Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Has it not updated or is it showing dross?

Dross, Atlantic trough, then more icelandic with strong Euro heights - classic Bartlett setup.

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still no joy on the EC46.

I wouldn't trust it whatever it shows, we (coldies) know how terribly badly the February long range prediction has gone compared to the good chance of a freeze that was indicated day after day, week after week through january from exeter who use GloSea5 seasonal / Mogreps..among other data ..anyway, moving on..the omega block persists well into next week with plenty more very mild fine weather but then the jet profile changes back to a more typical position and we get a cooler more unsettled atlantic pattern.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dross, Atlantic trough, then more icelandic with strong Euro heights - classic Bartlett setup.

Hopefully it will continue to be as accurate as it has been all winter then!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just to show how much of a joke the EC46 has been 

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Yep so called mild spell is turning out to be more cloudy and wildly over egged temps

It would help everyone to judge your comments if you put your nearest town in please?

thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just to show how much of a joke the EC46 has been 

 

 

That is one member out of 51.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

That is one member out of 51.

Well I wasn't gonna post em all Feb, the bottom line being they pointed to an extremely cold and blocked january

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well I wasn't gonna post em all Feb, the bottom line being they pointed to an extremely cold and blocked january

And February..or was that the mighty CFS

Edited February 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well I wasn't gonna post em all Feb, the bottom line being they pointed to an extremely cold and blocked january

Was it an overwhelming signal or was it really wedges?, the temperature anomalies shown below would suggest  proper blocking, but BA said it was a bit more mobile and the only omnipresent feature was the Euro trough, not the Greenland high.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

 

Edited February 21, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was it an overwhelming signal or was it really wedges?, the temperature anomalies shown below would suggest  proper blocking, but BA said it was a bit more mobile and the only omnipresent feature was the Euro trough, not the Greenland high.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

 

Prior to mid January cold zonal shots of maritime air bringing below average temps and increasing snow to the north, around mid Jan the overwhelming signal was for extensive Atlantic and then Greenland blocking suggesting a much more significant cold spell from the east! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And February..or was that the mighty CFS

Tbh frosty I've stopped viewing the lrf models now as they have so underperformed! I did start looking at the CMA, nasa and even Brazilian model then I quickly realized it wasnt gonna end well!

[feb1991blizzard]

52 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I wouldn't trust it whatever it shows, we (coldies) know how terribly badly the February long range prediction has gone compared to the good chance of a freeze that was indicated day after day, week after week through january from exeter who use GloSea5 seasonal / Mogreps..among other data ..anyway, moving on..the omega block persists well into next week with plenty more very mild fine weather but then the jet profile changes back to a more typical position and we get a cooler more unsettled atlantic pattern.

You would think that the fact that the Met Office 30 dayer now agrees with it gives it credence, i doubt given the Met Office's Easterly failure and potent cold failure would suggest they would be very wary about dropping it unless they were sure, imagine how stupid that would make them look, as soon as they predict zonal mild, the previously predicted cold arrives, makes me think they are pretty sure, for the next 3-4 weeks that is, of course it could change again right at the end.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You would think that the fact that the Met Office 30 dayer now agrees with it gives it credence, i doubt given the Met Office's Easterly failure and potent cold failure would suggest they would be very wary about dropping it unless they were sure, imagine how stupid that would make them look, as soon as they predict zonal mild, the previously predicted cold arrives, makes me think they are pretty sure, for the next 3-4 weeks that is, of course it could change again right at the end.

Good points, but what happens if EC46 and Glosea are in complete disagreement! The funny thing is how much attention can you give to your 30 day forecast when you know such a minor infringement can throw it completely out! We all know a forecast beyond 7 days is nigh on impossible at times, and it's only trends you can go on, but like I said above, just one minuscule change and everything is out of kilter again.. 

Edited February 21, 2019 by Mattwolves

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good points, but what happens if EC46 and Glosea are in complete disagreement! The funny thing is how much attention can you give to your 30 day forecast when you know such a minor infringement can throw it completely out! We all know a forecast beyond 7 days is nigh on impossible at times, and it's only trends you can go on, but like I said above, just one minuscule change and everything is out of kilter again.. 

