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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And yet the nearest observation site to London according to the Met Office site got down to 1 at midnight then lower
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcpvj0v07

Looks like it is location specific: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcpu5w5gx

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, shaky said:

BREAKING NEWS!!!20.3C REACHED IN WALES FEW MINUTES AGO!!!UNBELIEVABLE!!FIRST TIME EVER!!

They've never had over 20 degrees in Wales? Ever?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

They've never had over 20 degrees in Wales? Ever?

Sorry what i meant to say is first time ever 20 degrees has been reached in winter in the uk!!

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Posted
  • Location: Northumberland Pennines
  • Location: Northumberland Pennines
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Sorry what i meant to say is first time ever 20 degrees has been reached in winter in the uk!!

Well, since records have been kept. 20.3C has probably been smashed dozens or even hundreds of times  over the millennia.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Just now, Lunar Tick said:

Well, since records have been kept. 20.3C has probably been smashed dozens or even hundreds of times  over the millennia.

I doubt that. It’s impressive none the less though.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Back to Model output discussion please in here, There are other threads open for discussing todays high temp values as interesting as it is.. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

The current spell of weather is remarkable, albeit for reasons the opposite of which many of us on here were hoping for!

Looking back over 15-20 days, how many of the model runs were nailing this back then? And why did they come to fruition but not the Narnia inspired ones!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Folks there is know point in even going down this whole planet is warming scenario again, let's just leave it at.... Let's agree to disagree!! Nuff said, I'm really struggling to find any real cold output today, occasionally colder shots from the NW, higher parts of the North doing OK. Further south and east, more of a case of roll on summer! 

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-1-300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few more posts have had to go, Please keep to topic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Folks there is know point in even going down this whole planet is warming scenario again, let's just leave it at.... Let's agree to disagree!! Nuff said, I'm really struggling to find any real cold output today, occasionally colder shots from the NW, higher parts of the North doing OK. Further south and east, more of a case of roll on summer! 

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-1-300.png

I would agree to disagree, if I could, Matt...but the evidence is quite unequivocal. And anyway, a Spring which has sprung is about to unspring! Assuming the model-runs are correct, of course?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I would agree to disagree, if I could, Matt...but the evidence is quite unequivocal. And anyway, a Spring which has sprung is about to unspring! Assuming the model-runs are correct, of course?

Yes Edd, it's very much a case of beating ya head against a brick wall with that topic, yes it seems spring as indeed sprung. There is obviously a change to a much more mobile and cooler set up later in the week, whether we  can get any kind of block to devolop mid month is very sketchy to say the least, I was hoping for a few more Nthly topplers in this upcoming spell,  but tbh I'm failing to see it currently Ed!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Frosty. said:

Well..hello winter.. where have you been hiding???..sod the timeframe..it's wintry!!❄❄❄

12_360_preciptype.png

12_372_preciptype.png

12_384_preciptype.png

12_384_ukthickness850.png

Yet again you pull a rabbit out of the hat! I think them perception graphics could be a little OTT frosty, nice to see though either way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I tell you peeps, these ensembles are slowly but surely dipping! The mean slightly further under 0c, and a fair few pushing the - 5c, give it a few days and we could be in boooooommmmm territory

graphe3_1000_246_92___.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I tell you peeps, these ensembles are slowly but surely dipping! The mean slightly further under 0c, and a fair few pushing the - 5c, give it a few days and we could be in boooooommmmm territory

graphe3_1000_246_92___.gif

There's certainly a fair sprinkling of snow on the extended GEFS 12z postage stamps..one to watch!!:shok::cold:..edit, that was the 6z I was looking at but hopefully the 12z will be similar!!..apologies guys..hunting for cold model fatigue:whistling:

Just seen the updated GEFS 12z postage stamps and there's plenty of wintry ppppotential longer term..even a little in the not so longer term!

 

 

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I tell you peeps, these ensembles are slowly but surely dipping! The mean slightly further under 0c, and a fair few pushing the - 5c, give it a few days and we could be in boooooommmmm territory

graphe3_1000_246_92___.gif

-5C uppers in March..... boom territory?

More like fart territory. Little northern blocking so on and off cold in a pretty zonal pattern sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

-5C uppers in March..... boom territory?

More like fart territory. Little northern blocking so on and off cold in a pretty zonal pattern sadly.

Its a boom going on the last 3 months of total dross, also a bit of a rally call for the cold hunt troops, or distinct lack of them! As long as your standing on a mountain your gonna be guaranteed some of the white stuff...

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

-5C uppers in March..... boom territory?

More like fart territory. Little northern blocking so on and off cold in a pretty zonal pattern sadly.

Absolutely. It’s just a few runs temporarily bringing in cold PM air, no blocking, nothing continental....so just cold rain for 90%, with a bit of snow over the hilltops etc. Those uppers in March aren’t going to do much sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

-5C uppers in March..... boom territory?L

 

There's potential for arctic incursions with much colder uppers..looking at the extended GEFS 12z postage stamps..and polar maritime can also pack a punch in march..I don't think we are finished with the snow word just yet although it currently feels like that for sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

LOL met office spring starts and GFS shows charts more suitable for Dec and January, At least some interesting weather to look forward too.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Absolutely. It’s just a few runs temporarily bringing in cold PM air, no blocking, nothing continental....so just cold rain for 90%, with a bit of snow over the hilltops etc. Those uppers in March aren’t going to do much sadly.

Yes and that sadly sums up this winter season! Even looking at the continent the uppers are disappointing. Some cold uppers from the north are realistically our best hope right now of anything remotely wintry, even if it is only a glancing blow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

LOL met office spring starts and GFS shows charts more suitable for Dec and January, At least some interesting weather to look forward too.

Well it's interesting for some pit, but others it's just a waste of time and a nuisance! I for one remain in the happy and optimistic camp

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

one big northerly is going happen in March I suspect,their certainly plenty of extremely cold air up in the Artic,looking at the gfs run,just need the high pressure  belts to the S to push off,their already outstayed their welcome

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