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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The meteorological winter ends with a whimper on the Ecm 12z operational..remarkable spell of spring-like warm and for the majority, fine weather..could reach 18c 64f in places this weekend!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The meteorological winter ends with a whimper on the Ecm 12z operational..remarkable spell of spring-like warm and for the majority, fine weather..could reach 18c 64f in places this weekend!

Be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles frosty 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Spring may well be approaching but the ensembles are trending back to winter!

A403CF69-E411-4F43-90C9-DE924299C244.thumb.png.467bd0c67adef954f44767fe39e89529.png

After what could be record February warmth I wouldn’t mind a bit of March snowfall  

 

I wouldn't mind nor bet against a very cold March spell at some point. What that might do to nature after the potential 20C days this weekend is anyone's guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

ECM op yet again showing a complete lack of consistency in the 7-10 day range much like it has all winter.  Cold outlier on the 00z and most likely a warm outlier on the 12z. The op has shown this tendency to go straight from one Extreme to the other on numerous occasions this winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I suppose a 'cold bias' might explain why so many of the FI 'cold shots' ended up damp squibs?

Its only the FV3 with a cold bias, not all the models 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

ECM op yet again showing a complete lack of consistency in the 7-10 day range much like it has all winter.  Cold outlier on the 00z and most likely a warm outlier on the 12z. The op has shown this tendency to go straight from one Extreme to the other on numerous occasions this winter. 

*Every* operational run after 7 days is pure FI even on the gold standard ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's a stunning Ecm 12z ensemble mean for much of it's duration tonight..high pressure domination and with air, for a time sourced from the canaries / nw africa we will see max temps widely into the mid teens celsius range.. around 60f and even higher in places, closer to 18 / 19c..around 65f in the most favoured spots..t-shirt weather in february!!:shok:?️

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12z op is at the top end of the spread tonight from around D7. Maybe something closer to average as we head into early March.

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.1c200b85f0de2d304f61a9fa3d85dd6b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A couple of off topic posts have been removed. 

Casual chat and banter should now be posted into the general winter thread.

Model discussions only in here now please.

Thanks all. 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
44 minutes ago, mulzy said:

*Every* operational run after 7 days is pure FI even on the gold standard ECM.

Not necessarily Mulzy if it shows a consistent signal that counts down to within the 6 day period which it has done plenty of times before.  Just not with cold/snowy outlooks this  winter. Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Rambo said:

Its only the FV3 with a cold bias, not all the models 

I suspect that the issue if it exists with the FV3 is of shorter range prediction of snow, rather than the longer range predictions  that we are generally interested in.   And we all know that GFS predictions (of all model variants) of precipitation are pretty useless in the UK.  That's what the higher resolution models are for.

Good to see the return of the one thread going forward into spring and summer.  The hunt for cold thread seemed of late to me to be a mix half decent posts and half those who have offered no analysis at all through winter being wise after the event, after a disappointing season for many though not all.  

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well the +8 uppers heading to Scotland on the pub run, here T150:

image.thumb.jpg.5d11e5eb91c8649c727279ef17481276.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.2c639d53fff96cc7bae8ad5ac7ed3cca.jpg

Very mild end of Feb, but could the WAA build a suitable block for early March?  

Edit, nope, not on this run anyway.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ha ha..

A 'how warm will it be thread'...

Quickly followed by..@bk to cold hunt.

Its fantastic in here @times..

And the reverse psycology..

Is bang on the button..

Xx

@big love

My paywall..and analysis is fraught..

Enjoy your mild..false dawn..

X

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 hours ago, knocker said:

Truly warms  the cockles - as Sidney would say

index.thumb.png.e8e2f6601fb0a3fcb31af089b628aeed.png

Alreasy stale data..

And you know the reverse climitology of the maritime uk..

And data supply..

With both ana's and pre-tense!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

12z op is at the top end of the spread tonight from around D7. Maybe something closer to average as we head into early March.

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.1c200b85f0de2d304f61a9fa3d85dd6b.png

This thread is open/and designed for both you and your seek out..followers.

I fear for yourself-and the false dawn spring seekers here.

@outliers..

You know yourself-its a climbing dynamic..when either..or ither..are folding on out rite miss dynamic...is the breach of change in the model dyanamical synoptics.

The out-guided format..is closer to HIT...THAN MISS...

When in a repeat sequence...

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

We'll now refer to spaghetti plots..

Of mass mix of major coupling/quading of outs..

I say sorry now-to some whom will be of confuse..

But the design/rep...is on!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

We'll now refer to spaghetti plots..

Of mass mix of major coupling/quading of outs..

I say sorry now-to some whom will be of confuse..

But the design/rep...is on!!!

Ti, have you been reading William Shakespeare or something!! In the meantime something a tad wintry as we enter the spring season! 

gfs-1-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ti, have you been reading William Shakespeare or something!! In the meantime something a tad wintry as we enter the spring season! 

gfs-1-348.png

Its tight..(no pun intended).

But the terminal forcing-and upper shunts-are of switch and turn..the 

The tenplated are of that..'change afoot'.

In the oceanic/atmospheric feature.

Late..YES.. of value..also yes.

Most mods/notes have atm a polar maritime switch to note what has been looked 4..but there..THE CATCH IS..as in the 2m temp conts which fail/and have failed via data stackes for months.

The pac ridge/annom has designed the nor hem weather/climate and governed..for 10/12 weeks..

But now relaxes the overall format..and folds into a polar hole/annom..of massive feature.as a present presented via models..

The missed notion of many/-including model conscience-is thats is that..the miss dynamic of both coupling and strat/trop bigger..and better..ie 1 cant couple..without the other giving way!..

Sadly for spring weather fans they have both now missed eachother..and left upper dynamics in a soggy mess

And like a chlid painting a picture with toffee in 100c heat..its ending up an unpredict..mess..

But that mess has 2 be cleaned up..and b4 it is has 2 work out the best evaluation of such...and some1 has too suffer...

So if you like a cold..very late WINTER..early spring shock...then you are the picked janitor..

The polar V will split and down on the already un-effect latts..

'Lets say the UK'..

HMM undoubtadly.

Its the most lagged..yet already gone RESPONCE in likely history...

But the worst of winter for our shores..will come off- the back of some notable late winter warmth..

Dont ya just love it!!??

 

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gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_60.png

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_38.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

You might have heard that the FV3 overblows snow in the US,   18z run ends on epic March snow in another day or two,  after the end of the run!

image.thumb.jpg.6ec3605e5296af8001676a5668e7a1ce.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d90a95141030c802207e85687477ca02.jpg

One of many options on the table for March at this point!  

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Latest ensembles courtesy of GEFS, still a downward trend as we head into March. Fair few scraping the - 5 mark. 

graphe3_1000_254_109___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

Seems as though the hunt for cold is being pushed out by the early spring! Sticking with the late winter cold as nothing better than snow. l think it is just about to show on the models. Recently been hinting at it just needs some disruption in the right place, giving the chance for heights to rise to our North. First chance IMO is if this develops into something I would call a trough? With the high pushing North giving hope EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192.thumb.jpg.d93caedfd329c1f1a5ad33b69ec7ade8.jpg 

EUROPE_PRMSL_204.thumb.jpg.360c7d7c32636263f38a45442e897c4a.jpg

Hopefully going to see change on the models by early !

If this one doesn't produce the next one may do . Ever the optimist. Still being patient. Always worth it though !

Tight to be right @spaghettiMarch back loaded with snowballs 

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