North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

Monday 00z

Good Lord!

Even the barren wastelands of Salwick may be in with a chance.

#festive

 

[Had Worse]

I zoomed in and there looks to be a snow shadow in your area.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

45 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I zoomed in and there looks to be a snow shadow in your area.

 

Ah - you know Salwick so well

[Had Worse]

Best of luck anyway, I think we all need it.

[cheshire snow]

Nothing wintry showing up on The Airport TAF however it only goes until 2100 Tomorrow evening it looks like been to marginal for low ground tomorrow Night.

Charts look good for the next seven days at least with the Jet Heading south Ok probably no winter wonderland but for those especially at sea level yet to see snow then the next seven days

Look good settling snow (I have no idea) snow actually falling I would say quite high

C.S

 

[Weather-history]

I'm struggling to remember a February as wet as this, it has been almost relentless. Still got a few days to go.

I'm not convinced about snow chances for low ground that some models are suggesting during the early hours tomorrow. It looks a short term event anyway.

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I'm struggling to remember a February as wet as this, it has been almost relentless. Still got a few days to go.

I'm not convinced about snow chances for low ground that some models are suggesting during the early hours tomorrow. It looks a short term event anyway.

Agreed.

Tues evening/night might throw up some snow showers across our region , higher ground in particular.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Winter....

..,

[Day 10]

Looking like the highest/first chance to see some of the white stuff at times over the next 7 days for the whole region. 

[Day 10]

Quite like the look of this chart pinched from the mod thread for mid-week.

On my phone so hopefully image loads ok. 

2022929611_viewimage-2020-02-23T081132_392.webp

[WillinGlossop]

First met office warning for snow this winter 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

First met office warning for snow this winter 

I think there were warnings out last week for what turned out to be wet concrete ..

[Iceaxecrampon]

11 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

First met office warning for snow this winter 

Rain + Snow = Sleet 

[Had Worse]

BBC radio Manchester reporting heavy snowfall around Bury area   ??? 

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Rain + Snow = Sleet 

It's a transition event. Rain to sleet and then snow (accumulating for a time over high ground) before milder air mixes through and turns it back to rain.

[dodge]

Yes probably the least liked of all 'wintry' options... wet sleet rapidly turning back to rain so by the time most of are wiping the sleep from our eyes we'll probably only have our CCTV cams to look back fondly of something white falling overnight....but does Thursday hold more interest?  <<Eastenders....duff.duff.duff.duff...duff.duff.duff>>

[Carl46Wrexham]

I’m looking more at Friday night which if it came off as GFS 06z shows would cause absolute chaos!

[Chris.R]

my forecast is 1–2 hours of snow followed by 1 hours of ice pellets then rain tonight for the south of the region. Was looking a bit better than that but the WRF 6Z has downgraded the risk. Snow a bit longer for north of the region. Higher ground no advantage from 5 am as air above Z900 (2500 ft) becomes above freezing, although Risk of freezing rain/ice pellets persist for high ground until around 8 am.

[Chris.R]

Tuesday night has been downgraded somewhat as well with less cold T850s coming in which is annoying. GFS though is keen to give us some frontal snow events on Thursday morning and Saturday morning and has been showing this with differing marginality for a few runs now. I think end of the week looks quite promising.

[ManiaMuse]

God thihs incessant wind is driving me crazy.

[cheshire snow]

42 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

I’m looking more at Friday night which if it came off as GFS 06z shows would cause absolute chaos!

Have you clicked on the DP on that site?

C.S

[Carl46Wrexham]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Have you clicked on the DP on that site?

C.S

Bit marginal to say the least but precipitation that heavy and with light winds I could imagine evaporative cooling would come into play.

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Bit marginal to say the least but precipitation that heavy and with light winds I could imagine evaporative cooling would come into play.

True

But almost 50cm of snow if my maths is correct that is a red warning and the Meto would be all over it by now I really do dislike these sites so misleading believe its fed by the GFS.

C.S

[Carl46Wrexham]

4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

True

But almost 50cm of snow if my maths is correct that is a red warning and the Meto would be all over it by now I really do dislike these sites so misleading believe its fed by the GFS.

C.S

I’m not taking it toooo seriously...it is after all only one run, but if the picture is the same 3 days from now...

As for the red warning, when we had the huge dumping in March 2013 (which exceeded 40cm) we *only* had an amber warning in place.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Carl46Wrexham

[Chris.R]

how the hell did I only end up with 1/10th of what Wrexham got in 2013. How unlucky is that.