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North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards


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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Nice to hear. Looks like a few more good days to come as well.  Nice part of the world when the sun shineS !

C

You are in a spectacular part of the world, seen your pics on all things Austria thread.  By contrast, what is your weather like today?  What are the temps like at the lowest altitudes?  It's still glorious here today, garden thermometer now at 22°.

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Some pictures from new Brighton around high tide this afternoon

Up Malham Moor earlier today.

Buxton.

Posted Images

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

You are in a spectacular part of the world, seen your pics on all things Austria thread.  By contrast, what is your weather like today?  What are the temps like at the lowest altitudes?  It's still glorious here today, garden thermometer now at 22°.

Yes, love the mountains and the Central European climate that usually produces cold winter and warm summers. Last winter was mild and snowless at lower levels but we still managed reasonable snow cover at 1500m. The spring has been mixed  but not as sunny or warm as the UK and France. We in the Eastern Alps have been on the cool side of the High Cell for the most part with airmass producing cloud and moisture, mostly originated from the North Sea or Baltic region. Village temp today 6c with freezing level at around 2300m with fresh snow cover at that height. Know the climate in NW England is far from continental as I lived in Cheshire and Skipton for quite a number of years but  great when the sun shines and the wind comes off the land.

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted (edited)

Great day today & after tomorrow looks like perfect late Spring/Summer weather. Low 20s sunshine. Nice comfortable conditions. 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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A much better day today, still breezy which has taken the edge off things, despite lots of sunshine. Maximum temp 17 degrees.

Tomorrow looks a rather cloudy affair, perhaps a bit of light drizzle first thing.

Rest of the week looking very good, high teens/low 20s sunny, light winds, and humidity levels low- perfect late May weather, best time of the year in my book.

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Monday was nice, mostly sunny and highs of around 19 or 20°. Tuesday was okay, cool and cloudy to start off with but cloud breaking by mid/late afternoon and by early evening was very sunny, if a little on the cool side with temp around 16° or so. 

 

This morning, clear blue sky, unbroken sunshine, a gentle breeze, forecast high 19°/20° according to BBC weather app.

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A "very high" UV level of 8 on Saturday. Must be quite rare in our region? I know places like Penzance in Cornwall often get that high given how far south they are. But I've noticed that we've had higher than normal UV for most of this Spring even here in the NW. Maybe a lack of airplanes? 

Screenshot_20200527-114928-798.thumb.png.cb1b16a11c663e414cd4610f4a7f749c.png

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28 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Looks like a nice 1-2 weeks weather ahead, even St Bees is forecast for highs of 19° and sunny. ☀️

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Looking fantastic for the week ahead although some in the MOD already looking for the breakdown Really?? of course this spell will break down eventually but lets enjoy it whilst we can.

Really do think the MOD Thread should be split again into the 7 day outlook and then the day 8-16 day who think a day 12 chart will verify (that includes the winter season as well)  

C.S

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22 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Looking fantastic for the week ahead although some in the MOD already looking for the breakdown Really?? of course this spell will break down eventually but lets enjoy it whilst we can.

Really do think the MOD Thread should be split again into the 7 day outlook and then the day 8-16 day who think a day 12 chart will verify (that includes the winter season as well)  

C.S

People will always try to "cherry pick" the models for their favourite outcome. Probably best to just leave them to it really.

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1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Looking fantastic for the week ahead although some in the MOD already looking for the breakdown Really?? of course this spell will break down eventually but lets enjoy it whilst we can.

Really do think the MOD Thread should be split again into the 7 day outlook and then the day 8-16 day who think a day 12 chart will verify (that includes the winter season as well)  

C.S

The breakdown to wet and cool conditions will come either as we move out of lockdown or a hose pipe ban is introduced and looking at reservoir levels and given at least another week of dry conditions , I can see that not being too far away.

it will be interesting to see what the rainfall totals for May end up being, probably under 10mm for parts of the region and that is on the back of an exceptionally dry April and long dry spells in March.

February’s floods seem a long time ago now.

 

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6 hours ago, iand61 said:

The breakdown to wet and cool conditions will come either as we move out of lockdown or a hose pipe ban is introduced and looking at reservoir levels and given at least another week of dry conditions , I can see that not being too far away.

it will be interesting to see what the rainfall totals for May end up being, probably under 10mm for parts of the region and that is on the back of an exceptionally dry April and long dry spells in March.

