Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just goes to show what you can achieve with a NWtly when theres plenty of cold pooling in the north Atlantic, also a few assorted precipitation charts showing the various potential for something wintry. 

edit, worth noting the ever so slightly decreasing values from the GEFS ensembles! 

Edited February 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[SLEETY]

Yep trending colder as spring arrives, think snow will be back in the forecasts before too long 

Extremely cold air upon the Arctic, if that can head South then we could see the complete reverse of the weather over the past few days. Gfs parallel was heading towards that direction. 

Interesting model watching again

[KTtom]

It'll be interesting to see how this develops, gfs last couple of runs develops a ridge over southern Scandinavia after a brief northerly just as the next Atlantic trough arrives, keeping the cold uppers in place and slowing the Atlantic progression...

 

Final humiliation for the Met as we get a cold spell just as they finally flip to a mild forecast??

Edited February 27, 2019 by KTtom

[mb018538]

Looks like batten down the hatches is order of the day for the first half of March.

Potential for a strong storm Sunday into Monday next week - models all vary on this at the moment so one to keep an eye on.

 



AO highly positive, and a N Hem profile you might expect in November or December! PV is like the terminator this year.....i'll be back!

Edited February 27, 2019 by mb018538

[knocker]

deleted

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by knocker

[IDO]

5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Yep trending colder as spring arrives, think snow will be back in the forecasts before too long 

Extremely cold air upon the Arctic, if that can head South then we could see the complete reverse of the weather over the past few days. Gfs parallel was heading towards that direction. 

Interesting model watching again

 

Here is the latest on the GFS FV3: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

They have put any roll out on hold with no date set for release. That is no surprise as it was clear to see that the FV3 was hopeless in (potential) cold scenarios from late last year. It clearly is unfit for purpose and any cold pattern forecast should be treated with caution.

Still no change in the medium term from the models. We announce the arrival of the Atlantic by the end of the week and expect at least ten days of zonal PM air. Temps just below average but feeling cooler if those cyclones are as brisk as modelled. 

Still losing the Pac Wedge around D8-10, opening the PV to that region. That should, in theory, allow better wave breaking for mini-ridges and maybe further wedges injected into higher latitudes. That would put the easterly and northerly options in the mix. But that is way out in FI at the moment, but one to watch.

A cool March looks odds on, maybe cold at times, changeable from week 2 after a wet and windy week 1.

[Singularity]

Increased wintry risk for sure as the polar vortex coalesces N rather than NW of the UK and then, by mid-month from the looks of things, starts to wind down and fall apart for the spring.

Should be too mobile for anything sustained in the next fortnight - back-edge wintriness and overnight surprises the most likely source of any snow to low levels.

A more settled and milder trend from the south is possible mid-month depending on whether the tropical forcing drives enough poleward momentum transport or not. Still investigating to what extent this can be anticipated in advance.

[SLEETY]

29 minutes ago, IDO said:

Here is the latest on the GFS FV3: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

They have put any roll out on hold with no date set for release. That is no surprise as it was clear to see that the FV3 was hopeless in (potential) cold scenarios from late last year. It clearly is unfit for purpose and any cold pattern forecast should be treated with caution.

Still no change in the medium term from the models. We announce the arrival of the Atlantic by the end of the week and expect at least ten days of zonal PM air. Temps just below average but feeling cooler if those cyclones are as brisk as modelled. 

Still losing the Pac Wedge around D8-10, opening the PV to that region. That should, in theory, allow better wave breaking for mini-ridges and maybe further wedges injected into higher latitudes. That would put the easterly and northerly options in the mix. But that is way out in FI at the moment, but one to watch.

A cool March looks odds on, maybe cold at times, changeable from week 2 after a wet and windy week 1.

It was showing an Arctic outbreak earlier in the winter,can’t remember when. It wanted to extend the Greenland high further South with cold North East winds moving into Scotland,but that never came off and has shown very cold weather out in fl several times this winter season ,and once again it never happened.

 

We still have 8 weeks where snow can fall and settle even in the far South,so plenty of time yet for one proper prolonged spell of cold weather  

So maybe the gfs parallel will pick up on a cold spell that will actually come off but knowing our luck it will  be too late in the season.

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by SLEETY

[E17boy]

Morning peeps

Hope everyone is good on this sunny Wednesday morning. I am just on my commute from Nirtheast London to Milton Keynes, there was a frost overnight but it is disappearing fast. It's going to be one more final warm day, temperatures may not reach as high as yesterday but no doubt a few spots may hit the 18 or 19 deg mark. From tomorrow we will probably see the temperatures slowly begin to subside and by Friday probably max will be 12 or 13 deg. 

Then next week we could be reminded that winter is not too far, will be feeling distinctly cooler if not cold and with that some rain sleet or even the snow word coming back. Could winter be holding the best till last wouldn't one more snow event really make up all this recent warmth. It's still to be seen I think it's just a matter of watching and seeing how things pan out after the weekend.

looks like at least if winter does have a final sting there will. Be a job vacancy ---- anyone one interested in picking up all the towels and handing them back to their owners.

hope you all have a great day and if you are lucky enough to have the  day off enjoy the warmth while it is still here. 

Stay safe all 

regards

[Paul]

Locking this one now, new thread now open: