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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
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Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
46 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I see the warm weather has awoken a troll!

On a serious note, I think a lot of areas may be welcoming the rain as we head into March. If we suffered a dry spring after a dry winter....and not forgetting last summer, we could have had a few issues heading into summer c and falling

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening it's cold outside ,Strong Diurnal temperatures outside cold nights mild days in to next week ,Then the change happens

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What have coldies done to deserve this?..ah well, role on spring!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
9 hours ago, Frosty. said:

What have coldies done to deserve this?..ah well, role on spring!

(CHARTS SNIPPED)

Think you mean roll on summer?!  Spring is well established now.....

Edited by Blessed Weather
Charts removed to shorten quote.
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Minus 12  upper air temps not far away on gfs tonight  winter is coming guys....

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well hellllooooo! What do we have here then, nice little clump of fidgid uppers staring at us from the NE

gfs-1-348.pngruddy shame its nearly 15 days away! 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

18z ensembles showing a fair few around the - 5 mark, also of note the GFSP also making a close call of some really cold uppers to our NE but at a slightly earlier time frame! 

graphe3_1000_254_69___.gif

gfs-1-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

18z ensembles showing a fair few around the - 5 mark, also of note the GFSP also making a close call of some really cold uppers to our NE but at a slightly earlier time frame! 

graphe3_1000_254_69___.gif

gfs-1-288.png

It's just a little airborne! It's still good, it's still good.................

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

It's just a little airborne! It's still good, it's still good.................

If that chart was a couple of days away, the place would be rocking!! I think folk have had enough now, its been a long hard season with little rewards, you just know something will crop up as everybody gives up the chase. That's what the weather wants, it creeps up and hits ya with a big surprise when you least expect it!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

See you all in the new winter season now. Enjoy the mild weather for now and save on the bills

Save on the bills? We have used such a small amount of heating this winter, the gas and electricity board sent an inspector round to see if we had put a magnet on the meter!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Think the models will show an increased wintry looking outlook in the days ahead, you don't get an extreme mild spell like we have had without some sort of payback, let's be honest apart from January the whole winter was mild. 

March and early April has delivered plenty of snowfalls after a mild winter, look at the archives of March 1975 and the repeated snowfalls that March into early April. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK surface chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.dd529e53d82ede0422f1e4a27ea50f49.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.c990639d2c21b93ed452485246df169f.gif93.thumb.gif.c5d0738371ceb712d01fe2e5f24197a6.gif

As can be seen a lot of low Status and mist/fog in central southern areas at the moment but should clear most places during the morning leaving a generally sunny day for the country as a whole. But the cold front associated with the complex area of low pressure to the west is edging east and cloud and patchy rain will reach NW coastal regions by around lunchtime. This will track south east during the afternoon fizzling out as it goes. Another warm day with temps well above average, unless any stratus lingers. and distinctly cooler behind the front.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.6032be921244b8124dbcadb73902e28e.gif1358804564_maxsat.thumb.png.dd394c232208fa9e56dd1c61d454bbd8.pngr13.thumb.png.78ff56e45d03958380306d3a514e94b7.pngr16.thumb.png.ae59c6eae196f7d4ff105f1eadf72070.pngr18.thumb.png.d8c1c43c343f5fd7abb0e61fef719ba3.png

There will be a fair amount of stratus and mist and fog over England and Wales overnight as the weak front stalls, clearer over Scotland and N. Ireland. Thus a mild night with no frost except possibly in the Glens.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.60b55d02e0cfd62c05de17c094276abf.gifgfs_t2min_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.9fd6728038fbdb8e83b189c06db89dd4.png

So a cloudy start to Sunday which will probably burn off during the day resulting inn another warm day but upper cloud may encroach western regions during the afternoon

PPVI89.thumb.gif.0332d38d047995c33b70979864d08333.gifmax.thumb.png.db51ff4b408efcd9522bb0bcb8076b25.png

Over Sunday evening and through early Monday some rain does effect north west Scotland as a frontal system manages to sneak around the blocking high but apart from that another dry and very warm day with temps way above average

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.4145c851732c73745900fb6b0131e88a.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.f777fe415d16f6ab453842fab89ff40b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.a96f9818f88a8fd7562ac236b1598bf6.png

Over Tuesday and Wednesday the blocking high does actually gain a little more traction, so apart from an inconsequential weakening cold front another couple of very warm days.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.4e22501880c3a3e178661673b8b53062.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.82000ef75094bbfcd39ccd43fadf4aaa.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.4f93181ddd650261dc69353a7ec0a90a.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.6ca6a7da16d883b7ea0f16e3262f9100.png

