north in mid Atlantic results in a very strong jet across same. The environment here rhapsody for some rapid cyclogenesis?

cold.thumb.png.9215c1021c3fd88e7ac10d734c0a5ffe.pngjet.thumb.png.0a9f835bef63c93de9d1af3bbfba6d6e.png

Edited by knocker

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Strongest pressure gradient ever seen on the EPS mean - 980mb to 1mb right in the centre, some strong winds from that i would have thought!

image.thumb.png.75c0349a3fc9534159ff9598072dba8e.png

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Can I just say E17 you must be the most humble, polite and sincere poster I've ever come across on any forum, keep up the good work. 👍

Aye, he may stay another day

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, he may stay another day

Lol, sorry for being of topic, but I have been wondering why that stay now tune as been going through my head lately, been humming it as well! 😜

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Better news for coldies..no I'm being serious..tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean longer term looks colder with a darker shade of blue!:shok:👍

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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41 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Can I just say E17 you must be the most humble, polite and sincere poster I've ever come across on any forum, keep up the good work. 👍

Thanks  Mattwolves 😊 I love this forum when there is great people on here and great posts. It's not only me there are many more like yourself as well who make this forum worthwhile. Especially seeing the same names every season makes it feel good that the have travelled on the same train heading for the same destination. 

Kind regards 😊😊

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Fantastic Forum , iv said this many a time ,the Best weather Forum in the northern hemisphere .I am not posting much lately but do read the posts so i am a bit of a LURKER  .Some interesting charts tonight   ,good bye high pressure  a d welcome ,wind  rain ,sleet ,Even Snow , take care all , ps ,slight frost at first light today ,then 19c at 4.39 pm , cheers gang .

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

A lot of cold uppers dropping into the NW Atlantic, could definitely be a surprise or two in the next couple of weeks! 

ECH1-240.gif

I mentioned how the strong PV has allowed some very cold uppers and pool of air to lock in over N Canadian arctic, any polar maritime air through March will pack a cold punch. Bottled up cold air over arctic regions has a habit over time through early Spring of dispersing into mid lattitudes, it then depends on which side of the polar front jet you sit, whether it brings cold or not. 

From Thursday onwards the models are all in full agreement of a resurgent atlantic, temps back to the season average, snow for northern high ground and possibly lower ground at times, frost for some, rain / showers, strong winds - normal service resumed.

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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I mentioned how the strong PV has allowed some very cold uppers and pool of air to lock in over N Canadian arctic, any polar maritime air through March will pack a cold punch. Bottled up cold air over arctic regions has a habit over time through early Spring of dispersing into mid lattitudes, it then depends on which side of the polar front jet you sit, whether it brings cold or not. 

From Thursday onwards the models are all in full agreement of a resurgent atlantic, temps back to the season average, snow for northern high ground and possibly lower ground at times, frost for some, rain / showers, strong winds - normal service resumed.

Indeed , yes , Agree with you , fun and games , but the strong PV is slowly going to sleep , Alas a strong , jet stream across the nation March stormy and cold, perhaps the coldest April on record coming up..}:gathering::cold::cold::cold:

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On ‎25‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 21:33, Frosty. said:

It's sad when we call 7c cold..there really is no hope if that's the case!...anyway, turning cooler and increasingly unsettled sums up the outlook beyond the next few days with temperatures returning closer to average but probably still slightly above average for most..interestingly / ironically the nights will then be milder with more cloud, breeze and a risk of rain..😁

Could only find one with a HP in a short space of time now but there was snowcover from February 25th until march 3rd here,looks like we have a 7c max early march.

Not here 3c  and -5c at night.

 

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Evening 

Nice latter stages on the GFS P 18z . The output definitely looking better for a more wintry flavour in the next few weeks . It’s not deep winter by any means but will be better than what we have now . Can we upgrade and see one potent cold blast or spell to turn the country white for a few days ? 🤞🏻

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731B0621-DA97-49DE-BF96-C4C8EFC20CC8.png

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