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Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards


damianslaw

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
22 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

good or bad for us?

Bad mate. I dont think well see any snow from that area of precipitation. I think the best chance of any snow will be tomorrow night but we still dont have agreement on that different models have the wrap around at different exit points north or south

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

At the moment I think it's a case of now casting since a small shift in the low pressure system will make all the difference.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its incredibly excited.

I dont think people fully grasp what we are staring down.

We are looking at another 63 or 47 if things unravel!

Steady on with the ramping 

I've seen you say you're more of a long ranger, so how do you see this next month panning out for the Yorkshire region? Are we looking north, north east or east? I don't think we'll get anything in the next few days so it'd be good to know what we should be looking out for and when (with regards to snow)

Obviously not expecting it to be nailed on, just a prediction, so no pressure. You can claim the credit if right though 

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

I was expecting that little feature tomorrow night to dissapear but its still showing on gfs 18z, certainly something to keep an eye on. Early indications suggest inland and probably 150m+ for snow.

GFSOPUK18_27_53.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull,East Yorkshire
  • Location: Hull,East Yorkshire
42 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This period oglf snow showing again but later into the night.

Starting at 5am tuesday morning.

Notice the marginality on the coasts though as mentioned earlier

Screenshot_20201227-210950_Samsung Internet.jpg

Always stuck in a hole. Story of my life lol 

Edited by Tinker Bell
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
13 minutes ago, smhouston said:

Steady on with the ramping 

I've seen you say you're more of a long ranger, so how do you see this next month panning out for the Yorkshire region? Are we looking north, north east or east? I don't think we'll get anything in the next few days so it'd be good to know what we should be looking out for and when (with regards to snow)

Obviously not expecting it to be nailed on, just a prediction, so no pressure. You can claim the credit if right though 

Well continue to cool very marginally with potential for small near time disturbamces until new years eve with each attempt a little less marginal.

Well stay on the right side of the jet until betweem the 4th and 6th of January when the next rise of AAM will see us get close to charts shown on the 12z. Imitially heights will be near scandi from this time bringing in the risk of easterly winds and snow showerd depending on upper air temperatures (these do matter in a convective set up off the north sea due to above average sst's)

The high pressure will stay high over scandi while retrogressing and building first into iceland then into Greenland where there is am expected ssw which is imcreasingly looking likely as a split sometime on or just after the second week in january.

Heieghts then look to intensify further into Greenland and iceland as we get a big injection of very cold air into russia and scandinavia as the split looks to leave the biggest lobe im this location currently.

As easterly reversed winds kick in this when the exceptionally cold air arrives from the east in a long fetched easterly.

Looking at the strength of the ssw id expect this to take us into february ans beyond

I cant stress how severe January looks to potentially be and this forecast from the first week in december is now backed up by chio and catacol along with some exceptional professiomal forecasters who work for the metoffice and the US met.

Im extremeley confident about thie scenario.

I havnt swayed once and have called each week correct since the start of December

Its all panning out perfectly

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I was expecting that little feature tomorrow night to dissapear but its still showing on gfs 18z, certainly something to keep an eye on. Early indications suggest inland and probably 150m+ for snow.

GFSOPUK18_27_53.png

Yeah that shows just over the pennines and high ground

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah that shows just over the pennines and high ground

Yeah think with no real change in uppers (around -3) and the wind coming off the sea, albeit different side I can't envisage the temperature been much different than today. Obviously if it was heavy enough that could bring down the temperature and snowline down locally.. As always the case when we get colder uppers later in the weak precipitation on current charts seems to be reduced..

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It still looks very marginal but time for this to firm up to lower levels

Haven't you been to bed from yesterday yet??

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah think with no real change in uppers (around -3) and the wind coming off the sea, albeit different side I can't envisage the temperature been much different today. Obviously if it was heavy enough that could bring down the temperature and snowline down locally.. As always the case when we get colder uppers later in the weak precipitation on current charts seems to be reduced..

Sods law mate hahah i would not be ruling out snow between thursday and saturday however i have seen a run with a diving low pressure on new years eve that could bring a decent covering

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Sods law mate hahah i would not be ruling out snow between thursday and saturday however i have seen a run with a diving low pressure on new years eve that could bring a decent covering

That would be nice :). Certainly can't rule anything out, now casting is king.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

That would be nice :). Certainly can't rule anything out, now casting is king.

Thats the key message really.

Rule nothing out.

At least temperatures are moving in the right direction day by day so its just a matter of time in my eyes

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