February’s floods seem a long time ago now.

 

Once again we have flipped for extreme wet to extreme dry, this has happened quite a few times though to perhaps not quite the same degree dry to wet and wet to dry, but still notable. A flip happened March 95, after a very wet period culminating in a very wet winter, we then had a very dry period, notably so in the summer, the extended dry spell lasting until Spring 97, then a flip back to very wet...

A lesser extreme flip happened in Spring 05, not long after the very wet January, a change to more blocked dry conditions lasting through until Autumn 06, then a lengthy wet period again.. becoming brokered in the winter of 08/09 a bit, but then followed a very wet November. A flip then occurred to a dry period culminating in the very dry Spring 11, thereafter a generally wet spell ensued, with a blip in March 12 which was very dry, a very wet 5 month period thereafter..

Even the very wet autumn and exceptional rains of Dec 15, were followed by a drier second half to winter with quite a bit of high pressure.

We seem to get stuck in long sustained patterns thanks to a buckled jetstream. No coincidence this is happening at a time of solar minima, just like the 95-97 period, and the 07-10 period. Periods of abnormal dry and wet.

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Once again we have flipped for extreme wet to extreme dry, this has happened quite a few times though to perhaps not quite the same degree dry to wet and wet to dry, but still notable. A flip happened March 95, after a very wet period culminating in a very wet winter, we then had a very dry period, notably so in the summer, the extended dry spell lasting until Spring 97, then a flip back to very wet...

A lesser extreme flip happened in Spring 05, not long after the very wet January, a change to more blocked dry conditions lasting through until Autumn 06, then a lengthy wet period again.. becoming brokered in the winter of 08/09 a bit, but then followed a very wet November. A flip then occurred to a dry period culminating in the very dry Spring 11, thereafter a generally wet spell ensued, with a blip in March 12 which was very dry, a very wet 5 month period thereafter..

Even the very wet autumn and exceptional rains of Dec 15, were followed by a drier second half to winter with quite a bit of high pressure.

We seem to get stuck in long sustained patterns thanks to a buckled jetstream. No coincidence this is happening at a time of solar minima, just like the 95-97 period, and the 07-10 period. Periods of abnormal dry and wet.

One that still sticks in my mind was the breakdown that followed the long hot summer of 1976.

3 months of heatwave and drought followed by one of the wettest Septembers on record certainly topped the reservoirs back up again.

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Lancashire coast already looks like top spot today for temp in England. No surprise North Wales heads the list nationwide at the moment. Looks like a great spell of weather for a few days yet to come in your part of the world. Still cold and miserable in the Austrian Alps with snow mixed in the rain presently. Looking on with envy. Enjoy whilst  it lasts !

C

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22 hours ago, iand61 said:

The breakdown to wet and cool conditions will come either as we move out of lockdown or a hose pipe ban is introduced and looking at reservoir levels and given at least another week of dry conditions , I can see that not being too far away.

it will be interesting to see what the rainfall totals for May end up being, probably under 10mm for parts of the region and that is on the back of an exceptionally dry April and long dry spells in March.

February’s floods seem a long time ago now.

 

Not sure why you say  as the end of your first sentence?

Most in northern England were above average levels only a couple of weeks ago according Yorkshire and Trent authorities?

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7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure why you say  as the end of your first sentence?

Most in northern England were above average levels only a couple of weeks ago according Yorkshire and Trent authorities?

Sorry John but in the north west region, the reservoir levels are well below average and approaching the same point where they brought in restrictions a couple of years ago.

i can’t speak for other regions although a couple of local Pennine reservoirs owned by Yorkshire Water are also getting pretty down.
 

TBH my initial statement was a little Tongue in cheek and more to do with the irony of water restrictions usually being followed by a change to wet weather but it has been exceptionally dry in this part of the country and one of the driest extended periods I can remember.

 

 

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5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Lancashire coast already looks like top spot today for temp in England. No surprise North Wales heads the list nationwide at the moment. Looks like a great spell of weather for a few days yet to come in your part of the world. Still cold and miserable in the Austrian Alps with snow mixed in the rain presently. Looking on with envy. Enjoy whilst  it lasts !

