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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?


Paul
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Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Paul said:

It will be (today) and has already been 7 or 8c+ warmer than usual for the time of year. What terminology would you use to describe the weather becoming cooler? 

Colder.

EDIT : from my POV i would agree with you as i have been wearing a T-shirt, but a woman said to me yesterday 'ent you cold in that t-shirt', so i am in a minority, double figures with an 8-10mph breeze is still thick coat territory for most people.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Colder.

EDIT : from my POV i would agree with you as i have been wearing a T-shirt, but a woman said to me yesterday 'ent you cold in that t-shirt', so i am in a minority, double figures with an 8-10mph breeze is still thick coat territory for most people.

 

Yes while it's a fact that the weather is well above average millions will still have put the heating on this morning for an hour to take the edge off and many will be wearing jackets out and about today. But for some reason people love to make a point that they're only wearing a t-shirt, like it's some status thing or machismo. It's all pov anyway, i will be wearing a jumper today as imo it's still coolish in the shade but that's hardly scientific.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Yes while it's a fact that the weather is well above average millions will still have put the heating on this morning for an hour to take the edge off and many will be wearing jackets out and about today. But for some reason people love to make a point that they're only wearing a t-shirt, like it's some status thing or machismo. It's all pov anyway, i will be wearing a jumper today as imo it's still coolish in the shade but that's hardly scientific.

Disagree with that though, its comfortable in a T-shirt for me, except when it starts raining or goes cloudy perhaps, but i would rather have that than being too hot in high temps because there is no way i would ever wear shorts, i am a 40+ grown man, not a child.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
53 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Extended 00z EPS (days 10-15) suggest a general downward trend in T850s and heights from the west across western Europe, indicative of westerlies featuring increasingly prolonged and colder Polar maritime airmasses visiting the UK. However, Pm flows in early March IMO likely more marginal than we saw back in late January/early Feb - so wouldn't expect as much snow away from northern hills as we saw a few weeks back! But the trend, for now, is increasingly unsettled and cooler/colder westerlies pushing out high pressure as we start March.

Just a question on the moderation of PM flows why is this the case when you'd assume the Atlantic would be much cooler now than in January?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Just a question on the moderation of PM flows why is this the case when you'd assume the Atlantic would be much cooler now than in January?

I would argue that the dynamics of the current NH profile will be favourable for colder than climate PM bursts this March.

We have disruption to the PV 850s from the wedge of heights on the Pacific high latitude up till around D12. Although, as per this winter the PV will recover, the main 850's vortex looks like repositioning to our north. So less travel and colder origin.

T228: gfsnh-1-228.thumb.png.67eeded2211add83572f4f609a6f870f.png At D16: gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.2499b1c1091f846559c16c5cd4bc090e.png 

Mean at D16; gensnh-21-0-384.thumb.png.9ad518e90ff76d4e059373177891bd40.png

The potential for a cooler/colder than average PM flow, but more runs needed for clarity. Though for those in the south, not really a synoptic that will excite.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
14 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Just a question on the moderation of PM flows why is this the case when you'd assume the Atlantic would be much cooler now than in January?

True, the Atlantic SSTs likely cooled off since Jan after the persistent cold Pm air crossing towards Europe into early Feb, but I would think with longer daylight and higher angle of sun there will be greater moderation of the moist long-fetch maritime flow come early March, a drier cold continental flow or drier arctic northerly wouldn't be affected so much by the longer days/sun aspect, as we saw in March 2018. But be interesting to see how cold a Pm flow will be in early March and whether it can produce much in the way of snow away from high ground, I would think more of struggle than earlier in winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Disagree with that though, its comfortable in a T-shirt for me, except when it starts raining or goes cloudy perhaps, but i would rather have that than being too hot in high temps because there is no way i would ever wear shorts, i am a 40+ grown man, not a child.

Same here, feb...I'm 62, and I'll go out wearing a T-shirt whenever the weather is warm enough - which, in my case, is better than around 9C...Nowt to do with 'machismo', that's for sure!:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Same here, feb...I'm 62, and I'll go out wearing a T-shirt whenever the weather is warm enough - which, in my case, is better than around 9C...Nowt to do with 'machismo', that's for sure!:oldgrin:

And even less to do with model output ....

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Gfs 6z still carrying on with the cooler/colder theme, looks like some NWtly airmasses could pack a punch at times, I would expect areas at elevation and especially further north could see a fair bit of snow! One to watch for sure. 

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-1-276.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Gfs 6z still carrying on with the cooler/colder theme, looks like some NWtly airmasses could pack a punch at times, I would expect areas at elevation and especially further north could see a fair bit of snow! One to watch for sure. 

