North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[alr1970]

3 hours ago, SnowThunder said:

Is anybody keeping tabs on rainfall amount so far this winter ? Are there chances this winter could be a record breaker for wettest ?

My gut feeling is that we haven't had a sustained dry spell since the Whaley Bridge incident in late July.

[Thunder Snow]

42 minutes ago, dodge said:

Another weekend and a repeat case of battening down the hatches and staying indoors as Storm Dennis lashes our country.  Locally I'm quite sheltered from the South Westerly winds although I expect it will still be downright wet and foul...but places to the North and West including Lancashire and Cumbria are in the 'sweet spot' for endless amounts of rain... hope they avoid any serious flooding but I fear water courses are already quite high.

I feel we could see alot more rain than forecast due to the sw wind

[iand61]

58 minutes ago, dodge said:

Another weekend and a repeat case of battening down the hatches and staying indoors as Storm Dennis lashes our country.  Locally I'm quite sheltered from the South Westerly winds although I expect it will still be downright wet and foul...but places to the North and West including Lancashire and Cumbria are in the 'sweet spot' for endless amounts of rain... hope they avoid any serious flooding but I fear water courses are already quite high.

Yeah, given the sodden ground from last weekend, anything approaching last weekends totals will cause even more misery for prone areas.

we’re in the amber zone here and Sundays flooding was the worst I’ve seen in the town since I was a kid so what’s the chance of having two 1 in 50 year floods in less than a week.

[Thunder Snow]

Pumping  stations on Warwick road Carlisle and in Appleby according to local news.

[Frost HoIIow]

Thinking the Welsh mountains could gobble up the worst of the rain here in the south of the region. Looking horrendous for north Lancs & Cumbria though. Hope you guys up there stay safe.

[damianslaw]

58 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Thinking the Welsh mountains could gobble up the worst of the rain here in the south of the region. Looking horrendous for north Lancs & Cumbria though. Hope you guys up there stay safe.

Yes not looking great. Long fetch south Westerlies always give high totals to the lake district and will not be surprised to see the yellow warning upgrade to amber over lakes as a whole come lunchtime. Ground is saturated and rivers rise very fast very quickly here with rapid runoff caused by the steep hillsides and short catchments from valley head to lower lying valley bottom. The lesser wind speed than Ciara is a worse blessing in this respect as rain bands will be slower moving. These are the kind of synoptics we saw during the deluge of Nov-dec 15 and much of winter 13-14. This winter could have echoed those but we've been spared the misery in the main of those so far.. 

[Thunder Snow]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes not looking great. Long fetch south Westerlies always give high totals to the lake district and will not be surprised to see the yellow warning upgrade to amber over lakes as a whole come lunchtime. Ground is saturated and rivers rise very fast very quickly here with rapid runoff caused by the steep hillsides and short catchments from valley head to lower lying valley bottom. The lesser wind speed than Ciara is a worse blessing in this respect as rain bands will be slower moving. These are the kind of synoptics we saw during the deluge of Nov-dec 15 and much of winter 13-14. This winter could have echoed those but we've been spared the misery in the main of those so far.. 

I fully expect the warning to be upgraded to amber

[itsnowjoke]

4 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Did they get caught in your trampoline net

No haven’t got one

[itsnowjoke]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Thinking the Welsh mountains could gobble up the worst of the rain here in the south of the region. Looking horrendous for north Lancs & Cumbria though. Hope you guys up there stay safe.

Does that mean me 

[Frost HoIIow]

8 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Does that mean me 

It does look iffy for sure.

[itsnowjoke]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

It does look iffy for sure.

Does that mean I will be ok 

[iand61]

4 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Does that mean I will be ok 

Ok if you want plenty of rain.

[Frost HoIIow]

47 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Does that mean I will be ok

Difficult to know for sure but it doesn't look great tomorrow.

[Thunder Snow]

Rain doesnt look as intense on the 18z for cumbria

[damianslaw]

39 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Rain doesnt look as intense on the 18z for cumbria

Models and forecast often struggle with rainfall totals in the lake district. Local differences do occur from valley to valley it's a notoriously difficult place to estimate where the heaviest rainfall will occur and impacts. Orographic uplift is the culprit and a sw wind produces it in galore here, pulse after pulse of rain..

[Thunder Snow]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Models and forecast often struggle with rainfall totals in the lake district. Local differences do occur from valley to valley it's a notoriously difficult place to estimate where the heaviest rainfall will occur and impacts. Orographic uplift is the culprit and a sw wind produces it in galore here, pulse after pulse of rain..

Yer once that sw wind starts its pumps rsin rain and morr rain. Think this happened in 2005 and 2015 with more rain than what was forecast. Rivers are sensitive they rose quite abit with todays rain 

[Geordiesnow]

I don't think this will be as bad as storm Desmond as its not as long lasting for one. With storm Ceira there was 2 belts of heavy rainfall that hit, this looks similar but that 2nd wave could well end up further south, we have too see. 

Plus looking at the graphics, it does look like the rainfall could be quite localised at times so not everywhere will get the rainfall at the same time. The issue with this system is that it following the heavy rainfall from last weekend so it would not take much more rainfall for the risk of flooding to occur. 

[Day 10]

Crap weekend weather on the way, stay safe people. Hope the potential flooding stays away, but doesn't look great for parts.  

[Thunder Snow]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Crap weekend weather on the way, stay safe people. Hope the potential flooding stays away, but doesn't look great for parts.  

Hopefully stays away from here

[Iceaxecrampon]

Cabin up.

[itsnowjoke]

Don’t think this one is going to be as bad as Ciara regarding wind it’s more the amount of rain  that’s coming

[itsnowjoke]

It’s just chucking it down 

[Rush2019]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

Don’t think this one is going to be as bad as Ciara regarding wind it’s more the amount of rain  that’s coming

Just had a look at METAR TAF, Manchester,  the highest forecast gusts for today is 55mph at 6pm, as it currently stands,I agree not as gusty as Ciara. Just rain, rain and more rain.

[Thunder Snow]

Rain has set in for carlisle

[itsnowjoke]

When is it meant to hit it’s just chucking it down here