North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[cheshire snow]

3 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

Can't come soon enough.

Fair Enough if rain is your thing.

For me I would much like this current set up to continue unfortunately the change

Will be in place by the weekend.

C.S

[WillinGlossop]

78% chance snow Monday here according to netweather forecast... will feel brisk with Max 4c and max feel -1c 

forecast will change of course but will be colder 

Edited February 26, 2019 by WillinGlossop

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well, this month has shown just why I prefer to get the cold and snow in early. 

In December under the same set up if clear skies and light winds, we'd be struggling temperature wise even with the S'ly drift. 

The sun is just too strong by Feb, late Feb certainly. 

There's an optimum window for winter IMO, last week of Nov through to last week of Jan. 

[Frost HoIIow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well, this month has shown just why I prefer to get the cold and snow in early. 

In December under the same set up if clear skies and light winds, we'd be struggling temperature wise even with the S'ly drift. 

The sun is just too strong by Feb, late Feb certainly. 

There's an optimum window for winter IMO, last week of Nov through to last week of Jan. 

Nov-Dec 2010 all but a distant memory. Will we ever see the likes of it again? Probably not given the warming climate. For England & Wales to record a temp of 20C in February is worrying. Last Summer was pretty roasting too. Moors were on fire again not far from here today. If we get another hot Summer it could be catastrophic for the moors. https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=undefined&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjy_PWhkdjgAhVxxoUKHZyND5YQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.manchestereveningnews.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fgreater-manchester-news%2Ffire-saddleworth-dovestone-reservoir-smoke-15885034&psig=AOvVaw1RHUuJBdeHEd8eh7sIRZ6l&ust=1551227063554074

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Nov-Dec 2010 all but a distant memory. Will we ever see the likes of it again? Probably not given the warming climate. For England & Wales to record a temp of 20C in February is worrying. Last Summer was pretty roasting too. Moors were on fire again not far from here today. If we get another hot Summer it could be catastrophic for the moors. https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=undefined&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjy_PWhkdjgAhVxxoUKHZyND5YQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.manchestereveningnews.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fgreater-manchester-news%2Ffire-saddleworth-dovestone-reservoir-smoke-15885034&psig=AOvVaw1RHUuJBdeHEd8eh7sIRZ6l&ust=1551227063554074

 

Looks like turning much wetter and much cooler into March, bang on cue.

What we've seen over the past week or so is a progression that is quite rare. Hence the record temperatures. Had this same set up occurred for the same length of time in the 1800s we'd have still seen unusually warm temperatures. It has no doubt been exacerbated by the fact that we had a very warm summer last year, followed by a mild winter, thus resulting in above average SSTs around the UK. The perfect storm for what we're seeing now. 

It will be interesting to see how this summer goes now. I'm hoping for it to be cooler and wetter than last year, but I would not at all be surprised if it turns out to be a scorcher.

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Nov-Dec 2010 all but a distant memory. Will we ever see the likes of it again?

People on this site in 2008 were benchmarking winter 2005-06 as the coldest it would get. 

I don't think people grasp just how cold that period of late November to Christmas 2010 was, CET says 2nd coldest December ever but it was more that that, it was the coldest 30 day period up to Christmas since at least 1772.  So in this warming climate, we still managed such a spell like that less than a decade ago, so we have some form of benchmark for coldness to gauge and this didn't occur during the coldest period of winter on average as well. 

How many would have believed a prediction  11 years ago today that within 3 years, we would experience the coldest 30 day run-up to Christmas in over 200 years?

Edited February 26, 2019 by Weather-history

[frosty ground]

24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

People on this site in 2008 were benchmarking winter 2005-06 as the coldest it would get. 

I don't think people grasp just how cold that period of late November to Christmas 2010 was, CET says 2nd coldest December ever but it was more that that, it was the coldest 30 day period up to Christmas since at least 1772.  So in this warming climate, we still managed such a spell like that less than a decade ago, so we have some form of benchmark for coldness to gauge and this didn't occur during the coldest period of winter on average as well. 

How many would have believed a prediction  11 years ago today that within 3 years, we would experience the coldest 30 day run-up to Christmas in over 200 years?

I find it odd that the same people that posted the same stuff on TWO in the early 2000's are still posting the same nonsense now. Actually i reckon the same stuff is being posted on TWO also

[cheshire snow]

All models agree in it turning much colder from the weekend Temperatures some 10-11c colder than recently even from Monday Temperatures pegged back to 6-7c with plenty of PM Shots

bringing Sleet/Snow to the Higher Ground.

C.S

[WillinGlossop]

Currently clear blue skies bright sunshine 19c spring has sprung... three hours tidying garden under the belt.... 

Heavy sleet/snow/cold rain from Saturday night onwards according to netweather.... 

