Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I

I wonder how the 30N AAM is looking (any signs of the -AAM dissipating?); I can never get the observational link to work without a security warning .

 

Does this link show what you're after?

http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
47 minutes ago, knocker said:

I don't normally look at the 0600 output but I did this morning as 7-12 appears to be the crtical period

Difficult to believe (and I don't) what the gfs det run has come up with, dropping the vortex lobe down the eastern seaboards although the general theme does have some support from the GEFS

gfs_z500a_nh_37.thumb.png.330b732aa26dacc54cd5cee7469da500.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_51.thumb.png.11d7ac3b818478f9eb46e07a416fdbf0.png

Are both of those strongly indicative of a Arctic high, seems as good a reset for something interesting.

Especially for my annual birthday trip to cooler climates. Iceland this time  though even at mid Month, my luck often transpires that it snows here, whilst I'm on the hunt somewhere else.

Maybe because I have northern elevation but I never give up hope until after my birthday as I've been lucky so many times, perhaps something to do with final warnings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Does this link show what you're after?

http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

 

They're latitudinal means, but you can still see that there's -AAM hanging about at the moment. Thanks for that! 

If only there were model projections represented in that way - maybe I can suggest that to Dr. Gensini...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Plenty of colder options amongst the 6z ensembles. Looking like this current early spring could be proving to be a false dawn. 

graphe3_1000_239_68___.gif

Yaeah always was gping to be the case when you get such a ridiculous mild spell in February  I think the models will show some big northerly outbreaks soon  full on winter conditions for the mountains soon, and snow spreading to lower and lower levels as we head further into spring, AGAIN

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
1 hour ago, IDO said:

Yes, cannot argue with that!

Amazing Feb for warmth, Kinross already at 16.7c! Foehn effect, may break Feb record?

Wales should be close to breaking the record for Feb tomorrow!

Feb CET now at +2.3c above climate!

Front-loaded or rear-loaded, this Winter has fooled many of us!!!

Feb record indeed! Incredible really. 

I enjoy this time of the year due to the swings you can get from warm to cold and vice versa.

GFS is showing PM air which would pack a punch on ground over 200 meters in the North and West - last minute surprises elsewhere I would imagine if we got very lucky! (If snow is what you are looking for) 

 

35930A65-4371-4080-8060-78273DEDFCD2.png

 

Edit: ☀️

8304B456-0638-49BB-B3CC-8C0201C8A067.thumb.png.bf57b6ca61b10ad072945932926c8f9c.png

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Quite high confidence in the ensembles that the settled period will end early March

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019022100_276.

but I've noticed the unsettled forecasts have been struggling to verify in recent months, so need to let this run a little more

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite high confidence in the ensembles that the settled period will end early March

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019022100_276.

but I've noticed the unsettled forecasts have been struggling to verify in recent months, so need to let this run a little more

Plus anything remotely cold rarely verifies 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Definite trend down across recent GEFS suites after the exceptional mild period

image.thumb.png.077145dbc1d291413b845533cf56193f.png

Having said that, locally it's been rather dank and uninspiring 9-11 C.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Is the GFSP and its cold bias over blowing the uppers over UK in fi, also worth nothing the - 16 uppers approaching Central Europe! 

gfs-1-288.png

gfs-1-360.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
12 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Scottish February record broken, Aboyne at 18.3C. A record that has stood for 122years, Aberdeen 17.9C https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9420-weather-february-record-broken-in-scotland-today-after-standing-for-over-100-years 

2102aboyne2.png

All this proves of course is what most of us  already know. That is that in the supposedly extraordinary mild spells it is in fact just a few localised areas that get exceptionally mild due to extreme localised Fohn effects whilst most other areas just endure averagely mild temps. At my southern location maxes of 11 and 12 so far this week in a chilly breeze. Nothing abnormal for late Feb mild spell so far.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Just now, karyo said:

Astonishing comment! Just because your location is not well above average it means that this mild spell is nothing noteworthy??

His point is the high temperatures are localised and require specific setups to reach most of the time was the all time UK record dependant on the fohn affect 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

His point is the high temperatures are localised and require specific setups to reach most of the time was the all time UK record dependant on the fohn affect 

The high temperatures are not localised at all! Many central and northern areas are recording 15-17c. The poster's location is probably cooler because of the english channel moderating effect.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, IDO said:

7-8c above average in many places is exceptional. You cannot spin it any other way!

Of course, there is a variation throughout the UK, that is why we use CET.

13-15 c forecast for my location for the next 7 days. It is also extraordinary as it is not a one-day wonder!

Although the Fohn effect has assisted in breaking the records today, those records no doubt were also subject to that effect!

This is February!!!

Just imagine what it'd be like in here, were it to be 8C below normal, for this many days - with another six to come...

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
57 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Scottish February record broken, Aboyne at 18.3C. A record that has stood for 122years, Aberdeen 17.9C https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9420-weather-february-record-broken-in-scotland-today-after-standing-for-over-100-years 

2102aboyne2.png

Imagine you were an Aboyne Cattle Farmer and you read the Met Office long ranger a couple of weeks ago and were therefore expecting North Easterlies and likely ice days with snow, you would be planning to keep your cattle in their sheds and maybe ordering feed, i.e more expense for the farm.

The reality is the temperature is probably some 20 degrees WRONG at a relatively short time frame. Some farmers will be counting the cost.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The warmest day in my back garden since mid November, 18.8 C and very little wind either. The airport, some 3 miles away showing winds up to 20 mph at times with temperatures reaching 17.5 C

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

All this proves of course is what most of us  already know. That is that in the supposedly extraordinary mild spells it is in fact just a few localised areas that get exceptionally mild due to extreme localised Fohn effects whilst most other areas just endure averagely mild temps. At my southern location maxes of 11 and 12 so far this week in a chilly breeze. Nothing abnormal for late Feb mild spell so far.

Bristol forecast to be 13/14c for 5 days in a row in last third of February. Even for these parts that is a v mild, unusual spell of weather for late Feb. The forecast longevity seems to be increasing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
58 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Imagine you were an Aboyne Cattle Farmer and you read the Met Office long ranger a couple of weeks ago and were therefore expecting North Easterlies and likely ice days with snow, you would be planning to keep your cattle in their sheds and maybe ordering feed, i.e more expense for the farm.

The reality is the temperature is probably some 20 degrees WRONG at a relatively short time frame. Some farmers will be counting the cost.

And according to  this afternoons gfs run they  could be digging themselves out of snow in Abyone first week of March,possible big turnaround soon,if the models continue with this theme

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...