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Paul

Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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Modis image at 1115.Almost total Ci cover here with some high Ac

modis.thumb.JPG.14ad373e9b722e59e7e8e3d2466070a4.JPG

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My final long term forecast for the season for Europe, and my seasonal forecast verification: 

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/02/europe-on-long-term-23rd-feb.html

Looking like a +NAO zonal setup is likely into the month of March. This means the U.K. might start to see quite a lot of precipitation in the first half of March, and potentially beyond. 

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32 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Looking like a +NAO zonal setup is likely into the month of March. This means the U.K. might start to see quite a lot of precipitation in the first half of March, and potentially beyond. 

You don't say🤣...yes it looks like the uk will see a change to atlantic domination with alternating Tm / Pm / rPm airmasses and this is probably wishful thinking but hopefully something from the arctic at some point in march!

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16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You don't say🤣...yes it looks like the uk will see a change to atlantic domination with alternating Tm / Pm / rPm airmasses and this is probably wishful thinking but hopefully something from the arctic at some point in march!

Frosty dear sir, I will just know in my heart of hearts the chase will be well and truly over when you stop posting on this ridiculously long cold chase! You even more stubborn than me and that's saying something, keep up the eventful and exciting posts! 👍👌

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I'm not giving up the chase till at least mid April🤣I know from the archives that a mild winter often leads to snow in spring time expect a much colder set of runs appearing in the next few days,

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The high to our east is modelled to remain over Europe for the next few days with attendant warm days and some foggy nights. Dewpoints further to our east and southeast are impressively low and some of this very dry cold air must inevitably filter into the southeast of the UK. Fog may become less extensive but nights could turn very cold with some hard frosts where skies remain clear.

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There is a fair amount going on at the end of the week with the gfs. Trough disruption just to the west of the UK as the blocking high comes under pressure and at the same time there is a lot of cold air advecting around the high into the eatern Mediterranean and north Africa which intensifies the subtropical jet

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.43ad28453240ccafb7ca96bdd29025e1.pnggfs_uv250_natl_27.thumb.png.63d014d2c70d0ece0599b92237d43247.png

Over the weekend the energy and the next upper trough finally shifts the block and under the auspices of this a surface low undergoes explosive cyclogenesis which brings heavy rain and gales to the UK

gfs_z500_vort_natl_31.thumb.png.cd4f5c587b728fcb1b09853af98713b3.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_37.thumb.png.44cb456635ba1800c2277b80efc38d8b.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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Are we getting a new slug of high pressure forming ?? Any the warm weather looks to be extended a few extra days and wouldn't be surprised if the high held on much longer than shown.

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4 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

My final long term forecast for the season for Europe, and my seasonal forecast verification: 

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/02/europe-on-long-term-23rd-feb.html

Looking like a +NAO zonal setup is likely into the month of March. This means the U.K. might start to see quite a lot of precipitation in the first half of March, and potentially beyond. 

Thanks for sharing this.

I'm not so sure it will be that wet in the UK though; I'm not seeing the +NAO correlation to MJO phase 3 under a weak ENSO base state:

nada_3_mar_ok.png

It could become much wetter if the Nino base state establishes more firmly, but there's few historical cases of this happening while the MJO's in phase 3 in March so it's hard to be sure;

nino_3_mar_low.png

The red outline denotes poor reliability. Still not a +NAO though - where did that link come from, may I ask?

Incidentally, it's a similar story for MJO phase 2, except that the Nino pattern is a mystery as there are too few historical cases to form a meaningful composite. Notable what that indicates with respect to Indian Ocean MJO activity an an El Nino base state; they just don't jive with one another!

 

With the question of how much wetter or not it turns in March to mind, it's caught my eye that GFS is keeping more and more of a split jet formation in place as the new month gets away. Such configurations are often broken down too readily, so the ridging across the UK might well prove more stubborn than recent modelling has suggested.

On the other hand, UKMO's a lot less interested, and ECM was even less so last night so who knows, it might be a garden path situation from GFS.

Aside from this minor curiosity, the model output and overall signals going into March could hardly be less interesting. Maybe something warm or cool could turn up from the east or southeast if the MJO phase 2-3 response takes on a neutral ENSO shape, or it could be that it's more Nino-like and we see a windstorm or two, but otherwise... yawn!

