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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended leaves the UK in a westerly flow with some rain around but not a total washout by any means

Given it's a westerly it'll be remaining mild though not to the extent we're seeing now

ukm2.2019030100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.89147944f3ed06de626df2e74014e84c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

So yet again it's a lovely start to the day deep in febuary, quite bizarre going on what we experienced this time last year. Will it continue is the question? 5 or 6 more days looks a good call currently with temps still ranging mid to high teens, obviously this being dependent on cloud amounts and any overnight fog that could linger. Even though the long range models now hint at a change later next week, let's bare in mind they have seriously underperformed this winter! But the jet does look like it will be gaining a bit of resurgence and will eventually shift this persistent block we have in play. With the jet moving in on a southerly latitude the air to the north could be quite cold at times, colder enough for snow in the north, but I wouldn't rule it completely out further south at times. Those hoping for a BFTE part 2 may be disappointed, as you will be aware at this point of the year the continent tends to warm on a daily basis, especially as there is know constant influx of Arctic air! Estly winds can't be ruled out but any long fetch and long standing ones are very unlikely. On the basis of things the current trend of more unsettled conditions should be most welcome, being such a dry winter in all. Maybe a chance to top up the very low reservoirs! Obviously not all places will see a great deal of the wet stuff, especially those in the SE. Anything remotely close to last summer weather wise and we could end up in serious trouble if this spring does not deliver appreciable rain amounts. So signs of change with more unsettled conditions, perhaps even some snow at times as winds turn more N/NWtly, beyond that..... Who knows!! Hopefully another barn storming summer, suncream and deck chairs at the ready!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

All aboard the -AO train - just in time for Spring - at last some belated good news to get rid of this oppressive heat.

image.thumb.png.2d514cbfadc05296f5deb01c12e4fa8f.png

EDIT : Just looked at the rest of the run on wetter - a stonker, snow would be involved, difficult to say the latitude and altitude cut off point.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

6 days left of Winter technically. No real sign of anything particularly cold within the reliable timeframe.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Interesting GFS output: nothing much of anything really, apart from a general cool-down - and, more distressingly for me, there's the 'potential' for some coldish grot...:cray:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Interesting GFS output: nothing much of anything really, apart from a general cool-down - and, more distressingly for me, there's the 'potential' for some coldish grot...

Plenty of interest there Edd, just look at that low as it spins eastwards and pulls in some real cold air, could bring quite a bit of snow up north! 

gfs-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All aboard the -AO train - just in time for Spring - at last some belated good news to get rid of this oppressive heat.

image.thumb.png.2d514cbfadc05296f5deb01c12e4fa8f.png

EDIT : Just looked at the rest of the run on wetter - a stonker, snow would be involved, difficult to say the latitude and altitude cut off point.

Oh wow haha. Oppressive... really?

True enough though, like clockwork, new month will bring new weather. The Atlantic returning and possibly some decent pm shots. I still think we will be looking NW and N rather than E unless there are some solid undercuts.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Temp of 15C in north Wales at 1100 with one or two others in that region. Quite suppressed in central southern areas with mist/fog and low stratus lingering/ Almost total Ci cover down here

11.thumb.gif.a7436b3d13306093dda593ad44b5955c.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
47 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All aboard the -AO train - just in time for Spring - at last some belated good news to get rid of this oppressive heat

"Oppressive heat"!?

Are you ill?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looks like the ridge has given up the ghost by day 9:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019022200_216.

Low pressure finally breaking the door down.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019022200_360.

Low pressure in charge right out to day 15 - a small cluster has a weak ridge pushing in, but other than that get ready for some wind and rain. Nothing cold of offer at present, other than perhaps a couple of NW PM shots for the far north and high ground.

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
2 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Yes CFS and JMA long rangers were relentless in predicting a severely blocked February. Lol

Well it has been - just not in the way most of us wanted!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Gefs 6z ensembles, still on the cold side, would be seriously worried if this was an ECG graph as one seems to have flatlined right down to the - 10 mark!

graphe3_1000_262_92___.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

So looks like a change to much more unsettled weather towards the end of next week,and obviously a downturn in temperatures ,can we get at least one potent Arctic outbreak next month,didn’t get a decent one all winter,only in fl ,and not one ever  verified

^the green run looks interesting can anyone find it,hope it verifies just once a year ☹️

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So looks like a change to much more unsettled weather towards the end of next week,and obviously a downturn in temperatures ,can we get at least one potent Arctic outbreak next month,didn’t get a decent one all winter,only in fl ,and not one ever  verified

^the green run looks interesting can anyone find it,hope it verifies just once a year ☹️

Could it be this one sleety! 

gens-3-1-240.png

gens-3-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS on the 14th for tomorrow

51926034_2681666435183443_8583058194740281344_n.thumb.jpg.5ae3ff9de1cdfdd3533ca8a8f4a6814d.jpg

GFS today for tomorrow

9090.thumb.png.5f827be6e7465cdec018161e2abec663.png

Considering how far in advance it picked up this signal it's not a bad effort at all

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
28 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Could it be this one sleety! 

gens-3-1-240.png

gens-3-0-240.png

image.png.b7da52af1e7f1fc462c9649d9bc76e9a.png

Nice try though

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Icon 12z continues to upgrade the current warm spell in terms of longevity!!so far out to 150 hours and warm and sunny all the way through!!amazing for february!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Just 13c London.  Hardly epic. Over hype as usual

There'll no be any wildebeest in your backyard, this weekend, then?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
33 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Just 13c London.  Hardly epic. Over hype as usual

If you noted the prediction yesterday it spoke of fog and low stratus, hence the lower temperatures for some SE'ern areas. Most of the rest of the country is basking in warm sunshine.

Edited by johnholmes
usual spelling errors
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

And back to Model Output discussion please, There is a daily weather observation thread open for general daily weather chat.

Thanks, Please continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

12z so close to getting interesting regarding a final shot of winter.., heights in the right place to the north just need the lobe of vortex southern Greenland to back off west.....

GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

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Guest Delete Me
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS on the 14th for tomorrow

51926034_2681666435183443_8583058194740281344_n.thumb.jpg.5ae3ff9de1cdfdd3533ca8a8f4a6814d.jpg

GFS today for tomorrow

9090.thumb.png.5f827be6e7465cdec018161e2abec663.png

Considering how far in advance it picked up this signal it's not a bad effort at all

 

 

Spot on for my area anyway.

Hopefully the GFS will have this level of accuracy all year!

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