Edited February 26, 2019 by WillinGlossop

[Chris.R]

 

Well this is more like it. Already 15.8°C. Today is by far the warmest and sunniest day. Perhaps the wind backing a little more has helped.

Almost a year to the day I had a rare ice day and now I’m looking at a record warm February day. 

Edited February 26, 2019 by Chris.R

[Frost HoIIow]

Pleasantly warm out there. If it stayed like this in Summer it would be great. Far better than stifling high 20s low 30s temps. 

[cheshire snow]

Manchester Airport just gone above 18c

Current Temperature 18.4c

C.S

[Summer Sun]

18.7c in Keswick

I've known many a summer day in Keswick to be colder than that

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Just spent two hours in my back garden catching the rays in just shorts.   Hopefully given the strength of the sun now I topped-off my level of Vit D3.  Unfortunately I can't record the temp. as my outdoor sensor is fully exposed to direct sun.

First sunbathing session in what is still winter. 

[Had Worse]

Afternoon pick up at school. Absolutely  Glorious, hard to believe it will be half this by weekend and wet.

[cheshire snow]

Unofficial reports of 20.4c at Manchester Airport today

C.S

[Deep Snow please]

6 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Currently clear blue skies bright sunshine 19c spring has sprung... three hours tidying garden under the belt.... 

Heavy sleet/snow/cold rain from Saturday night onwards according to netweather.... 

Bring it. This farcical heat needs to go.

[cheshire snow]

39 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Bring it. This farcical heat needs to go.

As a weather enthusiast I welcome all weather extremes and let face it although not everyone's cup of tea the last few days have been extreme in terms of warmth for Feb.

As posted earlier all models now agree on it turning significantly colder with quite a few PM shots with sleet and snow especially on high ground but maybe not exclusively this thread will probably be a bit more lively in the next week or so as we go from one extreme to another.

C.S

[itsnowjoke]

February needs to be February and stop pretending it’s april or May

[itsnowjoke]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

As a weather enthusiast I welcome all weather extremes and let face it although not everyone's cup of tea the last few days have been extreme in terms of warmth for Feb.

As posted earlier all models now agree on it turning significantly colder with quite a few PM shots with sleet and snow especially on high ground but maybe not exclusively this thread will probably be a bit more lively in the next week or so as we go from one extreme to another.

C.S

Just when the mrs has dug out all her spring summer collection 

[Despicable Weather]

21 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like turning much wetter and much cooler into March, bang on cue.

What we've seen over the past week or so is a progression that is quite rare. Hence the record temperatures. Had this same set up occurred for the same length of time in the 1800s we'd have still seen unusually warm temperatures. It has no doubt been exacerbated by the fact that we had a very warm summer last year, followed by a mild winter, thus resulting in above average SSTs around the UK. The perfect storm for what we're seeing now. 

It will be interesting to see how this summer goes now. I'm hoping for it to be cooler and wetter than last year, but I would not at all be surprised if it turns out to be a scorcher.

Hi CC, just wondering why you think it's the SST's after the previous few seasons? The omega block and the UK's position surely are reactions to the surrounding pressure systems pumping up that heat from way down south?

I'm unsure about the weather found these parts, east Merseyside right now however spent best part of 50 years just north of London and the frequent sub-zero temps in the last few months mean I have a different experience! So this point you mention has piqued my interest

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Despicable Weather said:

Hi CC, just wondering why you think it's the SST's after the previous few seasons? The omega block and the UK's position surely are reactions to the surrounding pressure systems pumping up that heat from way down south?

I'm unsure about the weather found these parts, east Merseyside right now however spent best part of 50 years just north of London and the frequent sub-zero temps in the last few months mean I have a different experience! So this point you mention has piqued my interest

Well if the SST profile around the UK is above average owing to prior conditions, there will be less modification of the warm air mass as it approaches the UK and less chance of fog around the coasts than there would be if warm uppers were riding over cold seas. 

UK SSTs are not responsible, however, for the general set up we find ourselves in at the moment.

[pip22]

The moors is burning again now and its not even March!

Saddleworth Moor fire: 'Apocalyptic' blaze breaks out in Yorkshire after Britain's hottest ever winter day

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/27/saddleworth-moor-fire-apocalyptic-blaze-breaks-yorkshire-britains/

Edited February 27, 2019 by pip22

[Chris.R]

 Max yesterday was 17. 0°C. Very respectable indeed. The official  station on the beach  recorded a max  around 19°C. Today will be much cooler here thanks to an on-shore wind after midday. 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Spent another lunchtime in the garden sunbathing in just shorts.  Air temp felt smidgeon lower than Tuesday.  Given the forecast I suspect there'll be quite a while before sunbathing outdoors again. 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Wildswimmer Pete
My mistake