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damianslaw

North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

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Superb late autumn crisp day here, cloudless skies, frost stayed in the shade, no wind - excellent stuff. Temperature has dropped a stone this evening, coldest night of the season ahead.

Love these sort of days - better still in the depths of winter, when temps struggle to get above freezing and the frost stays on the ground looking like snow.

Tomorrow will be a cold day with frost only slowly lifting, might not lift at all, then its back to the milder damp conditions again.

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BBrrr -2.6c here with some patchy freezing fog to add to the mix.

C.S

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Was expecting the first airfrost of the year tonight but it's stubbornly holding above 0C. In fact in the garden in the centre of town it was 3C. I think this is due to altitude.. Picture below taken at 11pm shows there's no frost. 

 

IMG_20191118_215150-01.jpeg

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It was around zero at 7pm here  so unless we get some clouds passing by we should reach -3 by morning.

Beautiful fresh air to kill off any wasps around.

Such a shame it might be weeks until the next.

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7 hours ago, SP1986 said:

Was expecting the first airfrost of the year tonight but it's stubbornly holding above 0C. In fact in the garden in the centre of town it was 3C. I think this is due to altitude.. Picture below taken at 11pm shows there's no frost. 

 

IMG_20191118_215150-01.jpeg

A good frost here this morn 👍 

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22 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Coldest night of Autumn so far overnight low of -1.4c which has led to a beautiful cloudless start in South Cheshire and nice frosty scenes.

@Day 10 wish I shared your thoughts for December I think it's going to be a mild December with yet more rain and flooding problems January who knows but I think this will be the month that winter arrives 

C.S

I'm thinking more second half of December 👍 

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'potent' northerly keeps showing up on some models for end of November but will probably be toned down to a 'glancing blow' by the time we reach that point, if anything at all.  Next week a little milder and damper for a time but hopefully not the rainfall amounts we've had through the early part of November.

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Interesting 12z runs from the models.. certainly an eye opener.. could winter be coming in with a bang or will it all collapse within the next 48 hours lol 

once bitten, twice shy. 

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Quite a cold feeling day, with cloud cover after a chilly though not frosty start - nothing really to stir the airflow. Another chilly night ahead, patchy frost possible, and another similar feeling day tomorrow. 

 

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Despite all the rain and unsettled weather, it is remarkable how quiet this autumn has been. The word "gale" has been conspicuous by its absence.

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12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Despite all the rain and unsettled weather, it is remarkable how quiet this autumn has been. The word "gale" has been conspicuous by its absence.

Yes been a lack of wind really this Autumn usually I love to watch it when it’s windy as it blows the leaves off lovely to watch

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If anything the strongest gusts this autumn feel like they've come from the east/south east...low and  behold we have another setup this evening into tomorrow as the winds come from the east ahead of the weather front moving up from the south.

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I often find late November an exceptionally miserable time weather wise overall, sometimes we can strike lucky with a cold arctic blast or cold frosty conditions overhead even a bit of snow, but the most likely scene is a damp drab grey dank one, often with bouts of wind and rain. The outlook for the next few days at least (signs by next Thursday things will change to something brighter and colder), is of this ilk..

Mmm just have to grin and bear it. No denying this is a preety miserable time of the year.

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Just now, damianslaw said:

I often find late November an exceptionally miserable time weather wise overall, sometimes we can strike lucky with a cold arctic blast or cold frosty conditions overhead even a bit of snow, but the most likely scene is a damp drab grey dank one, often with bouts of wind and rain. The outlook for the next few days at least (signs by next Thursday things will change to something brighter and colder), is of this ilk..

Mmm just have to grin and bear it. No denying this is a preety miserable time of the year, weather for the uninspired..

 

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Looks like a Cold snap developing by the weekend which will be good news hopefully time to dry out a bit more.For this part of the region a cold snap like the one predicted for the weekend usually means cold but sunny by day followed by overnight frost.there is a chance as the milder air comes in there could be a brief transient sleet or snow event but that's for later for now looking forward to some crisp sunny days.

C.S

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Grey, dank , dark day but that's most of the crimbo shopping sorted and I'm still going for that Greenland High (a proper one, not the current weak affair we have) sometime in December... As ever we shall see...

Edited by Day 10

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Yes short term looking like a mild week coming up (at least compared with what we've had this month) temps into double figures likely especially early this week. Then signs of it turning a bit colder again from around Friday. How cold for how long is the question. And in that sense it's probably best to keep feet on the ground & stick to the reliable time frame. I am however quietly confident of at least one notable cold spell this Winter. Stratospherically speaking & looking at unusual pressure patterns I think conditions are ripe for it.

I don't think people should take too much notice of the LRF's though as they cannot even forecast this Autumn right which was supposed to have been milder than average. It certainly hasn't been. They also got last Winter's conditions wrong as well. That's not to say they should be completely discounted but merely should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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I wonder how long it will be until Oldham Council's trusty good old snow warning signs will get a run for their money again? Some of them are looking a tad tired, with a few still their 1960s original design but they didn't have to work too hard last Winter. Will it be different this time with an early shift next weekend perhaps?!

image.png.7dd621f503fdd35104ec9777eecadb2f.png

image.thumb.png.0a051a25a8f125990ff3a4a3951fbb54.pngScreenshot_8.thumb.png.e93691be5d6cf40be740183880427ab5.png

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27 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I wonder how long it will be until Oldham Council's trusty good old snow warning signs will get a run for their money again? Some of them are looking a tad tired, with a few still their 1960s original design but they didn't have to work too hard last Winter. Will it be different this time with an early shift next weekend perhaps?!

image.png.7dd621f503fdd35104ec9777eecadb2f.png

image.thumb.png.0a051a25a8f125990ff3a4a3951fbb54.pngScreenshot_8.thumb.png.e93691be5d6cf40be740183880427ab5.png

Ah yes Oldham's obligatory snow signs with the big bold capitals "SNOW". The first one is opposite Texaco on Oldham Rd. The amount of times I passed that in all weather's on the way home from work in Manchester before I retired. Probably thousands of times.

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I like this one in Uppermill which simply says 'STOP' - someone in the unknown would be thinking.. stop for what!?

image.thumb.png.7d0c2f872ef535ba3ecae45cabf277d4.png

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Once today's rain has cleared Temperatures will start to drop a hard frost forecast overnight then four or five days of sparkling winter Sunshine.Temperatures struggling by day only reaching 4 or 5c followed by harsh overnight frost.

Bring it on cannot wait to catch a break from all this rain.

C.S

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20 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Once today's rain has cleared Temperatures will start to drop a hard frost forecast overnight then four or five days of sparkling winter Sunshine.Temperatures struggling by day only reaching 4 or 5c followed by harsh overnight frost.

Bring it on cannot wait to catch a break from all this rain.

C.S

Just read the meto text and they are suggesting -4 overnight which does not tally with GFS/BBC Raw or meto raw itself..

Wonder how low we can go over the next 3 or 4 nights..

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Well if it ain't going to be snow then I will take this beautiful crisp morning and hard overnight frosts 

C.S

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