The fact that the MO agree with the EC46 suggests that the GLOSEA5 and EC46 are not in complete disagreement, i will stop short of saying they are in complete agreement though as they very rarely are, purely because of the time scales we are talking, plus i don't have the output to hand.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The fact that the MO agree with the EC46 suggests that the GLOSEA5 and EC46 are not in complete disagreement, i will stop short of saying they are in complete agreement though as they very rarely are, purely because of the time scales we are talking, plus i don't have the output to hand.

Well if they've been in agreement with it all winter know wonder there forecasts have been wide of the mark! I've got a feeling come next winter some of the main weather agencies will be a bit more skeptical about predicting how cold or blocked it maybe. You will find the wording will state their is a chance, but know means a guarantee! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dross, Atlantic trough, then more icelandic with strong Euro heights - classic Bartlett setup.

Better get the woollies on standby then I guess. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

An early morning booooooom! Just for the sheer hell of it being the first real Nthly blast of the winter, even though its in fi, where have you been?? We have been waiting 3 months!

[knocker]

Outlook -In the near time frame pretty much as has been previously discussed. Essentially upper troughs to the west, blocking high to the east with the UK just about under the influence of the latter with surface systems tracking north on the eastern flank of the former just tending to effect the north west

The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the surface UK chart for 0400

As can be seen plenty of Stratus and mist/fog in central southern areas this morning which will slowly clear all but eastern coastal areas, leaving a dry day but perhaps with diffuse sunshine. Sunny elsewhere apart from W/NW regions where it will be cloudy with some rain, and quite breezy, in the latter from a passing front. Another day with temps well above average, particularly in favored spots, and the Feb record for Wales may be under threat

The Stratus and mist/fog will roll back into central areas again this evening and overnight with everywhere else being clear apart from, again, the north west

The Mist/fog will again clear through saturday morning leaving everywhere with another sunny and warm day with temps again well above average. But a cold front associated with one of those systems mentioned at the beginning  has edged into western regions thus more cloud and breezy again with  rain in the north west.

Sunday another dry and warm day as any fronts lose their identity as yet another deep low in the Atlantic tracks north towards Greenland

Over Monday and Tuesday little change so waffle can be kept to a minimum this morning. Again temps well above average and once any mist/fog clears quite sunny. Again the far north west being the exception

 

[knocker]

Continuing with the gfs. It is still looking at the beginning of the pattern change around T144

But the blocking high does appear to  put up more of a fight this morning. Of course probably inter run variations so any detail to be treated with the usual caution. At T168 and 192 the ridge is still in business with the Atlantic trough stalling and coming  to a bit of a sticky end so still dry with temps above average but not as much as earlier. But by Saturday a front does manage to cross the country bringing rain and strong winds to the north

Edited February 22, 2019 by knocker

[chris55]

GFS para and the control run go cold beyond day 10, para quite snowy. Would be a shock to the system after the current mild weather.

[Tom Quintavalle]

18 minutes ago, chris55 said:

GFS para and the control run go cold beyond day 10, para quite snowy. Would be a shock to the system after the current mild weather.

Yes Chris,

the 00z ECM looks as if it could introduce a wintry Northerly, if it went beyond t240.

Regards,

Tom.  

[knocker]

The ecm much more aggressive vis the ingress of the Atlantic in the 6-10 period. By Thursday midday a front brings some rain to the north and from this point until the end of the run, unsettled with periods of showers and more concentrated rain and very windy. Temps still a tad above average

[Newberryone]

1 minute ago, TomSE12 said:

Yes Chris,

the 00z ECM looks as if it could introduce a wintry Northerly, if it went beyond t240.

Regards,

Tom.  

But hasn’t that been the story of this winter, signs of anything potentially wintry have nearly always remained outside the day ten range. Besides, like the gfs the 00z Ecm run seems to be yet again delaying any breakdown with the block proving more resilient. Wouldn’t surprise me to see this eastern block continuing to plague us well into March. 

[knocker]

The 0700 UK surface chart

[knocker]

The EPS still indicating, as with the det run, the transition to more unsettled weather in the 7-12 period with temps slowly returning to near average