North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

All the debate on how far north that front was going to get, even at this last moment it looks like it is starting to go pear-shape for some parts of the favourable areas. 

All the heavy stuff is of the coast now. Is that it for the south?

 

good news for the east thou as those shower will pack more of a punch

Edited January 31, 2019 by frosty ground

[Chris.R]

-1.6°C here. Think we  will beat last night before midnight. Hope none of the leftover cloud from any Easterly showers spoil things. Highly doubt anything snow wise will make it this far. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Chris.R

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

All the heavy stuff is of the coast now. Is that it for the south?

 

good news for the east thou as those shower will pack more of a punch

Northern part of that amber warning area, if I lived there and was a snow lover, I would be starting to worry because it doesn't look good at the moment. 

[Spah1]

Whats all this about on Sunday?

Looks a weak fizzly affair to me. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Won’t get over the hills to Lancashire imho

Same here, would be a very unexpected snowfall if it were to make it over the pennines and the fells but will be going for a walk up a fell tomorrow to see the beautiful snow glistening in the clear blue skies.

[Spah1]

Sunday

 

Chris ideas???

[Chris.R]

 Sunday has always looked like a non-event to me and still does,at least below 300 m. Usual suspects ie Buxton and Will are going to do well. 

[Mark_p]

Daily Mail headline (I know puke) "Londoners are warned to be home by 9pm when snowbomb hits the capital after 'deadly' blizzards blast South West, causing chaos on roads and rail, airports to shut and schools to close early." Meanwhile in't *edit part of the north west under the streamer on Tuesday night* the other day dropped 10cm imby and only gets a mention in the local news - and that was a moan about some schools daring to close. My commute took an hour rather than the usual 20 minutes, wheels were spinning everywhere in Billinge, home to the highest point in merseyside at 179 m (although the village is nowhere near that alltitude.) Rainford and Billinge still have a good covering on pavements, fields etc as does my north facing backgarden.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Mark88

[Deep Snow please]

16 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Won’t get over the hills to Lancashire imho

If a couple of decent streamers set up and the showers band together off them it could get over the hills, but I don't think that's all that likely. Had snow over here from an E'ly before I think - although not much has to be said.

 

How much would it cost to flatten the pennies anyway?

[WillinGlossop]

Just put bins out someone’s snizzled me drizzle.... temp -2c... Sunday lookslike drizzle too atm... clouded up somewhat...can see the clouds moving from e/ne... breeze has picked up somewhat... 

[WillinGlossop]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Sunday has always looked like a non-event to me and still does,at least below 300 m. Usual suspects ie Buxton and Will are going to do well. 

Lastest Peak District says 200m but if it’s drizzly and a fizzling occluded front wont mean anything of note anyhows...

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Lastest Peak District says 200m but if it’s drizzly and a fizzling occluded front wont mean anything of note anyhows...

-3°C and that wind makes it feel like -10

[Joe Bloggs]

Less melting in south Manc today compared to yesterday! 

Surprised by this. Snow amounts tonight barely changed from this morning. 

Must be drier air. 

[WillinGlossop]

7 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

-3°C and that wind makes it feel like -10

A really penetrating frost tonight...  woodburner on full whack....

[frosty ground]

Still got blowing snow here almost looks like snowfall 

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

A really penetrating frost tonight...  woodburner on full whack....

Wood effect wood burner, gas fired?

[WillinGlossop]

Multi fuel wood & coal.... 

[PsychedelicTony]

Forgive me for  massively over simplifying things, but some of these winter "events" are near enough repeater events to an extent. After living in Manchester for nearly 30 years I knew as well many of you that this current event would correct well, well south.

If Northern extent modelled Stoke or Liverpool/Hull then there's no chance. As you will know. Gone well south of most models predictions today though.

Further to that if you got a cold Westerly or West North West direction even lowland South Manchester can cop it big time. It's rare but I see Chorlton did well on Tues night, good to see the pics of a decent cover.

