Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

This would be interesting deep in fi, as low pressure clears E/SE, pulling in some cold uppers from the NE, big longshot obviously but you've gotter have something to cling on to! Clutching at straws I know and tbh I haven't got many left! 

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-1-348.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Incredible charts for late February from the Ecm 12z..I have a feeling this will verify!!

24_mslp850.png

24_thickuk.png

48_mslp850.png

48_thickuk.png

48_thick.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Incredible charts for late February from the Ecm 12z..I have a feeling this will verify!!

24_mslp850.png

24_thickuk.png

48_mslp850.png

48_thickuk.png

48_thick.png

I love Cold and Snow , but to be honest it's been lovely , sitting in pub garden with kids having a bbq yesterday. Park with kids elc. Spring is a lovely time of year . Mind you it's Freezing now it's after dark

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Colder atlantic coming in all is forgiven.

Rtavn1442.gif

I would call it cooler rather than colder..there's nothing cold about that chart really...but then, it got to a record smashing 20 almost 21c today and tomorrow looks like a repeat performance..wow!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would call it cooler rather than colder..there's nothing cold about that chart really...but then, it got to a record smashing 20 almost 21c today and tomorrow looks like a repeat performance..wow!

7c in strong winds will certainly feel cold after this week.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Can someone advise when a chart in D10 - D15 ever verified?  The outlook looks cooler, but hardly winter cold.

Well basically when it's mild/zonal gunk they verify at 10-14 days Consistently, if it's cold your after they sometimes verify when you get down to the 24hr range.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
28 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

7c in strong winds will certainly feel cold after this week.

It's sad when we call 7c cold..there really is no hope if that's the case!...anyway, turning cooler and increasingly unsettled sums up the outlook beyond the next few days with temperatures returning closer to average but probably still slightly above average for most..interestingly / ironically the nights will then be milder with more cloud, breeze and a risk of rain..

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

7*C would be cold in comparison to the widespread 15*C+ that many areas of the country are seeing at the moment, but 7*C would certainly not be what you would call cold in comparison to the overall average for early March.  2 to 3*C in the day is more like what you could call cold in early March.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's sad when we call 7c cold..there really is no hope if that's the case!...anyway, turning cooler and increasingly unsettled sums up the outlook beyond the next few days with temperatures returning closer to average but probably still slightly above average for most..interestingly / ironically the nights will then be milder with more cloud, breeze and a risk of rain..

In the north conditions will be preety chilly if the synoptics suggested come off, sub 528 dam air and a strong wind will make it feel preety cold, snow again for higher ground, yes not bone freezing, but a little below average at times for early March, and after the past 10 days it will feel much much cooler for all. Further south and east - temps back closer to average with some milder nights.

There is significant cold pooling over the Pole at the moment - prime territory for secondary low development, with a more southerly tracking jet, could become quite cyclonic with deep lows - which won't be forecasted very well.

In the short-term - tomorrow could see another 20 degrees somewhere, the persistance of this exceptional warmth is noteworthy. I wonder what temps we would be seeing if this was July or August!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I will take this all day long, looks like a northerly with some pretty  cold uppers!! Not quite a boom but perhaps a............. 

 

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-1-210.png

2rr85tl_th.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Don't worry the weather gods always give payback expect one mega cold outbreak, in the weeks ahead, I've seen lying  snow here even in April. 

At least their is plenty of cold air in the Arctic, hopefully some mega cold runs showing soon. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

With 21c not out of the question today??!! On February 26th ( sorry,just had to write that for the insanity of its sake)

I have to hand it to some on here hunting  for cold still as we head for official Spring, i have had a few days off here and sunning myself in Cornwall and am proud to see some here still holding the flag for some sort of colder spell.

After the winter of so many false dawns as far as decent cold and snow  goes I am now happy to look for charts that follow something akin to the last few days now.Gorgeous conditions and a sun tan achieved yesterday!

The charts to me show unsettled and average  temperatures to start spring,GFS this morning hinting at a build of High pressure from the South at around 380hrs ( as we now know from events this week,GFS called this pattern at a simuler range,this is likely to verify!)

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS continues this morning to show a much cooler/seasonal flow from the N/W into the new week. 

1122121380_viewimage(4).thumb.png.1af23df066931efcc29491b4df06afeb.png1301384971_viewimage(5).thumb.png.507e36547fc748545d2c31798d7fe986.png

NetWx-mr.

416665953_viewimage(6).thumb.png.1235edeeeed54da6052a057388c25507.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
10 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

7*C would be cold in comparison to the widespread 15*C+ that many areas of the country are seeing at the moment, but 7*C would certainly not be what you would call cold in comparison to the overall average for early March.  2 to 3*C in the day is more like what you could call cold in early March.

2 to 3c was a very rare thing to see after mid February`s record warmth in 1998 it didn`t even make that in march only at the end of February for 1 day with a failed Greenland high,did get 1 inch of snow by the first of march.We had to wait until april for winter to arrive proper that year.

Rrea00119980228.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

 

At least their is plenty of cold air in the Arctic, hopefully some mega cold runs showing soon. 

Needs pointing out because, compared to the (warm 81-2010) average I can't see a great deal tbh.

gfs_nh-sat1_t2anom_1-day.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Needs pointing out because, compared to the (warm 81-2010) average I can't see a great deal tbh.

gfs_nh-sat1_t2anom_1-day.png

Are you mistaking anomalies with actual temperature? It's still cold up there
gfsnh-9-6.pnggfsnh-15-6.png
Even thou it's still cold up there you can see most of below average temps have been shifted into Mid lat regions. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Both models unanimous with their 3-day 500hPa mean height anomaly forecasts for 5th - 7th March. Early March shaping up to be wet and windy with with some cool PM blasts in the mix. Could be some good snowfall for the Scottish ski resorts, but it might not be pleasant up there in the strong winds.

ECM/GFS 3-day mean 2145464751_ECMGFS3day500HgtAnomend07Mar.thumb.jpg.71f69d85dc44301a079dbd66554b23cd.jpg GFS take for 8th Mar 1075973728_GFSEur50026Febfor08March.thumb.png.ed69e3ea7ff51daeee43c0d5c58264e5.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

At least there is plenty of cold air in the Arctic

That's good to know..nice for them:shok:

The current summery spell will sadly end by thursday and then it's trending significantly cooler and more unsettled.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The synoptic models seem to be following the pattern shown by the 500 mb anomaly charts with cooler air being the norm from about the weekend and also much less settled. Thereafter out to 10 days they show mainly Pm air rather than Tm air affecting the UK. So the end of our early 'summer' But it has been a wonderful break with, in spite of some fog at times, early summer type temperatures most afternoons.

The EC-GFS output this morning gives the general idea for the 6-10 day period with NOAA out to 14 days keeping a similar idea.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

One thing i will say about the last few years, polar NW flows have tended to upgrade nearer the time, and there are tentative signals for this right now, Iapennel mentioned this in the thread he started saying that that is the one aspect that could deliver more in an otherwise bleak outlook for future British winters, because of the -ve SST anomalies in the Atlantic, before now the NW flow has tended to downgrade nearer the time, i don't think it will come to anything this time other than 1000ft+ altitude, but its not out of the question.

image.thumb.png.e3faa3277bf51baee1c320d39ecb8857.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...