Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

[Purga]

Lovely cross polar flow

But, of course. it misses us too far east and we stay in the mild trash throughout...

[chris78]

1 hour ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Just 13c London.  Hardly epic. Over hype as usual

Hottest ever February day in NW England, 17.3 Levens hall Cumbria. Beating a record that stood since 1953.   All hype though hey.   What hope do the forecasters and media have, when, in the face of clear facts, some people still think they got it wrong?

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Just 13c London.  Hardly epic. Over hype as usual

Since the average for this time of year is around 9c..13c isn't bad..many areas have been mid teens c or higher!!

Anyway, the Gfs 12z shows around another 7 or 8 days of very mild and largely fine weather with sunny spells and light winds (breezy in the west / northwest at first) and an ongoing  risk of fog forming where skies clear..very remarkable spring-like spell for so early!

Edited February 22, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Don't think these ensembles are gonna cut it for any meaningful snow. The mean is just below 0c, and an equal amount going above, as below. Need to see that - 10 breeched more frequently to have any chance at this time of the year. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Don't think these ensembles are gonna cut it for any meaningful snow. The mean is just below 0c, and an equal amount going above, as below. Need to see that - 10 breeched more frequently to have any chance at this time of the year. 

Yes, although there are a few that give good snow events but they would really need to be greater in number to signify a realistic chance as its not deep deep FI, so you would't expect a load more to jump on, particularly as there are not many on the EPS either.

[cheese]

53 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Hottest ever February day in NW England, 17.3 Levens hall Cumbria. Beating a record that stood since 1953.   All hype though hey.   What hope do the forecasters and media have, when, in the face of clear facts, some people still think they got it wrong?

It’s hype because the warmest weather isn’t in the SE for a change. Over 16C today in Leeds with beautiful sunshine.

Edited February 22, 2019 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

It’s hype because the warmest weather isn’t in the SE for a change. Over 16C today in Leeds with beautiful sunshine.

Aye, dunno who can want horrible PM air and wet weather 5 degrees over this

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, dunno who can want horrible PM air and wet weather 5 degrees over this

Agreed, if we can't have proper cold and snow I would rather have what we have now!..however, looking at the models there are signs of change but at least another week or so of this beautiful spring weather!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, if we can't have proper cold and snow I would rather have what we have now!..however, looking at the models there are signs of change but at least another week or so of this beautiful spring weather!

only person who won't agree is Summer Sun, but let it last! hopefully signs of models prolonging it on todays 12Z's

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

only person who won't agree is Summer Sun, but let it last! hopefully signs of models prolonging it on todays 12Z's

Nope - he will be out enjoying this. Plus i don't like this.

[Purga]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, dunno who can want horrible PM air and wet weather 5 degrees over this

Nice clean clear PM air usually delivers higher temps and much more sunshine here than the rubbish we have at the moment i.e. 8C and dull as ditch water all day.

I honestly can't see the attraction ...

[jethro]

Leaving temperature to one side, it's been remarkably dry too. Been digging today and the ground is the driest I've ever known it to be in February. Personally speaking, I'm loving this warm, dry weather, really don't want a return to winter until at least December. I'm hoping the models predicting cold in the first week of March are as wide of the mark as they have been for much of the winter.

[Norrance]

Back to the models please. Chat about weather preferences can go to the Winter chat thread ta.

[knocker]

The ecm begins the transition on Thursday with front(s) crossing the country. But Friday is the real turning point with more fronts bringing some heavy rain and strong winds across the north and from then on unsettled and windy is the name of the game with temps slowly returning to near average

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z is not completely without interest for coldies, there are a few cold shots in there with -10 850's but the mean indicates a prolonged unsettled atlantic spell from towards the end of next week onwards with temperatures gradually returning closer to where they should be during the very early stages of spring...but that doesn't preclude the risk of snow, at least on high ground and further north from time to time.

Edited February 22, 2019 by Frosty.

[chris55]

UKMO 144 lots of very cold air filtering down to the north east.

Can the pattern evolve to back it west?  

Who knows? At face value it can’t be discounted. Just a nudge here and there and we’d be in business. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Slight drop on the 12s to this mornings runs! But my god waiting for something significant to devolop is becoming one long painful slog, 3 months I've been at this now and it's beginning to take its toll!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeping us in a mild flow of air some patchy rain around but not huge amounts

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, following a very mild and generally settled first half with high pressure in control..gradually becoming more unsettled from the west and temperatures slowly returning closer to average.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, following a very mild and generally settled first half with high pressure in control..gradually becoming more unsettled from the west and temperatures slowly returning closer to average.

Yes frosty it's all looking a bit meh don't you think, know real sign of height rises in the proper places, and at day 10 it seems milder conditions Trying  to push up from the S/SW again, the clock is ticking... Bloody good job I've got A 10year battery life!

[Frosty.]

40 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Slight drop on the 12s to this mornings runs! But my god waiting for something significant to devolop is becoming one long painful slog, 3 months I've been at this now and it's beginning to take its toll!

Good-humoured and sums up the feelings of any coldies who are left on here following the mass exodus!!

Edited February 22, 2019 by Frosty.

[chris55]

Three weeks ago today I had this in my front garden -

Three weeks later and it’s getting on for 17c with light winds and lots of sunshine .

Can winter dig back in before the seasons move to far beyond the potential? March can certainly deliver when it comes to cold and snow so I’d say don’t throw the towel in quite yet,  but enjoy the early spring either way. 

 

[bluearmy]

Given the polar profile at day 6, it would be surprising not to see some wintry week 2 members in the ens. However, the ops and means are not interested in making anything of the potential split so I would expect the drift into unsettled, cooler and mobile late next week to continue 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

Leaving temperature to one side, it's been remarkably dry too. Been digging today and the ground is the driest I've ever known it to be in February. Personally speaking, I'm loving this warm, dry weather, really don't want a return to winter until at least December. I'm hoping the models predicting cold in the first week of March are as wide of the mark as they have been for much of the winter.

Evening ! and great post.. I love the crisp clear mornings with some frost  and some mild days... Hate the sensational February warmth , Unfortunately , that is what Netweather  posts and is not true.... ! Anyway mild conditions prevailing for a while..and the Atlantic comes back....

[mb018538]

I see the warm weather has awoken a troll!

On a serious note, I think a lot of areas may be welcoming the rain as we head into March. If we suffered a dry spring after a dry winter....and not forgetting last summer, we could have had a few issues heading into summer 2019.