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Not a very inspiring set of 12s it as to be said, largely Atlantic driven dross with the occasional NWtly bringing some wintryness at elevation. Alternating temps of around average to occasionally below, nothing to suggest any real cold plume from the North or East, I am starting to see why so many have threw in the towel now. Just in case some are not aware yet, the official release of the new GFS has been put back till April, possibly May, looking at the current gunge, the further back the better  👍

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-240.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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A quick look at this evening's ecm in the 5-10 period which is the area of transition,

At T120 a waving front brings some rain to the southern half of the UK before giving way to transient ridge from the south west. This quite quickly gives way as fronts, accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds, cross the country on Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough now dominates the eastern Atlantic.. Thereafter continuing unsettled with temps around average

It should be noted that this run is completely different from this morning's run as it doesn't develop the low in the baroclinic zone off the eastern seaboard  and run it north east as a rapidly deepening cyclone west of Ireland

t120.pngt168.thumb.png.9fce0150837aba34b8e046300049d593.pngt204.thumb.png.51a12d09f16860237b01cb140dc882bf.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is for any coldies who are left on here..very FI but who cares!..something from the GFS 12z & GEFS 12z!!👍

12_372_preciptype.png

12_372_ukthickness850.png

12_384_ukthickness850.png

14_360_850tmp.png

14_360_2mtmpmax.png

Looks like its just you and me frosty!! 😱

Edit, And sleety! 

Edited by Mattwolves

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15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looks like its just you and me frosty!! 😱

Indeed, what a shame it's come to this!..anyway, looking at the GEFS 12z postage stamps there's at least a chance of snow occasionally through FI (low res)..especially further north and higher ground..very zonal unsettled pattern according to the mean from around next weekend onwards, a mix of milder and colder with almost daily fluctuations in  temperatures.

Edited by Frosty.

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, what a shame it's come to this!..anyway, looking at the GEFS 12z there's at least a chance of snow occasionally through FI (low res)..especially further north and higher ground..very zonal pattern, a mix of mild and cold with almost daily fluctuations in  temperatures.

Yes, I would imagine the highest parts of the North could do quite well in that set up. Places further south and more low lying areas probably won't fair very well at all, and tbh cold zonal doesn't float to many boats at the best of times, let alone in march!! Absolutely amazing turnaround frosty, from last years beast from the east and the place in gridlock to this! Just what is it gonna take to get a freeze that devolps in December and continues till end of Feb. Even a decent freeze in January would do, oh well, onwards and upwards. 👍

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34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is for any coldies who are left on here..very FI but who cares!..something from the GFS 12z & GEFS 12z!!👍

Nope, crap south of the M4 corridor 😜

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A serious lack of sunspot activity -  like about 600 days on the bounce without a single sunspot, an E-qbo, a medoki El-nino, a -PDO, a conistantly favourable MJO throughout the whole season, the aforenmentioned Nino coupling up with the atmosphere, ie - a big - SOI resulting in huge +AAM throughout the season, off the scale +MT event resulting in a massive SSW which splits and propagates, the strat then staying favourable throughout, and even then a lot of luck on top of that.

Not to much then😉 even though it seems one hell of a long shot Feb, these things do and will happen. 47-63 to name a couple, it's been knocking on 55 years since the latter! Sun spot activity is going the right way, I think SSW events will become much more frequent due to a currently warming climate, and the resulting splits will become larger scale! The next few years certainly won't be without interest! 

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Although the vortex is still centred over northern Canada on the ext EPS it is generally quite diffuse over the Arctic and Greenland with a negatively tilted trough down through Iceland. Still some upstream amplification and a very strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic where it is no longer diverted by amplification of the subtropical high. This would portend unsettled and perhaps quite windy weather for the UK with temps varying around the average. This evenig's NOAA much in the same ball park

9-14.thumb.png.d7d632ed0f45a58794d335cface67730.png814day_03.thumb.gif.02ff85549316c54ea05d80c41b913e0e.gif

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Can we please take the discussion of 'what went wrong' and any moans to the relevant threads please. Thanks!

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Slightest dip on the 12z EPS,  carry on with that trend and I may start to get excited! 

graphe_ens3.png

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Evening peeps

i know I have just trodden on a lot of towels on the floor and a lot of coldies have probably gone into hibernation mood till the next winter season (unless like me your next chase is thunderstorms) but I though I pop in here and say hi.

There is not much left to say about this winter now I think it's all marked on the walls. I don't think March is going to deliver anything special down here in London where I am, although some people up north may still get a wintry surprise.

My next chase now is storms especially those that move up from France at night. I still remember last years June storm was very spectacular lots of non-stop continuous lightening but hardly any loud thunder. 

Anyway peeps wish you all a great evening speak soon. 

Regards 😊😊😊😊

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Slightest dip on the 12z EPS,  carry on with that trend and I may start to get excited! 

graphe_ens3.png

but what a remarkable run of 850s for the next four days. Must be one of the most significant winter warm spells in history, likely to last seven days from start to finish and I suspect a very close run on the winter temperature record on Tuesday! 

(well, better to look on the bright side than drowning in the misery of a failed winter ;)

Edited by Man With Beard

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8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

but what a remarkable run of 850s for the next four days. Must be one of the most significant winter warm spells in history, likely to last seven days from start to finish and I suspect a very close run on the winter temperature record on Tuesday! 

(well, better to look on the bright side than drowning in the misery of a failed winter ) 

For sure MWB, the complete opposite of last year when we had temps of something like 10c below average! What a truly bizarre climate we live in. 👌

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