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North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards


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Lovely fresh morning. I wouldn't call it crisp, it's not cold enough for that. A few views from my commute:

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Some pictures from new Brighton around high tide this afternoon

Up Malham Moor earlier today.

Buxton.

Posted Images

GFS Now showing snow Showers from Monday-Thursday for my location

Problem with this is...

1 Wind is Westerly causing the showers to go through Manchester/Stockport

2 it is not cold enough for low land snow -7Uppers not good enough need at least -10 uppers to account for the Irish sea

3 need a more NW Flow for any PPN Through Cheshire

C.S 

Edit

Lots of snow Showers for Manchester Just don't think its cold enough The Met Office update of Blustery Wintry Showers for NW England sounds about correct.

Edited by cheshire snow
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3 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

GFS Now showing snow Showers from Monday-Thursday for my location

Problem with this is...

1 Wind is Westerly causing the showers to go through Manchester/Stockport

2 it is not cold enough for low land snow -7Uppers not good enough need at least -10 uppers to account for the Irish sea

3 need a more NW Flow for any PPN Through Cheshire

C.S 

Edit

Lots of snow Showers for Manchester Just don't think its cold enough The Met Office update of Blustery Wintry Showers for NW England sounds about correct.

Good summary, sounds about right at this stage mate. 

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Can't believe it - it's been wall to wall sunshine all day, mild, light winds, high of around 8 degrees.  Felt nice in the sun. ?☀️

 

Felt strange seeing that big yellow ball in the sky, not had much sun over the last few months. Saw a few magpies as well. Spring is defo on the way.

 

Looks like were in for a stormy weekend - batten down the hatches.

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6 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Yup. Gone really cold now, the temp has nosedived from about 8°C at 3 pm, now currently reading 0.8°C. Probably an air frost tonight.

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I think early next week is looking too marginal for low ground. Even 200m looking a bit iffy. It does however still look extremely good for ground 300m plus. Buxton area & the Pennine passes in particular looking very snowy with frequent heavy snow showers & gales giving blizzard conditions at times.

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1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think early next week is looking too marginal for low ground. Even 200m looking a bit iffy. It does however still look extremely good for ground 300m plus. Buxton area & the Pennine passes in particular looking very snowy with frequent heavy snow showers & gales giving blizzard conditions at times.

Agreed.

The higher routes might have a very wintry 48 hours, im on ruddy nights next week or i would have gone up to the Kings Arms or Old Original for a meal, both 340m both will get clobbered.

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7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

The higher routes might have a very wintry 48 hours, im on ruddy nights next week or i would have gone up to the Kings Arms or Old Original for a meal, both 340m both will get clobbered.

White Hart at Lydgate a good shout too?

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Fantastic morning Clear blue sky and a nice chill in the air. 

Weekend looks like a normal storm for these parts....

Early next week should have some interesting showers. Thunder has to be possible

Edited by frosty ground
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I would not rule out seeing snowflakes falling anywhere especially on Tuesday morning but settling snow most definately reserved for the higher ground. 

Also deepends on convection also, the Irish Sea only tend to produce those small popcorn showers which seem very hit and miss whilst Ireland should get battered by big beefy showers from the Atlantic. 

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50 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I would not rule out seeing snowflakes falling anywhere especially on Tuesday morning but settling snow most definately reserved for the higher ground. 

Also deepends on convection also, the Irish Sea only tend to produce those small popcorn showers which seem very hit and miss whilst Ireland should get battered by big beefy showers from the Atlantic. 

Well when Buxton only has a forecast of Sleet then you know any PPN will be of the wet Liquid variety

C.S

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I thought the charts looked good for areas above 150M and possibly lower levels so surprised to see only rain and sleet forecast for areas above 300M, doesnt make sense, possibly wind is too strong and moderating temeratures too much? But the charts look similar to Jan 1984?

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34 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Well when Buxton only has a forecast of Sleet then you know any PPN will be of the wet Liquid variety

C.S

I'm only basing on the fact if upper air temperatures go as low as -7 as forecast by the models for Tuesday morning. - 7 uppers are usually good enough for falling snow on even modest hills and perhaps briefly for coasts in any downpours. 

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1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm only basing on the fact if upper air temperatures go as low as -7 as forecast by the models for Tuesday morning. - 7 uppers are usually good enough for falling snow on even modest hills and perhaps briefly for coasts in any downpours. 

Living close to the east coast (20 miles inland) I keep a record on any winter convective events off the North Sea. Such as 850hpa, pressure, how much snow and at what elevation etc.

Ive seen snow falling and laying with -7c upper 850s only on a couple of occasions since 2011 (at 53m asl) but it has always occurred at nighttime and the showers have been very beefy.

Ideally for low levels sub -8c has always guaranteed snow for me at my elevation so I imagine similar would apply for convective westerlies on your side of the Pennines too.

Monday looks like -5/6c 850s so probably snow falling above 300/400m before dropping lower on Tuesday and Wednesday as we see the colder upper air coming in from the west.

Still a risk that lower levels could see something, but they would need some very heavy showers and ideally overnight or early morning.

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An observation rather than criticism,  came in to see what the NW thread members made of the stormy weekend....not a mention of the nailed on interesting weekend of weather, but lots of talk about what for most is a slim to none chance of snow next week.   This really is a snow forum rather than a weather forum isnt it.    

 

 

(BRW not saying this storm is going to be epic, but it certainly wont be a boing weather weekend either)

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39 minutes ago, chris78 said:

An observation rather than criticism,  came in to see what the NW thread members made of the stormy weekend....not a mention of the nailed on interesting weekend of weather, but lots of talk about what for most is a slim to none chance of snow next week.   This really is a snow forum rather than a weather forum isnt it.    

 

 

(BRW not saying this storm is going to be epic, but it certainly wont be a boing weather weekend either)

Well we are snow lovers after all well most of us are chasing a flake or too at this time of year and if the wind picks up over the weekend and we get 1/2cm drifts chuffed is not the word #getreadytodig #getyourspoonsready ?

 

(BTW not saying this snow is going to be epic, but it certainly won’t be a boring weather week either)

Edited by itsnowjoke
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42 minutes ago, chris78 said:

An observation rather than criticism,  came in to see what the NW thread members made of the stormy weekend....not a mention of the nailed on interesting weekend of weather, but lots of talk about what for most is a slim to none chance of snow next week.   This really is a snow forum rather than a weather forum isnt it.    

 

 

(BRW not saying this storm is going to be epic, but it certainly wont be a boing weather weekend either)

Witness 65mph winds on average about 10 times a year so doesnt really interest me until its forecast to be above 75mph. High tides though so might have a wander down the beach.

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5 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Witness 65mph winds on average about 10 times a year so doesnt really interest me until its forecast to be above 75mph. High tides though so might have a wander down the beach.

Hang on to your hat

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Well what ever falls from the sky it will feel cold DP Monday night-Tues night  -5 with uppers of -7 and a air Temperature of 5c during the day sure that temperature will drop if any showers get through.

Before that a wild and wet Saturday night/Sunday night.

C.S

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