Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A serious lack of sunspot activity -  like about 600 days on the bounce without a single sunspot, an E-qbo, a medoki El-nino, a -PDO, a conistantly favourable MJO throughout the whole season, the aforenmentioned Nino coupling up with the atmosphere, ie - a big - SOI resulting in huge +AAM throughout the season, off the scale +MT event resulting in a massive SSW which splits and propagates, the strat then staying favourable throughout, and even then a lot of luck on top of that.

Dear oh dear,  far too much info , and this stuff you're posting is it real?  Anyway back to the Atlantic for later next week....

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 18z for the week ahead, between Mon / Fri it continues very mild and fine, pretty much bone dry across the board..this late winter weather has really stuck the knife into coldies and then twisted it for good measure! 

[Don]

33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 18z for the week ahead, between Mon / Fri it continues very mild and fine, pretty much bone dry across the board..this late winter weather has really stuck the knife into coldies and then twisted it for good measure! 

It’s the duration of this mild spell that has really struck me!  Hopefully, we will be experiencing a beast from the east this time next year!

[Tim Bland]

A chance for some marginal snow event as we head into March ...

[Bristawl Si]

21 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s the duration of this mild spell that has really struck me!  Hopefully, we will be experiencing a beast from the east this time next year!

Highly unlikely.

Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)?

Many on here need to grasp some basic UK weather realities ahead of next Winter (and future Winters), instead of being sucked in by a few internet 'heroes' saying "It's coming" or "the models are wrong".

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GAME ON!!! 

Coldies rejoice, 

Now back to reality!!!!

[IDO]

The models seem to be showing solid confidence in the upcoming pattern, so little to report viz cold.

UK HP for another 4 days then 2 days of trough disruption as the HP hands over to the Atlantic.

Zonal then up till D? though less likely the very cold variety as the Atlantic/Euro/Azores High tries to push north, ergo less cool and drier in the south possibly (the op highlights this, but tentative ATM).

Around D9-D10 a chunk of PV send PM air across the UK, so a chilly few days there.

With the trop PV showing few signs of relaxing, maybe coupling with the strat, I would suggest the MJO signal will be possibly muted as the base state reigns.

If Winter is to have a late flourish then now likely the second half of March. However, there are no signals for this and based on the rest of this Winter, my hopes are low for a final hurrah!

The CET is already at +2.7c above climate, so rare warmth in February, and with November and December each around +2c above climate, this has been an exceptionally mild winter, against all the expectations. We will probably pay for it with a cool and wet Spring, unfortunately...

[mb018538]

Is that pretty much it?? By next weekend we look locked into a zonal pattern for a while, with no real prospect of anything cold in the outlook. PV looking pretty strong for March too, with the AO highly positive - perhaps the highest of the winter!

[Blessed Weather]

Several off-topic posts have been removed. Please stick to model discussion in this thread. Thank you.

[The Northern Ramper]

Looks like I need to make this sabbatical from model viewing  21 days, see you next Sunday.

[Snowy Hibbo]

14 hours ago, Singularity said:

Thanks for sharing this.

I'm not so sure it will be that wet in the UK though; I'm not seeing the +NAO correlation to MJO phase 3 under a weak ENSO base state:

It could become much wetter if the Nino base state establishes more firmly, but there's few historical cases of this happening while the MJO's in phase 3 in March so it's hard to be sure;

The red outline denotes poor reliability. Still not a +NAO though - where did that link come from, may I ask?

Incidentally, it's a similar story for MJO phase 2, except that the Nino pattern is a mystery as there are too few historical cases to form a meaningful composite. Notable what that indicates with respect to Indian Ocean MJO activity an an El Nino base state; they just don't jive with one another!

 

With the question of how much wetter or not it turns in March to mind, it's caught my eye that GFS is keeping more and more of a split jet formation in place as the new month gets away. Such configurations are often broken down too readily, so the ridging across the UK might well prove more stubborn than recent modelling has suggested.

On the other hand, UKMO's a lot less interested, and ECM was even less so last night so who knows, it might be a garden path situation from GFS.

Aside from this minor curiosity, the model output and overall signals going into March could hardly be less interesting. Maybe something warm or cool could turn up from the east or southeast if the MJO phase 2-3 response takes on a neutral ENSO shape, or it could be that it's more Nino-like and we see a windstorm or two, but otherwise... yawn!

Sorry I should have said with a 10 day lag, here you go:

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12942-prediction-madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-impact-european-weather-ecmwf-monthly-forecasts.pdf

Thanks for your comments above, those analogs are interesting, but I do believe the reality of the Nino event we have been through this season, kind of changes the definition, and ultimately is telling to watch the atmosphere is doing in terms of momentum transport and propagation, compared to using oceanic ENSO measurements. 