The precipitation for this period

gfs_tprecip_uk2_21.thumb.png.be7dc4f082e4b8d0f432b0875cd44009.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Where we left off above can really be taken as the start of the transition, albeit we may sneak another couple of days out of the fine spell. By T144 pattern changes upstream are ongoing and another major trough has entered the Atlantic and is tracking east.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.f1aaf1760fb0a805425748902d1ea8a5.png

By Saturday frontal rain is crossing the UK as a quite vigorous surface low tracks NNE west of Ireland. This pushes the door ajar and the rest of the ten day period is windy and unsettled as the Atlantic nips through it. Temps hold up pretty well until the end when they are back to varying around the average.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_30.thumb.png.8825a90ead45959b188aa2e90b3915e9.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_36.thumb.png.657e2911633f3b6d96ea61f34d3065e5.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_41.thumb.png.cd8d9ba83d80b91e7ae9b45099477203.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm does bring a waving front through on Thursday, with rain mainly effecting the south of the country, before sweeping more fronts through late Friday with heavy rain and strong winds. And then over the weekend a new depression tracks up from the south west and undergoes explosive cyclogenesis bringing gales force winds and heavy rain on Sunday/Monday. Obviously at this range merely to be noted at the moment

t132.thumb.png.9c3eab8f720d667b945305878cfcc0b5.pngt168.thumb.png.838568a4dcd24a8767144f0cbf66709a.pngt216.thumb.png.7e02e8eb875bdb13abbbfa7f37a0e9a0.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
1 hour ago, icykev said:

Calling it a day! Towell has been thrown

No lasting cold 850s in view again and have been trying to hang in there, still believing since the big bust in January! Was giving it till Sunday but calling it now, hoping as I write this something may still show soon but my faith in model analysis has been broken.

Sad seeing the beeb showing the bfte last year this morning. Siberia!

Unreal graphics on forecasts. Red warnings, (m74) closed. I was on route to Scotland the day after. Made it but couldn't see anything bar the poles on the a66.☺

Enough reminiscing. See u for the thunderstorms during the heat or December for another 47 hunt.

Thanks to you all for your posts. Good and bad. Hot and cold.  

To me the major failure this winter, apart from the ability of anyone to successfully interoperate 'background signals  is the failure of decent heights around Greenland...even now at 144 hrs it screams ridging of the high towards Greenland as we loose the dark blues, yet it decides to flatten and we return to a flat mobile pattern...rubbish winter apart from the event in the south..

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

NAO, fair bit of scatter with a outlier diving negative but to me does look like trending to neutral, whether this goes negative into March is yet to be seen.

nao.sprd2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

A few days since my last post with the 500 mb anomaly charts.

Sat 23 feb

There is no sign whatever of any northern blocking for the uk this morning and last evening on Ec-gfs and noaa 6-10 or 8-14. Looking like atlantic dominated, quite unsettled at times, so March ‘in like a lion’ is a possibility? The contours heights suggest rather coolish air at that height so perhaps more Pm than Tm overall?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
3 hours ago, icykev said:

Calling it a day! Towell has been thrown

No lasting cold 850s in view again and have been trying to hang in there, still believing since the big bust in January! Was giving it till Sunday but calling it now, hoping as I write this something may still show soon but my faith in model analysis has been broken.

Sad seeing the beeb showing the bfte last year this morning. Siberia!

Unreal graphics on forecasts. Red warnings, (m74) closed. I was on route to Scotland the day after. Made it but couldn't see anything bar the poles on the a66.☺

Enough reminiscing. See u for the thunderstorms during the heat or December for another 47 hunt.

Thanks to you all for your posts. Good and bad. Hot and cold.  

It's been a hugely disappointing winter whichever way you look at it. Cheers 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, KTtom said:

To me the major failure this winter, apart from the ability of anyone to successfully interoperate 'background signals  is the failure of decent heights around Greenland...even now at 144 hrs it screams ridging of the high towards Greenland as we loose the dark blues, yet it decides to flatten and we return to a flat mobile pattern...rubbish winter apart from the event in the south..

I don't think it was ever a case of our strat folk on here or beyond of not analysing the signals correctly. Personally I think they did a great job and brought some amazing insight into it, I for one have learnt alot. Let's just say a couple of little flies in the ointment cropped up at short notice and buggered everything up! Even the best of the best have been made to look a little clueless over the events this winter. It only proves the point of how difficult LRF is in this tiny little island, I for one will stand here and thank the guys and gals for bringing such top notch commentary on these events. Hopefully come the end of the year they will have dusted themselves down, and will be ready for round 2 to bring us a much better take on the upcoming winter events. We have all learned something this year, and in the long runs those mistakes will only serve to make you better.

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