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March 2019 C.E.T. and E.W.P. forecast contests


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March confirmed as 7.8c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next week based on the 12z GFS The first graph is the forecast with max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second gr

If we consider average months within 0.5C of the 61-90 average, then either side of that above and below average, then only 3 years have had 10 or more months above average. 2014 had 11 months ab

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Summary of forecasts for March 2019 CET and EWP

12.0 _ 200 ___ Lettucing Gutted (7) ____ ___ 6.8 _ 95.0 ___ Mulzy (42) ___________ ___ 

 9.9 _ 30.0 ___ Relativistic (21) ________ ___6.8 _ ----- ___ Summer Sun (46) ______ ___

 8.9 _ 55.0 ___ Timmytour (24) ________ ___6.8 _ 64.3 __ mean 1989-2018

 8.4 _ ----- ___ Coldest Winter (1) ______ ___ 6.7 _154.0__ IRememberAtlantic252 (6*)

 8.0 _ 90.0 ___ Reef (29) _____________ ___6.7 _ 79.0 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers (60) 

 7.9 _ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (8)  ________ ___ 6.6 _106.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (45)

 7.8 _ 60.0 ___ weather-history (3) _____ ___ 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 7.8 _ 55.0 ___ Blast from the Past (13) _ ___ 6.5 _ 75.0 ___ Dr(S)No (5)

 7.8 _ 70.0 ___ The Pit (26) ___________ ___ 6.5 _ 78.0 ___ Bobd29 (31)

 7.7 _ 66.0 ___ Ed Stone (16) _________ ___ 6.5 _ 81.0 ___ Norrance (33)

 7.7 _ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (52) ____ ___ 6.5 _ ----- ___ Katrine Basso (36)

 7.6 _ ----- ___ Summer Blizzard (14) ___ ___ 6.5 _135.0 ___ Don (53) ___

 7.5 _ 87.0 ___ CheesepuffScott (10*) __ ___ 6.4 _ 62.0 ___ emmett garland (39)

 7.5 _ 97.0 ___ Stationary Front (44) ___ ___ 6.4 _ 78.0 ___ Midlands Ice Age (41)

 7.5 _ ----- ___ Evening Star (L3) ______ ___ 

 7.4 _ 50.0 ___ snow dayz (4) _________ ___6.3 _ 70.0 ___ Jeff C. (12) 

 7.4 _ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (30) ___ ___ 6.3 _110.0 ___Godber.1 (58) 

 7.3 _ 62.0 ___ Let It Snow! (2) ________ ___6.2 _ 77.4 ___Kirkcaldy Weather (17) 

 7.3 _ ----- ___ sundog (54) ___________ ___6.2 _ ----- ___ nn2013 (35)

 7.3 _ 83.0 ___ Ultima Thule (L2)

 7.2 _ 74.0 ___ stargazer (9) __________ ___6.2 _112.0 ___ daniel* (49)

 7.2 _ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (22) _______ ___6.0 _ ----- ___ snowray (19)

 7.2 _ ----- ___ Damianslaw (37) _______ ___5.9 _ ----- ___ Kentish Man (57)

 7.2 _ 77.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (48) _____ ___5.7 _ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister (51)

 7.1 _ 89.0 ___ Steve B (43) __________ ___5.6 _116.0___ weather26 (15) 

 7.0 _ 70.5 ___ Roger J Smith (18) _____ ___5.6 _ 95.0 ___ syed2878 (20)

 7.0 _ ----- ___ Leo97t (25) ___________ ___5.6 _ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (28)

 7.0 _ 78.0 ___ seaside60 (47) ________ ___5.5 _ ----- ___ Virtualsphere (11) 

 7.0 _109.0 ___ brmbrmcar (50) _______ ___5.4 _ 65.0 ___ Jonboy (32)

 7.0 _100.0 ___ J10 (55) _____________ ___5.3 _ 125.0 ___ SLEETY (23)

 7.0 _ 84.0 ___ Born From the Void (59) _ ___4.7 _ 79.0 ___ Diagonal Red Line (27)

 6.9 _ ----- ___ Man with Beard (34) also consensus CET

 6.9 _ 82.0 ___ Polar Gael (38) _______ ___

 6.9 _150.0 ___ stewfox (40) _________ ___

 6.9 _ 73.0 ___ davehsug (56) ________ ___

 6.9 _ 88.0 ___ pegg24 (L1-1) ________ ___ 

 ____________________________________________________________

* entry 6 later added EWP only, at entry position 49+1

* entry 10 later changed EWP only, at entry position 49+2

_____________________________________________________________

EWP forecasts in order

200.0 LG, 154.0 IRA252, 150.0 stew, 135.0 Don, 125.0 SLE, 116.0 wx26112.0 dan*, 110.0 Godb, 109.0 brm,

106.0 Feb91, 100.0 J10, 97.0 SF, 95.0 syed, Mulzy, 90.0 Reef, 89.0 SteveB, 88.0 Pegg, 87.0 CPScott, 84.0 BFTV,

 83.0 UT, 82.0 PG, 81.0 Norr, 79.0 DRLine, TWS, con .. 78.0 Bobd, MIA, sea60, 77.4 Kirkwx, 77.0 DS, 75.0 Dr(S)No,

 74.0 star, 73.0 dave70.5 RJS, 70.0 JeffC, The Pit,  66.0 EdS65.0 jon, 62.0 LIS!, emg, 60.0 wx-hist,

55.0 BFTP, tim, 50.0 sdayz, 30.0 Rel 

______________________________________________________________

63 CET forecasts, consensus 6.9

43 EWP forecasts, consensus 79.0 mm. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2018 extremes

 

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ________ CET date, cum ___ Running CET extreme values

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.7 (1878.) ... ... -3.8 (2018.)
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878,1999).-3.0 (2018.) 
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.1 (1965)
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.1 (1859) ... ... -1.9 (1965)
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1909)

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.7 (1845)
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931).-1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945).-0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)

 

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879,1901) ...... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)
27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ...  +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998).-0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
__ ___ ^^ record was 13.4 in 1920
31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**

________________________________________________________________________

** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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8.7 to the 2nd

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.7 to the 2nd

Current low this month 7.9 to the 1st

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