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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


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I still think the signal is to strong for the 850 mb airs off Greenland to reach here with an potency?

I think we'll tend to see the 'stronger flushes' of sub minus 5 850mbs to be downgraded to low minus's or just the freezing 850 mbs?

If there's precip associated with it then you'll see sleety rain over the higher ground but just cold rain for lower elevations with the odd bit of graupel in the heavier bursts of rain?

I would not even put it past the models to see H.P. begin to throw its weight around before the current set of synoptics reaches 5 days out?

 

I think the cold dropping off the U.S. will fire up storms in the eastern/central  Atlantic but will they plough straight through us or will our H.P. shield step up to deflect them ( north and south).

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Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time ! 

Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise t

Highly unlikely. Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)? Many on here need to grasp some

Posted Images

ECM weeklies showing above average temps over the next 4-weeks continuing for most parts maybe closer to or a bit below average in NI & ROI around weeks 2, 3 & 4

Monthly-Anomalies-T2m-20190225-w1.pngMonthly-Anomalies-T2m-20190225-w2.pngMonthly-Anomalies-T2m-20190225-w3.pngMonthly-Anomalies-T2m-20190225-w4.png

Rainfall amounts increasing in the coming weeks

Monthly-Anomalies-Rain-20190225-w1.pngMonthly-Anomalies-Rain-20190225-w2.pngMonthly-Anomalies-Rain-20190225-w3.pngMonthly-Anomalies-Rain-20190225-w4.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Just for fun but got to laugh, isn't this type of weather pattern we have been looking for throughout the winter! Now it gets thrown up in nearly April!! A continental feed and heights building over scandy! Would be bloody typical though ?

cfs-0-666.png

cfs-2-666.png

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, on balance there certainly seems to be more support for polar maritime than tropical maritime influence during the upcoming unsettled spell..looking at the postage stamps, there's some snow at times further ahead, and not exclusively further north and high ground!!?

snow_246_ps_slp.png

snow_270_ps_slp.png

snow_294_ps_slp.png

snow_366_ps_slp.png

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, on balance there certainly seems to be more support for polar maritime than tropical maritime influence during the upcoming unsettled spell..looking at the postage stamps, there's some snow at times further ahead, and not exclusively further north and high ground!!?

snow_246_ps_slp.png

snow_270_ps_slp.png

snow_294_ps_slp.png

snow_366_ps_slp.png

I'll take that followed by a watered down beast at end of march frosty! 

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Sat in the garden  in my t-shirt, it’s very warm and not a cloud in sight, kinda weather you might expect towards the end of April. Lovely. 

Edited by Bazray
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A chance to get close to records again tomorrow, 20c easily expected in favoured spots, picnic or day by the river if you can, because just 6 days on we have possibly - 8c uppers in the north of the country, bound to come as a big shock after our recent heroics! ??

gfs-1-24.png

gfs-1-174.png

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19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

A chance to get close to records again tomorrow, 20c easily expected in favoured spots, picnic or day by the river if you can, because just 6 days on we have possibly - 8c uppers in the north of the country, bound to come as a big shock after our recent heroics! ??

gfs-1-24.png

gfs-1-174.png

Temps struggling to get above much above zero in the north 
168-582UK.GIF?26-12

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5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

One thing i will say about the last few years, polar NW flows have tended to upgrade nearer the time, and there are tentative signals for this right now, Iapennel mentioned this in the thread he started saying that that is the one aspect that could deliver more in an otherwise bleak outlook for future British winters, because of the -ve SST anomalies in the Atlantic, before now the NW flow has tended to downgrade nearer the time, i don't think it will come to anything this time other than 1000ft+ altitude, but its not out of the question.

 

Right on cue!!

image.thumb.png.d45965edda2b163fd5939a31c0cefd2e.png

Not just for high ground in the North either although that certainly would be an advantage.

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70 f breached in  February, amazing now expect some record cold temps in march to equal things out although don't expect gfs of all the models to have a clue  its always a complete mess and garbage output in fl

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8 hours ago, frosty ground said:

Are you mistaking anomalies with actual temperature? It's still cold up there

Even thou it's still cold up there you can see most of below average temps have been shifted into Mid lat regions. 

I was pointing out that it's also exceptionally warm there too relative to average.

Just thought it was weird pointing out its cold, relative to pur shores in the arctic, in february.

Dont really understand what might be expected otherwise? 

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33 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I was pointing out that it's also exceptionally warm there too relative to average.

Just thought it was weird pointing out its cold, relative to pur shores in the arctic, in february.

Dont really understand what might be expected otherwise? 

Not sure that was the point I think the point was that there is still a lot of cold air up there that could impact the UK under the right conditions.

the fact that temps are higher than average doesn’t change that fact does it?

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1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

I was pointing out that it's also exceptionally warm there too relative to average.

Just thought it was weird pointing out its cold, relative to pur shores in the arctic, in february.

Dont really understand what might be expected otherwise? 

So is it cold or not cold? Make ya mind up ;)

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Here is what i was talking about earlier - last few days runs.

 

image.thumb.png.a59a776f385f3deb52d882ce2460ab80.pngimage.thumb.png.0825256c175c162d70b00b4c31868192.pngimage.thumb.png.0debb70ee7dc696848929f0c0b07f8cd.pngimage.thumb.png.ca7a1fe392d4cc405b896cfcb2150061.png

 

Look at the upgrade to this, yes it won't deliver snow but look how more favourable with a better digging, would only take a slight alteration to the 850mb temps to deliver a right dumping, Ok it won't happen but in 2 weeks time another chance might.

image.thumb.png.0ec82dbb469493c76e0e5f489a682958.png

 

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Gfs and the Euros handling the low out west quite differently! 

Gfs has it north phasing with the main trough while EC takes it well south as a closed system..... (as does UKMO at 144)

the euro solution could open the door to a very cold synoptic pattern to establish into march.

could we go from +21 to -21 in as many days. 

BEC69D30-5172-4791-A880-0F359D204764.thumb.png.f3196c9f949483430fb68375739cce4d.png36ABE8F2-36A0-4E1F-A246-CCB8BE8A6FC3.thumb.png.9bb889c34613a191a1ce6581b5a02846.png

 

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After this warm weather, there is blossom buds on the trees in my garden ready to come out and leaves growing on some of the bushes. If there is a cold spell in March, would this be damaging to the early leaf growth?

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