18 hours ago, Frosty. said:

You don't say...yes it looks like the uk will see a change to atlantic domination with alternating Tm / Pm / rPm airmasses and this is probably wishful thinking but hopefully something from the arctic at some point in march!

Sorry to have to say the obvious, but I do go beyond that initial idea.

[Drifter]

43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Is that pretty much it?? By next weekend we look locked into a zonal pattern for a while, with no real prospect of anything cold in the outlook. PV looking pretty strong for March too, with the AO highly positive - perhaps the highest of the winter!

It has been 'it' for quite some time now surely?

What a disappointing end to a promising winter, looks like an unsettled and average temp start to march.

[Seasonal Trim]

Big 3 up to 144...

 

UKMO

ECM

GFS

Edited February 24, 2019 by Nizzer

[Purga]

May get a tad wet around the 6th March

[Summer Sun]

UKMO/extended maintaining the wetter and winder start to spring

Temps will be falling from current levels but still should be in high single figures to low double figures for most which is respectable for early March and a lot higher than 12 months ago!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Is that pretty much it?? By next weekend we look locked into a zonal pattern for a while, with no real prospect of anything cold in the outlook. PV looking pretty strong for March too, with the AO highly positive - perhaps the highest of the winter!

Only chance that gives us, is the fact that there might still be some upper cold to tap into if we get an Atlantic ridge thrown up in late March or early April.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What a contrast into March, a case of deckchairs at the ready quickly followed by thermals on standby! Typical March affair, at least the month of March may begin to play ball!

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What a contrast into March, a case of deckchairs at the ready quickly followed by thermals on standby! Typical March affair, at least the month of March may begin to play ball!

I wouldn't put much faith in either chart quite frankly both are well out of the reliable time frame

And if by some miracle the 1st chart was bang on I don't think many would be sat outside in deckchairs

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I wouldn't put much faith in either chart quite frankly both are well out of the reliable time frame

And if by some miracle the 1st chart was bang on I don't think many would be sat outside in deckchairs

I based that on the warm upper air projections, precipitation that far out is even less useful than the temperature profile's! 

[Methuselah]

All looks like bog-standard March fare, to me: some sun, some rain, some mild, some cold. And, given the models' collective showing, these past three months, it might be better to ignore the lot of 'em?

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I based that on the warm upper air projections, precipitation that far out is even less useful than the temperature profile's! 

The pressure chart has the high centered over Europe and and extending up towards the UK but not close enough to keep us settled hence the rain on show

[78/79]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO/extended maintaining the wetter and winder start to spring

Temps will be falling from current levels but still should be in high single figures to low double figures for most which is respectable for early March and a lot higher than 12 months ago!

Oh goody, wet and windy crud to try and work in,  oh well,at least I'll be warm when I'm soaking wet through and hardly earning a bean

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The pressure chart has the high centered over Europe and and extending up towards the UK but not close enough to keep us settled hence the rain on show

The basis of my post SS was to demonstrate that March looks more seasonal than this past month, with alternating colder and milder days, not to pick out whether it would be dry or wet on that specific day. 

[Chesil View]

Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it.

The winter showed more promise than it ever delivered for many members on this forum. I count myself lucky to have had at least one very decent snowfall (10cms) which stuck around for about three days.  Which is not to be sniffed at on the south coast of England.

Hopefully next winter will bring something better to all my cold and snow loving fellow members. Until then enjoy spring and summer my friends and I,ll be back in the autumn.  (Unless of course a snowy surprise turns up in the next six weeks lol.)

[E17boy]

Hi evening peeps

Hope everyone is ok and you all have had a nice relaxing weekend. It's been really warm today here in Walthamstow North East London even seen people with t-shirts. What a sight on the 24th Feb, did we ever think at the beginning of the winter season that we would be looking at exceptionally high temperatures on this day.  What a difference a year makes. This time last year we were all jumping with delight and could not wait for the arrival of the beast. Alas that is the weather and sometimes we win and sometimes we lose out. 

Its a bit sad really have got so used to this forum during the season and now people are slowly one by one leaving the winter train. All that is being left behind is the towel that was once clenched but now has been thrown.

Before whoever is left out of the coldies on here decide to leave I just wanted to say a big thank you to you all. The posts have been amazing and the atmosphere has been so family like. There are the more knowledgable ones who have put so much effort in collating different factors and sharing their great knowledge. Without you I would certainly have been lost. For those who will hibernate untill autumn I hope you have a great summer and stay safe and look forward to seeing you on the next winter train. 

That leaves those like me who will remain here for the next search humidity and thunderstorms. Let's hope we have a great storm season coming especially night time storms. 

There is nothing more really to add except this winter has taught us a lot and one thing a lot of us will remember is that no matter how good outside factors may look there is no guarantee the weather will follow that. 

The search for my winter wonderland this season has come to an end. A new chapter will start again in autumn. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening 

stay safe 

kind regards