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-1-276.png

Its not often you see - 40c T850's modelled and they are modelled on our side of the NH for once. A long way off but I feel more confident of a colder spell in early mid march this morning. The pattern is changing upstream and this could  give us a cold zonal flow with potential lee northerly's/North easterlies and toppling cold high pressures. Good for the north and west and potentially other areas. Things could get better from there for cold. We will see,

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Are we about to pull in a NE'ly as the low clear SE, would be interesting with backedge snow! Not seen a chart like that for a while! 

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes GFS certainly advertising an unsettled N/W flow into Wk2 2. So something cooler into the new Month..

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

Given lying snow is possible in London until the end of March, far too early to completely give up on seeing the white stuff.

GFS 06Z OP teases at a trough disrupting SE in early March with  -8 uppers transient in the east which would be good enough for something wintry I'd imagine. As per usual, there is no height rise to the NE so the jet shifts back north and the Atlantic rolls back in.

Plenty of signs that, relative to the coming weekend, temperatures will be much lower in early March though hardly exceptional and more like a return to average from well above average.

We often see this conflict between colder and warmer air masses in March as the atmosphere evolves from its winter state.

Also just to note a hint of the slightest of warmings from the North American side into FI - not a meaningful Wave 1 but I wonder if it could displace the PV to Siberia with all that flows.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

ECM upgrade coming mid-2019 so will be interesting if they have corrected the algorithmic bias for HP systems:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/upgrade-ecmwfs-forecasting-system-planned-june

Those D8-10 erroneous winter charts may be a crowd pleaser but would lead to less disappointment in the long run if they are corrected!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM upgrade coming mid-2019 so will be interesting if they have corrected the algorithmic bias for HP systems:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/upgrade-ecmwfs-forecasting-system-planned-june

Those D8-10 erroneous winter charts may be a crowd pleaser but would lead to less disappointment in the long run if they are corrected!

The GFS modelled a true snow laden NE flow into about 132 in January so lets get rid of this myth that its only the ECM that outputs phantom beasts.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Plenty of colder options amongst the 6z ensembles. Looking like this current early spring could be proving to be a false dawn. 

graphe3_1000_239_68___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS modelled a true snow laden NE flow into about 132 in January so lets get rid of this myth that its only the ECM that outputs phantom beasts.

I did not say GFS verifies better.

However, the ECM is beloved, even though it performs poorly at times, and acknowledging that is sensible.

The 06z by D16 has the mean 850s at climate: graphe9_1000_309_150___.thumb.gif.4f8625f8d759c92506765fcc47bcf054.gif

Op, C and Para lead the colder routes.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, IDO said:

I did not say GFS verifies better.

However, the ECM is beloved, even though it performs poorly at times, and acknowledging that is sensible.

The 06z by D16 has the mean 850s at climate: graphe9_1000_309_150___.thumb.gif.4f8625f8d759c92506765fcc47bcf054.gif

Op, C and Para lead the colder routes.

Never said you did, but obviously the person who posts 'boom' and the like over an ECM 240 chart will also do over a GFS 240 chart, i do it myself, but surely the sensible statement would have been to say, 'don't bother with op runs at 240 full stop' 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I don't normally look at the 0600 output but I did this morning as 7-12 appears to be the crtical period

Difficult to believe (and I don't) what the gfs det run has come up with, dropping the vortex lobe down the eastern seaboards although the general theme does have some support from the GEFS

gfs_z500a_nh_37.thumb.png.330b732aa26dacc54cd5cee7469da500.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_51.thumb.png.11d7ac3b818478f9eb46e07a416fdbf0.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Never said you did, but obviously the person who posts 'boom' and the like over an ECM 240 chart will also do over a GFS 240 chart, i do it myself, but surely the sensible statement would have been to say, 'don't bother with op runs at 240 full stop' 

2

Yes, cannot argue with that!

Amazing Feb for warmth, Kinross already at 16.7c! Foehn effect, may break Feb record?

Wales should be close to breaking the record for Feb tomorrow!

Feb CET now at +2.3c above climate!

Front-loaded or rear-loaded, this Winter has fooled many of us!!!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Interesting to see the det. runs suddenly lurching toward lowering heights over Europe starting around D9. Ties in with a lagged MJO P8 response.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

EPS have, as I expected, corrected to a slower departure from P8, with it now looking to stick around there 4 or 5 days longer before getting a move on east.

I wonder how the 30N AAM is looking (any signs of the -AAM dissipating?); I can never get the observational link to work without a security warning .

Need to see more movement from the ensembles before any confidence in a low-dominated spell for mainland Europe can be had. If it happens, probably mostly cool or chilly in the UK but some snow possible for northern parts, maybe central if a low dives in the right way. May struggle to get any to settle at low levels after such a balmy second half to Feb, though.

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