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damianslaw

North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They did have a warning out for now for the whole of the region for thunder on the met office but they have took it off.

This was just to alter the start time. Warning still there, but starts at midnight.

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1 minute ago, Dexter said:

This was just to alter the start time. Warning still there, but starts at midnight.

Right, i thought i saw a little mini one just for NW in addition to the monday one - thanks though.

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I'm not expecting much to avoid disappointment, but from all the information I've se

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Right, i thought i saw a little mini one just for NW in addition to the monday one - thanks though.

No worries. Yes, you are right about the separate warning, but I assumed the warning for tonight was just merged into the one for tomorrow given the delayed start so just one single warning now. No guarantees of course. However, from all the information I've seen today, looks like the ingredients are there for elevated storms late evening through to the early hours. We will see.

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1 minute ago, Dexter said:

I'm not expecting much to avoid disappointment, but from all the information I've se

No worries. Yes, you are right about the separate warning, but I assumed the warning for tonight was just merged into the one for tomorrow given the delayed start so just one single warning now. No guarantees of course. However, from all the information I've seen today, looks like the ingredients are there for elevated storms late evening through to the early hours. We will see.

I am gutted enough that i am going to have to endure at least 7 days of hideous heat but will be seething if there ends up being no rewards in the form of severe weather.

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I am gutted enough that i am going to have to endure at least 7 days of hideous heat but will be seething if there ends up being no rewards in the form of severe weather.

Looks warm wed and then very warm by fri/sat- back to average , i'm thinking city centre manchester will hit 29 saturday 🙂

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks warm wed and then very warm by fri/sat- back to average , i'm thinking city centre manchester will hit 29 saturday 🙂

I wish everyone else luck in in what they want but i wished it could just stay 29 degrees here all the year around - Fahrenheit!!

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Odd situation at the moment, rain radar shows us under precipitation, yet not a drop of rain so far.. earlier on precipitation just passed us to the west.. we do have dark overcast skies but nothing happening..

Looking ahead, proper warmth on the way circa mid 20s, such temps most likely Thurs-Saturday as we see more of an easterly flow. Nothing exceptional, but will feel very good all the same given we haven't had any sustained warmth so far this year.

This time last year we were beginning a very lengthy spell of significant warmth, a run of maxima in the high 20's nudging into the low 30s for some in the NW.

Edited by damianslaw

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The area of rain is now starting to move away from my area, so  it looks like my area will not see any activity tonight unfortunately. 

At the risk of sounding overly pessimistic , I have no expectation for any storms here now.

I will however enjoy the pleasant warm weather while it lasts.

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Certainly don't think we'll see any all time temperature records broken in our region but the one significant thing is the upper air temps - I can't recall a time when the 20C isotherm got this far north. I know it got close in August 2003 & 1st July 2015 but surely if this ECM is on the money it's like the January 1987 equivalent? 

ECM0-144.thumb.gif.f9153d7b7a70edfd0dbf3bfa31a2d5ab.gifarchives-1987-1-12-0-1.thumb.png.9042161bf2175494cc834c900dff1162.png

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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Netweather forecast showing 63% chance of a Thunderstorm at 3am

Also 85% chance for Friday evening

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Pretty sure the band coming up from the south will be rain only today. I can't see thunderstorms later. This mist and murk looks like it will hang around too today. 

Currently cool but very humid.

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We were just too far South last night. However, sun is bursting through here now and feels really muggy. Feels ripe for development of storms today.

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22 minutes ago, Dexter said:

We were just too far South last night. However, sun is bursting through here now and feels really muggy. Feels ripe for development of storms today.

Looks like the storms will miss here tonight BBC this morning showing the East Midlands in the fireing line with the storms then heading NE into the north sea.

C.S

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BBC forecasts are dire since they ditched the Met Office. Watch the video forecast on the Met website - it's more accurate.

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6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Looks like the storms will miss here tonight BBC this morning showing the East Midlands in the fireing line with the storms then heading NE into the north sea.

C.S

Yeah, not expecting anything significant tonight, but may provide a good light show at least. I think daytime today provides our strongest chance of a direct hit.

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A couple of cells currently over Staffordshire are moving towards Manchester. They don't look like having enough strength at the moment 

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Sferics showing up on the other side of the Pennines now  Don't fancy this region's chances now for the rest of the week at least on a wide scale and I'm not sure there will be anything from any breakdown as the continental airmass is pushed away by the Atlantic airmass.

If it goes the way of ECM, nothing during early July neither. Coming up to 4 years since the last thunderstorm during the meteorological summer  for my area (1st July 2015)

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37 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Sferics showing up on the other side of the Pennines now  Don't fancy this region's chances now for the rest of the week at least on a wide scale and I'm not sure there will be anything from any breakdown as the continental airmass is pushed away by the Atlantic airmass.

If it goes the way of ECM, nothing during early July neither. Coming up to 4 years since the last thunderstorm during the meteorological summer  for my area (1st July 2015)

It does rather feel like the storm potential has drained away from here for this week now, which was looking good 2-3 days ago. I was hopeful for today this morning. We have had a couple of moderate to heavy showers an hour or so ago but no lightning/thunder. I can see us getting copious amounts of rain overnight, but can't see any storms this far West. Metoffice seem to conclude this based on the warnings. 

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Fiddlers Ferry power station closes in March. Not sure if it had any impact on local weather but one thing is sure, we won't see that familiar steam plume on a cold clear autumn/winter spring morning soon. You could see that plume for miles. 

Edited by Weather-history

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Interesting that the metoffice text forecast for the West Mids mentions thunderstorms overnight. Our precipitation will be moving up from that region, but no mention of thunder for the Northwest, just heavy rain. Does this mean the electrical activity is expected to die off once the rain reaches our region? Just seems a bit odd. Metoffice video forecast shows some very intense returns reaching the region. 

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19 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Interesting that the metoffice text forecast for the West Mids mentions thunderstorms overnight. Our precipitation will be moving up from that region, but no mention of thunder for the Northwest, just heavy rain. Does this mean the electrical activity is expected to die off once the rain reaches our region? Just seems a bit odd. Metoffice video forecast shows some very intense returns reaching the region. 

In my experience that's usually what happens... It dies off.

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Some lightning strikes just south of Chester area now on the North Wales/English border, but quite slow moving and localised.  Not heard a dicky rumble for over 12 months now, and certainly not seen a decent CG Lightning show for well... years and years.  Getting as rare as deep puff powder snow (not slush).

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