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Model Discussion - Spring approaches - how warm at the end of this week?

Paul

Please only post model related discussion in this thread.
For non-model related moans, chat and talk about the winter in general please head over to the winter chat thread

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A new model thread as we near a new season. Now we're out of the winter rush, we're onto a single model related thread again, so please keep it to the models in here. 

There's a fair bit of interest currently with some unusually mild air on the way later this week and into the weekend. Looks like temperatures records could be threatened, at least the daily and regional ones, the UK record of 19.7c seems quite unlikely at the moment. 

Beyond that, lots of uncertainty - take your pick from more of the same, a colder still mostly blocked picture or the return of the Atlantic - so plenty to be keeping an eye on as we end the winter.


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Alternate Threads
If you want to chat about the winter in general, have a moan about it, or whatever else, there is a thread here for that:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91052-winter-weather-chat-moans-banter-and-ramps/

The Spring thread is also up and running:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91223-spring-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

And for the Met Office outlooks, there's this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

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ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
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Rain from the warm front of the approaching system is already into Northern Ireland and north western coastal regions, This will track east through this evening and overnight effecting all areas, apart from the far south, but the heaviest of of the rain will be in north western regions, particularly south west Scotland The warm front will clear into the North Sea in the early hours but the waving cold front will bring further rain to western Scotland, in particular, and N. Ireland, tomorrow morning. As it's cloudy and quite breezy no frost

PPVA89.thumb.gif.c18184b6e5e91d531893623fd4ab1219.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.4af6176a9244dd8327cdabee18363a3d.gifr19.thumb.png.f3a14d95da57a76c33849cd2264ddf32.pngr00.thumb.png.172c61c7b80163bf5c5e69e66283c086.pngr03.thumb.png.da45cc7622e5c7343bdb812b1014af17.pngr06.thumb.png.782cdc7fb155cc5312638c10feb762ff.pngr09.thumb.png.b735b50c5288bbe1795109a7b1cb7ae1.png

Edited by knocker
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00z out to 168 in broad agreement with 06 run and possibly heights to Greenland and maybe a cross polar flow from the Pacific side incoming. Cold start to March if it’s transpires!

Edited by Rocheydub
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I'm truly overwhelmed ba. Well no doubt I will be!

Anyway back to the record breaking jet and associated extra-tropical cyclone tomorrow and Thursday and another sneaking into the Atlantic on the jet that has dipped more southerly on Saturday

mslp_jet_62.thumb.png.53e067ad6612cd3816593e58041613b5.pngmslp_jet_66.thumb.png.1cb2e5e0ad5df9e1ea02077bd01167a3.pngmslp_jet_71.thumb.png.11777380344daa93f4f975ee8c84e2c7.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Looking at the Gfs 12z operational it's a prolonged predominantly settled / anticyclonic outlook extending into early march,  daily temperatures above / well above average for most of the run but returning closer to average early next month..also becoming a bit more unsettled with atlantic frontal systems eventually making inroads but slowing down and disrupting due to a large blocking high further east. 

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The GEFS don't look great for cold at face value, but if you look right at the very very end they are a  stonker, a decent cluster cold enough for snow.

image.thumb.png.eb1e632ad1bfb36c30587b079a01bf0f.png

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High pressure moving back west over the next few days so after the blip over the next day or so things will settle down for the weekend and becoming increasingly warmer with temps for some in the high teens

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.bb5d0da490e7f7faf167b07aac995a2d.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.08bb574aac8f97f4adb61d3af54a8c4c.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.e3f656dc7ff2e882447d546045ed6faf.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.898e5131a5aa7afd1a2a305c55a2a908.png

 

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Decent shot of cold air from the NW later on in the run from the GFSP, not to shabby set of ensembles, with quite a lot of dip in the latter stages. Basically I've seen better, but compared to the current, big improvement. 👍

gfs-1-372.png

graphe3_1000_241_81___.gif

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Temps heading downwards as we enter March,a familiar tale of recent years,continuing this year too.

