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North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

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30 minutes ago, Linda said:

Any thoughts on next weeks potential snow  event for our region?

Unfortunately, it’s way too far out at this stage to be able to pin point whether the cold air will even arrive, let alone any potential wintry PPN.

Looking at the 06Z that’s currently rolling out, it looks like it may start as a northerly, which is generally poor for here unless you get a front embedded in the flow.. the wind does turn NW for a time, so any showers will be wintry, but with uppers of just -5/-6C, you’d want some elevation. 
 

all subject to change of course, but looking at that and from my own point of view, looks sleety/hail. Which I don’t mind. We get battered by hailstorms from a NW’erly here in Runcorn. I love it!

 

still plenty of time for it to change anyway, might not even get the northerly. 

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12 hours ago, Linda said:

Any thoughts on next weeks potential snow  event for our region?

I wouldn't get too excited. I'm not a huge fan of northerlys given snow wise 99% of our region is usually too sheltered to benefit from them. There's too much land to our north. Great for severe penetrating frost's & clear sunny skies though. The only times northerlys have delivered is usually when imbedded troughs (rare) are involved & Polar lows (rarer still). Northerlys are better for the likes of northern facing areas like northern Scotland, north Wales, Norfolk & even Devon/Cornwall. Here in the east of our region I much prefer a good snowy easterly like Feb & March 2018. 

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21 hours ago, Linda said:

Any thoughts on next weeks potential snow  event for our region?

One thing I've learnt over the years dispite what the GFS and ECM show if the UKMO says no then usually the UKMO is correct learnt that a couple of years back with the failed Easterly this forum went into meltdown and not in a good way when the GFS and ECM backed off.as for next week my guess would be snow on high ground in the north with perhaps Wintry showers further south.

C.S

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Yet another ground frost this morning, think that's 4 in a row...the milder westerly yet to influence the air temps yet, but it's on it's way, with a bit of unwelcome rain no doubt

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4 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Blizzard alert Cumbria 11-12-19

Certainly expecting the fells to see quite a hefty dollop of snow next week, snowline could yo-yo somewhat, but evaporative cooling will take hold and some low level wet stuff might settle for a time.. First proper snows of the season,  little later than usual, normally see a good dose by end of November, only had a slight cover on highest ground so far.

A word on today - thoroughly miserable dark day before christmas, went dark about half 3, incessant rain.. reminiscent of so many days before christmas, this really can be a very miserable period weatherwise with the low light levels, thanks goodness we had a few lovely bright sunny crisp days end of last week. 

 

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9 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Decided to change my Profile Picture to reflect Winter 2019-2020😄

C.S

I'm still going for that Greenland High, looking good 🤣

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3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

I'm still going for that Greenland High, looking good 🤣

My expectations are very low December looks like very brief PM shots who knows for January GP posts don't fill me with excitement.

C.S

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18 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

My expectations are very low December looks like very brief PM shots who knows for January GP posts don't fill me with excitement.

C.S

I would keep an open mind on how things might pan out - quite expected though that people's expectations for cold and wintry weather might be low at present given the current model output, and how the last 6 winters have in the main panned out, but things do change, and the unexpected can turn up out of the blue such is the dynamics of our weather.

We've been drawn short straws since winter 12/13 it has to be said, barely any sustained wintry weather just the shot of cold at end Feb 2018 to speak of, and doses in early Dec 2017, third week Jan 2018, second half of Jan 2015/early Feb 2015 was quite wintry, but that's about it. Winter 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and last year were shockingly woeful on the wintry note, preety much devoid, what a flip from the 08/09- 12/13 period, we are due a cold one soon, next winter already looking like it might have the right ingredients....

Back to today, oh dear the grey is back, the drizzle, the murk, no views, the drab - a contrast to last weekend which was wonderfully dry clear cold and frosty. Really detest westerly/south westerly airstreams. It will be a quick descent into darkness this afternoon. 

 

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 Wet wet and windy and and hail all night pounding my windows still very windy now 

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On 06/12/2019 at 17:17, cheshire snow said:

My expectations are very low December looks like very brief PM shots who knows for January GP posts don't fill me with excitement.

C.S

I'm still waiting for the "torpedo" he alluded to a few years ago which never arrived. He's a good forecaster but obviously not infallible. I don't think anyone can, with great accuracy, forecast weeks in advance. Of course if one was to say it's going to be a mild Winter you won't go far wrong. It's our default climate. A bit like saying it's going to be cold in Moscow. You won't usually be wrong.

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12 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I'm still waiting for the "torpedo" he alluded to a few years ago which never arrived. He's a good forecaster but obviously not infallible. I don't think anyone can, with great accuracy, forecast weeks in advance. Of course if one was to say it's going to be a mild Winter you won't go far wrong. It's our default climate. A bit like saying it's going to be cold in Moscow. You won't usually be wrong.

Ironically I was going to post something similar in the Mod thread but then had second thoughts in fear of been slapped and punched by the cold and snow lovers brigade 🤐

C.S

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7 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Ironically I was going to post something similar in the Mod thread but then had second thoughts in fear of been slapped and punched by the cold and snow lovers brigade 🤐

C.S

Haha don't blame you. It's like trying to dodge a field full of mines in there. One step wrong & the vultures swoop down to have a pick. I rarely post in there as well because of it.

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Hope it snows this year or beginning of next I just want to build a snowman 😫

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image.thumb.png.2f3ae203b773f044c7e17f05e4bc892f.png

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be one of those horrible wet days when there's bucket load of puddles everywhere. 
People getting soaked. 
Having to smoke my ciggies half-in-half-out the front door, much to my other half's annoyance. 

🤣

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