C

Your summer will come soon.  We have really been blessed the whole of May, for fine warm sunny weather, but my daughter and I have noticed areas where the ground is cracking due to lack of rain,  other parts of the UK have been even drier. Garden thermometer currently at 23°, don't know if was any higher earlier, as have been in work today.  Outlook for the weekend is looking pretty good, so we are having a BBQ, low pressure looks to be putting in an appearance next week, so things will cool down somewhat.  Unfortunately there's no sign as yet of a thundery breakdown, love a good storm me.

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@Rush2112 

Yes weekend and first part of next week is looking fantastic  a continuation  of what we have now.i wont go beyond five days but maybe a slight breakdown but temperatures still look respectable and not to much rain.

C.S

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3 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

Your summer will come soon.  We have really been blessed the whole of May, for fine warm sunny weather, but my daughter and I have noticed areas where the ground is cracking due to lack of rain,  other parts of the UK have been even drier. Garden thermometer currently at 23°, don't know if was any higher earlier, as have been in work today.  Outlook for the weekend is looking pretty good, so we are having a BBQ, low pressure looks to be putting in an appearance next week, so things will cool down somewhat.  Unfortunately there's no sign as yet of a thundery breakdown, love a good storm me.

Hello, still some days off before the change, so  a good 3 or 4 days or so. Hate cold winds at this time of year, currently 0.6c in the back garden, that's horrible with the log burner on this evening. The change may yet come from the south, that would be your best bet for something thundery and still relatively warm. Cold northerly, no good in June. Enjoy the B/Q, no chance of one here, at least the pub is now open 1

 C

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Blackpool currently warmest spot in the UK at  21.00 h with 22c, along with many other spots in the NW.

 C

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Interesting reading the above .... since the start of the covid lockdown (end march) its been notably dry here in this part of the NW.  Little or no frontal rainfall, we had a thunderstorm late March i seem to remember but as for prolonged rainfall nothing of any note since the floods in Feb. Looking at the forecast for the next 7 days there's no rain on the horizon either.  

Reservoirs - well below normal levels  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Snow free zone said:

Interesting reading the above .... since the start of the covid lockdown (end march) its been notably dry here in this part of the NW.  Little or no frontal rainfall, we had a thunderstorm late March i seem to remember but as for prolonged rainfall nothing of any note since the floods in Feb. Looking at the forecast for the next 7 days there's no rain on the horizon either.  

Reservoirs - well below normal levels  

 

 

Incredibly dry and incredibly sunny.

It certainly hasn’t been day after day of warmth up here and some some days have been decidedly coolish especially back in April and parts of early May when we had a nagging easterly wind but some decent heat has certainly arrived now and the 25c my thermometer is showing is plenty warm enough for me.

all I all though, I can’t remember a better period of spring weather.

 

Edited by iand61
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8 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Incredibly dry and incredibly sunny.

It certainly hasn’t been day after day of warmth up here and some some days have been decidedly coolish especially back in April and parts of early May when we had a nagging easterly wind but some decent heat has certainly arrived now and the 25c my thermometer is showing is plenty warm enough for me.

all I all though, I can’t remember a better period of spring weather.

 

Yes agreed.  Any kind of E in the wind direction for us here and you can more or less forget about rain.  Even in the cooler spells we managed some sun to take any chill off the temps.

Just like Damian said above, at the moment there doesnt seem to be any half way house, its either bone dry or your left wondering when the rain is going to stop ...... nothing in between. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Yes agreed.  Any kind of E in the wind direction for us here and you can more or less forget about rain.  Even in the cooler spells we managed some sun to take any chill off the temps.

Just like Damian said above, at the moment there doesnt seem to be any half way house, its either bone dry or your left wondering when the rain is going to stop ...... nothing in between. 

 

I doubt it’s a long term pattern change but maybe the British climate Is turning into something similar to that of most of the planet where seasons aren’t just a case of hot and cold but with major fluctuations between wet and dry.

I don’t know whether I’d fancy a Caribbean climate with heavy showers almost every day between June and September then pretty much dry for the rest of the year but a Southern European one of hot and dry summers followed by plenty of winter rain has its advantages.

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