I reckon a lot of toys will be out of the prams tonight midlands/ some parts of south east when they get nowt.

Very poorly modelled really this "event" at short range, the weather don't give a damm about the models and just carries on. Human input will be needed for some time I reckon. For most parts of the North West these systems pushing up from the South West are a waste of time. Lose energy/ don't track far enough north / fizzle out or pivot.

I did find that sometimes on a NE  though the showers made it over Pennines and we're quite intense as to give hope for next couple days in North West. 

Good luck guys. It's definitely colder your way than here!

Edited January 31, 2019 by PsychedelicTony

[Spah1]

8 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Forgive me for  massively over simplifying things, but some of these winter "events" are near enough repeater events to an extent. After living in Manchester for nearly 30 years I knew as well many of you that this current event you correct well, well south.

If Northern extent modelled Stoke or Liverpool/Hull then there's no chance. As you will know. Gone well south of most models predictions today though.

Further to that if you got a cold Westerly or West North West direction even lowland South Manchester can cop it big time. It's rare but I see Chorlton did well on Tues night, good to see the pics of a decent cover.

I reckon a lot of toys will be out of the prams tonight midlands/ some parts of south east when they get nowt.

Very poorly modelled really this "event" at short range, the weather don't give a damm about the models and just carries on. Human input will be needed for some time I reckon. For most parts of the North West these systems pushing up from the South West are a waste of time. Lose energy/ don't track far enough north / fizzle out or pivot.

I did find that sometimes on a NE though the showers made it over Pennines and we're quite intense as to give hope for next couple days in North West. 

Good luck guys. It's definitely colder your way than here!

[PsychedelicTony]

OK maybe South East looking good to be fair. As that's a phone screen shot when is that for?

[Had Worse]

19 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Multi fuel wood & coal.... 

Is that a stock photo or your front room?

Clock is about 9.30pm too

[WillinGlossop]

14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Is that a stock photo or your front room?

Clock is about 9.30pm too

14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

 

Hehe not stock photo was from Christmas, I’m now sitting on couch and took bounce photo

Edited January 31, 2019 by WillinGlossop

[WillinGlossop]

This looks better on loop

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Forgive me for  massively over simplifying things, but some of these winter "events" are near enough repeater events to an extent. After living in Manchester for nearly 30 years I knew as well many of you that this current event would correct well, well south.

If Northern extent modelled Stoke or Liverpool/Hull then there's no chance. As you will know. Gone well south of most models predictions today though.

Further to that if you got a cold Westerly or West North West direction even lowland South Manchester can cop it big time. It's rare but I see Chorlton did well on Tues night, good to see the pics of a decent cover.

I reckon a lot of toys will be out of the prams tonight midlands/ some parts of south east when they get nowt.

Very poorly modelled really this "event" at short range, the weather don't give a damm about the models and just carries on. Human input will be needed for some time I reckon. For most parts of the North West these systems pushing up from the South West are a waste of time. Lose energy/ don't track far enough north / fizzle out or pivot.

I did find that sometimes on a NE  though the showers made it over Pennines and we're quite intense as to give hope for next couple days in North West. 

Good luck guys. It's definitely colder your way than here!

This is such a good post. 

A “cold westerly” delivers to lowland south Manchester once every 4-5 years or so. It is just about the only setup which delivers here, certainly more than a light dusting. 

Every time it happens the Met Office always underplays it and it often comes as a surprise - I genuinely think yesterday morning warranted an amber warning here but the streamer was barely mentioned on forecasts the day before.

Sometimes local knowledge is the best forecast - predicting convective streamers relies on knowing what has delivered in the past, given a very specific wind direction and speed. 

[Deep Snow please]

Met0 not expecting any of the showers to make it over the pennines tonight. Although read that before and got a few nice surprises. 

 

Although i am amazed at how little it's melted these past few days. Temps must barely be creeping above freezing by day.