North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

One to watch for Thursday - Channel LP dragging in all that moisture and cold. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Irish Sea will be a huge influence tonight. With it being such a mild winter, the SST’s are way above average. This will lead to temps and DP’s being scuppered, even to quite far inland areas I suspect. 
 

cant see any snow here tonight. 

Ssts should be near to their coldest ..

Last time i looked they were around average..

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Irish Sea will be a huge influence tonight. With it being such a mild winter, the SST’s are way above average. This will lead to temps and DP’s being scuppered, even to quite far inland areas I suspect. 
 

cant see any snow here tonight. 

Irish Sea is average. North Atlantic has been colder than average all winter and that has filtered its way to the Irish Sea.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Hailstoning.

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Irish Sea is average. North Atlantic has been colder than average all winter and that has filtered its way to the Irish Sea.

That’s interesting. Probably explains the quietness of the sea in terms of convection then 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Backtrack said:

That’s interesting. Probably explains the quietness of the sea in terms of convection then 

I think you might do ok 2nd half the night BT as winds veer more nwly..

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Irish Sea will be a huge influence tonight. With it being such a mild winter, the SST’s are way above average. This will lead to temps and DP’s being scuppered, even to quite far inland areas I suspect. 
 

cant see any snow here tonight. 

Not anymore. Two weeks ago they were 9.3°C at Crosby which was way above average but now it's at 6.1°C which is a little below average.

I agree with your last sentence unfortunately though.

[northwestsnow]

Buzzword this evening and overnight will be streamers..

For a covering of some description a streamer or two wont go amiss.

The odd shower wont cut it.

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Not anymore. Two weeks ago they were 9.3°C at Crosby which was way above average but now it's at 6.1°C which is a little below average.

I agree with your last sentence unfortunately though.

I think winds are expected to go more north west after midnight which will put you in the game..

[Chris.R]

instability fades overnight so after midnight I think showers will start to get less intense/Widespread unless we can have a trough.

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think winds are expected to go more north west after midnight which will put you in the game..

Yep Perhaps.

[itsnowjoke]

Suns out

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Buzzword this evening and overnight will be streamers..

For a covering of some description a streamer or two wont go amiss.

The odd shower wont cut it.

 

I agree about the streamers! There is a lot of activity in Ireland so that's good at least.

If only the uppers were a touch lower.

[SP1986]

It's not overly cold here today.. About average at 7C, chance of some wintriness later on.. The lack of instability towards morning may actually help as its liklely showers may feature snow instead of hail here on the coast. 

It will be quite a momentous occasion here should it actually snow as it hasn't snowed yet here this winter which is quite a stat, despite the frustration of having very little of interest. 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

29 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Hailstoning.

Better than nowt...... 

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

It's not overly cold here today.. About average at 7C, chance of some wintriness later on.. The lack of instability towards morning may actually help as its liklely showers may feature snow instead of hail here on the coast. 

It will be quite a momentous occasion here should it actually snow as it hasn't snowed yet here this winter which is quite a stat, despite the frustration of having very little of interest. 

 

True. I hadn't thought of that. Might get snow instead of graupel as you say.

2015–16 and 2016–17 had no snow here at all.

[Chris.R]

Liverpool Airport has removed the possibility (prob30) of snow showers overnight but apart from that it's the same as before.

The report was made 1 hour and 8 minutes ago, at 11:03 UTC

Forecast valid from 25 at 12 UTC to 26 at 12 UTC

Wind 10 kt from the West/Southwest

Visibility 10 km or more

Few clouds at a height of 1200 ft 
Scattered clouds at a height of 3000 ft

Temporary
from 25 at 12 UTC to 25 at 19 UTC

Visibility: 7000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft

rain showers

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 25 at 12 UTC to 25 at 19 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the West with gusts up to 30 kt

Visibility: 2000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 1500 ft, Cumulonimbus.

rain showers, snow, (heavy) showers, small hail or snow pellets

Temporary
from 25 at 19 UTC to 26 at 12 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the West/Northwest with gusts up to 30 kt

Visibility: 2000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 1500 ft, Cumulonimbus.

rain showers, snow, (heavy) showers, small hail or snow pellets

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Looking south east I can see a good covering on Kinder Scout. Looks snowless below about 350-400m...for now.

Edited February 25, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Iceaxecrampon]

Balderstone - hail  - sleety mix - dark skies - quite raw out here.

[Backtrack]

33 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Liverpool Airport has removed the possibility (prob30) of snow showers overnight but apart from that it's the same as before.

The report was made 1 hour and 8 minutes ago, at 11:03 UTC

Forecast valid from 25 at 12 UTC to 26 at 12 UTC

Wind 10 kt from the West/Southwest

Visibility 10 km or more

Few clouds at a height of 1200 ft 
Scattered clouds at a height of 3000 ft

Temporary
from 25 at 12 UTC to 25 at 19 UTC

Visibility: 7000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft

rain showers

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 25 at 12 UTC to 25 at 19 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the West with gusts up to 30 kt

Visibility: 2000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 1500 ft, Cumulonimbus.

rain showers, snow, (heavy) showers, small hail or snow pellets

Temporary
from 25 at 19 UTC to 26 at 12 UTC

Wind 18 kt from the West/Northwest with gusts up to 30 kt

Visibility: 2000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 1500 ft, Cumulonimbus.

rain showers, snow, (heavy) showers, small hail or snow pellets

 

It’s no surprise really. The TAF’s are always wrong anyway. Prob get 40cm tonight now 

[feb1991blizzard]

A little bit of sleetiness just crept in then.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Pretty sure the IOM kills convection for me.

[severe snowstorm]

Short, sharp hail shower just went through here.

[feb1991blizzard]

roofs are white.

[itsnowjoke]

Hail shower