Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
chionomaniac

Tour 3 2019

Recommended Posts

Just booked days inn through booking .com. Pd just under £64 and got a twin room, so if anyone needs to share at last minute then that is fine. I arrive with Becca and Nick L on same United flight on the 27th. For the newbies there is a fb tour 3 chat group that Paul has set up on fb. If you want to be added before you arrive then pm Paul S with your fb details and I am sure that he will add you. Just can’t wait.

For those more technically minded and looking into FI for the start of our tour, it looks like GEFS  500hPa anomaly charts have one trough exiting the east coast of the US whilst another moves in from the west coast. Could be worse though taken with the salt it deserves..

EA60691C-FA54-4DBF-AC1C-80F69BD9161D.thumb.png.3bc5fb262335cc35b339d1d67899aba5.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have sent friend Requests to Camilla, Andrew and Vicky and as soon as they are approved will add you into the Tour 3 Facebook Chat Thread

Not long now Guys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 14/05/2019 at 21:31, VickyD said:

Hello! I am on this tour, very excited! I land on the 27th too and I am in the Baymont, which I can see close to the Days Inn, really looking forward to meeting you all! And mother natures magic of course! 😀

Ah I'm in the Baymont too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'm on the 1440 BA flight direct to Denver on the 27th, if anyone else is on it give us a shout. Just hope BA are on time given their track record over recent years. Look forward to seeing ya'all out there on the 27/28th, won't take the models too seriously this far out, but day 10 of 00z EC looks good for following days, with trough out west and decent strong 500mb flow over central Plains

ECMOPNA00_240_1.thumb.png.b8314aaa28796cfbca17200e5608cbf9.png

 

Edited by Nick F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I'm on the 1440 BA flight direct to Denver on the 27th, if anyone else is on it give us a shout. Just hope BA are on time given their track record over recent years. Look forward to seeing ya'all out there on the 27/28th, won't take the models too seriously this far out, but day 10 of 00z EC looks good for following days, with trough out west and decent strong 500mb flow over central Plains

ECMOPNA00_240_1.thumb.png.b8314aaa28796cfbca17200e5608cbf9.png

 

See you out there Nick. I'm starting to jkeep a sneaky peak at the models too. Hopefully we get a reload and repeat of the upcoming pattern.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Nick F said:

I'm on the 1440 BA flight direct to Denver on the 27th, if anyone else is on it give us a shout. Just hope BA are on time given their track record over recent years. Look forward to seeing ya'all out there on the 27/28th, won't take the models too seriously this far out, but day 10 of 00z EC looks good for following days, with trough out west and decent strong 500mb flow over central Plains

ECMOPNA00_240_1.thumb.png.b8314aaa28796cfbca17200e5608cbf9.png

 

Hi Nick, I'm on this flight too. 🙂 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, VickyD said:

Hi Nick, I'm on this flight too. 🙂 

Cool, will let you and any others on this flight know when arrived at the airport or other side of security on here or the facebook Tour 3 chat thread. Guess will arrive around 11.30am then grab a bite to eat for lunch once through security. I will be one of drivers on the tour, will be the 7th time I've been to the US chasing this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early signs are giving me cautious optimism.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember 2011 and will take nothing for granted #deathridge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early week beg 27th May Mon-Thurs looking tasty still. Upper profiles push a 300mb 110kt jet across the central plains above more than sufficient low level moisture multi-day.

Still a long way out though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For T3 GFS and ECM still trending Mon 27th -Thurs 30th May as potentially active days with increasing signs of a closed low centred far SW NE Tues/Weds.

Possible scouring of moisture thereafter but again that’s a long way off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nsrobins said:

For T3 GFS and ECM still trending Mon 27th -Thurs 30th May as potentially active days with increasing signs of a closed low centred far SW NE Tues/Weds.

Possible scouring of moisture thereafter but again that’s a long way off.

We may have to hit the ground running on tour 3. Hopefully be able to get a bonus chase in on Tuesday if possible with most of the guests arrived on the Monday. Denver not too badly situated

usah500slp.png

usah500slp.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will be coming into Denver on the 27th. Not gonna make you guys wait until after 6 on change over day like last year especially if conditions are looking favourable haha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First official day on EC is looking tasty. Potent southwesterly jet, with spreads of 77/72 up into Kansas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tues 28th could be high end as the trend continues for a 100kn+ 300mb jet streak overtopping 70+ moisture advection into N OK/ S KS. I’d like surface winds to be more SE but it’s mesoscale stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, nsrobins said:

Tues 28th could be high end as the trend continues for a 100kn+ 300mb jet streak overtopping 70+ moisture advection into N OK/ S KS. I’d like surface winds to be more SE but it’s mesoscale stuff.

Sadly, any chase for us that day will have to be local to Denver. 

Quite significant differences in the jet profile between EC and GFS for the first half of the tour.

Edited by Nick L

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sadly, any chase for us that day will have to be local to Denver. 

Quite significant differences in the jet profile between EC and GFS for the first half of the tour.

I concur, but GFS has done well with upper vectors this season. Also note Weds risk E KS/Misery area 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a decent start is becoming increasingly likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tour 3 model update. 

The only ‘more relaxed’ days in the 27th May - 4th June period look like Thurs and Fri next week. Multi day risk with a few moderate risks likely especially Tues 27th and again next weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...