North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[SP1986]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

What is Estofex?

Genuine question I have no idea

C.S

It's a research group that provides experimental convective warnings. Basically there is a warning for strong convective potential and Level 2 is something we don't usually see here. 

 

www.estofex.org

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

It's a research group that provides experimental convective warnings. Basically there is a warning for strong convective potential and Level 2 is something we don't usually see here. 

 

www.estofex.org

Thanks SP

C.S

[SP1986]

I've just read the Estofex properly and whilst it doesn't explicitly suggest our region, strong tornadoes are a possibility in the North of the area - mostly Scotland and perhaps Cumbria. 

[cheshire snow]

Man Airport now 29c at 11am

C.S

[Geordiesnow]

I do hope any storms can wait until more this evening time to allow the heat to build and see what temperatures we may get today. Sadly it would seem this may not be the case and storms could pop off anytime this afternoon. 

[SP1986]

Looking at the sky here lots of AlCu Cas but no sign of any building cloud. A thin layer of cloud is keeping temperatures surpressed too. Who knows what will happen later! 

[alr1970]

1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

It's a research group that provides experimental convective warnings. Basically there is a warning for strong convective potential and Level 2 is something we don't usually see here. 

 

www.estofex.org

They had us under a level 1 for excessive rainfall last Friday, which we got, and again for Tuesday night, which we also got. So their record is impressively accurate recently.

[SP1986]

2 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

They had us under a level 1 for excessive rainfall last Friday, which we got, and again for Tuesday night, which we also got. So their record is impressively accurate recently.

I agree they are accurate. I do think inland will see some impressive activity later as implied by Estofex 

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Looking at the sky here lots of AlCu Cas but no sign of any building cloud. A thin layer of cloud is keeping temperatures surpressed too. Who knows what will happen later! 

I think there is a CAP atm which is forecast to get weaker as the afternoon and evening goes on but you can see the idea that things are trying to develop hence the risk of storms for the region. 

[SP1986]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think there is a CAP atm which is forecast to get weaker as the afternoon and evening goes on but you can see the idea that things are trying to develop hence the risk of storms for the region. 

that's true, I think there will be a CAP all day but severe storms could develop below the CAP later. I fully intend on finding a live webcam over Manchester or north to watch one of these severe storms. Cant wait! Could be a historic, memorable day on a national level!

Edited July 25, 2019 by SP1986

[SP1986]

Interesting observation here is that all the AlCu that was here has gone now, to the north/east. That may mean stability has risen here. We were on the very edge of the MetOffice warning, so I think here, may just be too far west for storm activity. Maybe some time to add a few degrees onto the temperatures before they start falling again!

[alr1970]

31-33 around my garden, depending on how sheltered a particular spot is.

Edited July 25, 2019 by alr1970

[Cheshire Freeze]

33.6c here. Crazy.

[SnowThunder]

Seems like it's starting early, lashing it down here now and some rumbles of thunder, really humid outside too

Edited July 25, 2019 by SnowThunder

[SnowThunder]

And now it's gone, that was a bit meh, sky cluttered with cloud now too so I guess that's it for the sun and potential temps/storms for today

[Blowingsand]

Hearing rumbles just north of Blackpool.

4 in the last five minutes.Moving closer.

Something is stirring.

Looking at the radar it looks promising.

Now heavy rain has just started.

32 degrees

[Interitus]

Non standard sites (but top quality instruments) the Manchester Uni Whitworth Meteorological observatory is reporting 32.56°C at roof level and 34.42°C at street level at 13:28 UTC (14:28 BST) - http://whitworth.cas.manchester.ac.uk/current/index.html

[cheshire snow]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

33.7C at Manchester Airport in 1990.

Record just been broken Kev

Man Aitport just recorded 34.2c

C.S

[SP1986]

rather predictably, the storms are going east of Wirral. So that's probably it for storms chances here. It's been a typical very warm summers day, nothing more or less really...  now high cloud streaming in, temperature is dropping again.

[Cheshire Freeze]

34.3c reached here about 30 mins ago. Falling slightly now.

[Interitus]

17 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Record just been broken Kev

Man Aitport just recorded 34.2c

C.S

34.6°C Nantwich, 34.5°C Knutsford and Bidston 3/8/1990, 34.3°C Crosby 19/7/2006 - Met Office - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/regional-climates/north-west-england--isle-of-man_-climate---met-office.pdf

Incidentally, the official Man Airport weather station closed, produces Metar only, last one shows 32°C. Where is this reading from?

Edited July 25, 2019 by Interitus
Added more stuff

[SnowThunder]

1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

rather predictably, the storms are going east of Wirral. So that's probably it for storms chances here. It's been a typical very warm summers day, nothing more or less really...  now high cloud streaming in, temperature is dropping again.

Not got a good view of it passing through ?

Can hear the Thunder from it now

Edited July 25, 2019 by SnowThunder

[SP1986]

30 minutes ago, SnowThunder said:

Not got a good view of it passing through ?

Can hear the Thunder from it now

A few low rumbles but quite far away. Sadly nothing here. 

[alr1970]

Some folks are getting a soaking on Southport pier:

[WillinGlossop]

33c Glossop 35c  Manchester hot hot hot