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Scatter on the Reykjavik ensembles says it all, total bedlam. To be honest unless it’s similar depth of cold to last year I’m really not overly interested in a cold spell, down here(South coast) March can deliver snow but not long lasting snow that I desire.

B1A95DB7-1257-4D4B-B0EF-D6476E5CE45B.png

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The new GFS release scheduled for March 20th might be delayed as it has a “cold bias”

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/?mbid=social_twitter_onsiteshare

interesting article it certainly seemed to perform badly on face value since the new year ...

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22 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Decent shot of cold air from the NW later on in the run from the GFSP, not to shabby set of ensembles, with quite a lot of dip in the latter stages. Basically I've seen better, but compared to the current, big improvement. 👍

gfs-1-372.png

graphe3_1000_241_81___.gif

oo, no thanks, think I'm in the Spring camp now, not wet fart NW'lies that give rain showers at 5 degrees

if I lived 200m or so oop norf, then bugger Spring, bring on the PM shots

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29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Decent shot of cold air from the NW later on in the run from the GFSP, not to shabby set of ensembles, with quite a lot of dip in the latter stages. Basically I've seen better, but compared to the current, big improvement. 👍

gfs-1-372.png

graphe3_1000_241_81___.gif

After what I have just read I will not be taking to much notice of the cold shots the GFSP 

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Increasing potential for colder conditions with a chance of snow towards the end of the GEFS 12z👍

snow_360_ps_slp.png

850tempuk_360_ps_slp.png

snow_384_ps_slp.png

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The new GFS release scheduled for March 20th might be delayed as it has a “cold bias”

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/?mbid=social_twitter_onsiteshare

Loved by many in here, the GFS-FV3, has been awful this Winter in modelling non-cold events. If it had been correct half the time we would be six-foot under most of mid-Winter. 

I was fearful without the old GFS, the ECM and new GFS coming up with those winter wonderland charts, it would be a nightmare getting any sense on this forum. At least we know the old GFS and we can extrapolate its nuances, and with ECM, the opposite side of the coin, we could get some clarity. But the two biggest models cold ramping would have been a monster!

Hopefully, they correct it.

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6 minutes ago, fromey said:

After what I have just read I will not be taking to much notice of the cold shots the GFSP 

Duely noted, some teething issues by the sound of it, but does have its positives also, looks like focusing more on its older brother and the European models till things get sorted! 

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I suppose a 'cold bias' might explain why so many of the FI 'cold shots' ended up damp squibs?

I'm hoping this current FI 'return to colder' will be gone by the end of the weekend and a less cold solution begins to show up as we head into the 5 days out time frame?

Either The Atlantic will neuter the cold or the cold lobe will move ever north with each run leaving it skirting N.I and the NW of Scotland?

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19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Duely noted, some teething issues by the sound of it, but does have its positives also, looks like focusing more on its older brother and the European models till things get sorted! 

I’m sure it will get sorted, thankfully we are coming to end of winter so plenty of time for them to work on it.

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Only 12 hours between runs, but at least a 1000 miles apart!! Unreal! 🤔

ECM0-240.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

ECU0-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Only 12 hours between runs, but at least a 1000 miles apart!! Unreal! 🤔

ECM0-240.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

ECU0-240.gif

Unsurprising really the 00z was a clear cold outlier

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No signs of anything cold on the ECM op tonight, in fact quite the opposite- well above average right the way through! Quite a lot of straw-clutching tonight from those hoping for a colder spell. Then again I would probably be the same with regard to warmth in late August if I knew that my chances were almost over! 

Hard to remember quite such a prolonged mild/warm spell as this upcoming one in February. We could potentially see 6 consecutive days above 14C here, which we didn't see in 2008 and there were only 5 consecutive days above 14C in these parts in 1998.

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