Incoming Cold Spell Discussion - 28/01/2019 - 2/04/2019

[northumberland snowman]

2 hours ago, stripeyfox said:

I suppose their damned if they do and damned if they don't. Snow is sufficiently rare here that any snowfall which amounts to a covering probably warrants a warning.

 

We all know what happens when we get snow - schools close, airports / trains disrupted, chaos on the roads. Then you get people trotting out the lines about "bloody hell they get 2 metres of snow in *Norway/Canada/Austria (*delete as appropriate) and they don't grind to a halt" - but I don't think that's entirely fair. Those countries must spend a huge amount on winter weather infrastructure and you can bet your bottom dollar the people moaning about their train being cancelled would be the same ones moaning if their local council spent millions of their council tax on a fleet of snowploughs which sat unused 95% of the time. I think we just have to accept that a bit of snow disrupts us for a day or so and for that reason I think the MO warning is fair - even for 30mm of snow

 

 

 

 

Well said that man

[kold weather]

VERY good 12z ECM in terms of placement of the low at 72hrs. Milder air a little further south on this run as well!!

That is about where I expect it to be and look like once all is said and done, don't think many shifts will happen from that point.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Jo Farrow]

And not to be taken too literally, but maybe interesting to watch the low away to the NW, not just #StormGabriel away to the south (named by MeteoFrance)

 

[Jo Farrow]

A look at the Netweather SR model and it's progress of snow. Differences for SE with quicker clearance than MO warnings suggest, also patchy feature ahead of front, linked to low #StormGabriel to the south. It is already really cold out there

[Skullzrulerz]

What are the chances of Cornwall getting snowfall tomorrow/next few days ?

[Jo Farrow]

Here we go then https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=tv.netweather.netweatherradar&hl=en_GB 

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning

Between 01:00 Tue 29th and 12:00 Tue 29th

Ice and snow expected across parts of Scotland and parts of northwest England on Tuesday morning.

What to expect

• Some roads and railways likely to be affected with longer journey times by road, bus and train services
• Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Probably some ice on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths

Reason for update

Risk of snow is now expected to affect more eastern parts of Scotland than previously, area extended east to include Fife , Lothians and Borders.

Further details

Showers will turn increasingly to snow on Tuesday morning. 5 to 10 cm of fresh snow is expected above about 200m in Scotland with a cover of 1 to 2 cm at lower levels. Northwest England may see localised 2-4 cm above 200m. Ice will affect some untreated surfaces.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-29

[Jo Farrow]

18 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Was wondering about that myself MS? 

Lookin at Weirpigs graphics above we will be peppered.

How is it this morning where you are?

[cambs_ry]

Light snow here in Edinburgh that wasn't forecasted by virtually every model. I see MetO just updated their yellow warning in Scotland to bring it eastwards. What's caused precipitation to move further inland from the west coast than predicted?

[Snow Queen one]

cold and frosty here very thin cloud

Edited January 29, 2019 by Snow Queen one

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, rynmorgn said:

Light snow here in Edinburgh that wasn't forecasted by virtually every model. I see MetO just updated their yellow warning in Scotland to bring it eastwards. What's caused precipitation to move further inland from the west coast than predicted?

The yellow warning area isn't the extent of the snow, it's an area deemed to see some impacts from severe weather. So other parts could see snow and ice, and the forecast is very tricky today

[Jo Farrow]

12 minutes ago, rynmorgn said:

Light snow here in Edinburgh that wasn't forecasted by virtually every model. I see MetO just updated their yellow warning in Scotland to bring it eastwards. What's caused precipitation to move further inland from the west coast than predicted?

The trough/ cold front has extended further north so instead of just affecting Wales and England, it's reaching into southern Scotland. It's linked to the low away to the south of the UK. #StormGabriel, giving a bit of extra oomph and uncertainty

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:

The trough/ cold front has extended further north so instead of just affecting Wales and England, it's reaching into southern Scotland. It's linked to the low away to the south of the UK. #StormGabriel, giving a bit of extra oomph and uncertainty

Currently started to snow in south yorks which wasn't forecast until later today just shows how tricky todays forecast is for everyone  

[cambs_ry]

Cold rain now. Can't be too disappointed I suppose, it was just meant to be a cold cloudy day here.

Edited January 29, 2019 by rynmorgn

[Jo Farrow]

6 minutes ago, rynmorgn said:

Cold rain now. Can't be too disappointed I suppose, it was just meant to be a cold cloudy day here.

would be nice for some decent snow though. Near Kendal has a fair covering, affecting the roads

[Snow Queen one]

Thank you jo for popping in to keep us updated.  Part of me wants snow the other part does not. Because my daughter is 7mths pregnant and drives from Maidstone to Medway for work.

[stripeyfox]

7 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Thank you jo for popping in to keep us updated.  Part of me wants snow the other part does not. Because my daughter is 7mths pregnant and drives from Maidstone to Medway for work.

Yes, this is the battle in my brain too. The excited child in me who love the snow is willing it to fall from the sky, but the pragmatic and concerned side knows my wife has to travel to work the nightshift on the childrens ward at the hosptial and that involves a 40 mile round trip.

 

[Snow Queen one]

Stripyfox I think things were so much easier when we were kids and had none of these worries.  Blue bell hill gets bad in snow but we can't stop going about our daily business as usual though. Cause snow may not effect us badly that's life. 

[matty40s]

15 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Thank you jo for popping in to keep us updated.  Part of me wants snow the other part does not. Because my daughter is 7mths pregnant and drives from Maidstone to Medway for work.

It should have melted by April.

[stripeyfox]

Just now, Snow Queen one said:

Stripyfox I think things were so much easier when we were kids and had none of these worries.  Blue bell hill gets bad in snow but we can't stop going about our daily business as usual though. Cause snow may not effect us badly that's life. 

I'm lucky that I only work locally so I can walk to work and if the school is closed I can work from home so it doesn't make much difference to me. But I don't like the thought of my wife having to drive home after a nightshift on snowy icy roads. She's a good driver though, but when you've been at work all night, it's the last thing you want I expect!
 

[Summer Sun]

Warnings out for the end of the week

Between 15:00 Thu 31st and 12:00 Fri 1st

• East Midlands
• East of England
• London & South East England
• North East England
• North West England
• South West England
• Wales
• West Midlands
• Yorkshire & Humber

Snow and ice may bring disruption to parts of England and Wales from Thursday afternoon through to early Friday

What to expect

• There is a small chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
• There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
• There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected
• There is a small chance of injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces

Further details

Rain and snow is expected to move in from the southwest, moving across England and Wales through Thursday into Friday. This is likely to fall as heavy rain at first across the far southwest of England, but as it meets the cold air established over the rest of the country snow becomes more likely. There is a chance of 2-5cm of snow for some places, timings are currently uncertain. 10cm is possible in places, though there is uncertainty at this stage on where is most likely to see the greater snowfall accumulations. Overnight Thursday into early Friday ice may also become a hazard on any untreated surfaces as temperatures fall below freezing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-31

[stevofunnelcl]

very broad warning, from the north-east of England all the way down to Plymouth, very cautious wording, and the impact matrix graphic with the tick at bottom (unlikely end of the scale)

This is a forecasting nightmare !

[Jo Farrow]

[LeeSnowFan]

13 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Can you explain??

[Snowyowl9]

Started off as drizzle quite earlier than expected,turned to sleet and snow but wasn`t sticking only higher up wet snow.

Last 30 mins heavy snow with a SW wind was south and a covering white over now 0.9c eased off abit

Edited January 29, 2019 by Snowyowl9