Incoming Cold Spell Discussion - 28/01/2019 - 2/04/2019

[Man With Beard]

Well just a few hours before the event and we have considerable differences in who might be affected.

HIRLAM has the northern extent from Mid-Wales, through to about Oxford, down to Essex

ECM has the line from Suffolk again through about Oxford and onto Wales (which is all affected) - Notably, the ECM has snow all the way into Cornwall

GFS and a couple of minor models push the snow further north, probably reaching Birmingham

ARGEPE gets the front close to Birmingham / Suffolk (on a line) but it dies out quickly so only areas much further south have more than a dusting

EURO4 is very similar to ECM except possible patches of snow up to Birmingham

IMO with the ARPEGE, ECM and EURO4 being similar in distribution (though not completely in intensity), you'd have to back their ideas right now. It really will be a wait and see day for areas north of the Oxford / Suffolk line, and perhaps coasts of Devon/Cornwall.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Jo Farrow]

Amber warning now from Met Office. Thursday afternoon into the evening south Wales, and SW England 

"A band of rain will arrive from the southwest on Thursday afternoon, quickly turning to snow and becoming heavy at times. 3 to 7 cm is likely to accumulate quickly - within two to three hours - with up to 10 cm in some places. The highest snowfall accumulations are likely to be in areas above 150 metres or so."

Remember all of this area is under a yellow warning, some blurring of the edges is still needed for higher impact area. All at risk of severe weather today.

Carefully drawn around Exeter, home of Met Office.

 

[FetchCB]

4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Amber warning now from Met Office. Thursday afternoon into the evening south Wales, and SW England 

"A band of rain will arrive from the southwest on Thursday afternoon, quickly turning to snow and becoming heavy at times. 3 to 7 cm is likely to accumulate quickly - within two to three hours - with up to 10 cm in some places. The highest snowfall accumulations are likely to be in areas above 150 metres or so."

Remember all of this area is under a yellow warning, some blurring of the edges is still needed for higher impact area. All at risk of severe weather today.

Carefully drawn around Exeter, home of Met Office.

 

Reflecting the hills around Exeter rather than preference 

[Jo Farrow]

7 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Reflecting the hills around Exeter rather than preference 

The other side of the warning into Wiltshire and Gloucestershire is rather more angular.

[FetchCB]

4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

The other side of the warning into Wiltshire and Gloucestershire is rather more angular.

Indeed reflecting the more inconsistent topography there....or they were pushed for time and just finished it with a couple of clicks 

[Summer Sun]

Met office

UPDATE: Braemar has now fallen to -14.4 °C. That's the lowest temperature in the UK since 2012 (-15.6 °C at Holbeach, Lincolnshire 11 February)

[ALL ABOARD]

 

Could really improve snow amounts in SW if this comes to pass. 

Watching the radar with Interest to see if the low begins to wrap. 

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

 

Could really improve snow amounts in SW if this comes to pass. 

Watching the radar with Interest to see if the low begins to wrap. 

 

[ALL ABOARD]

5 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

 

Was just about to post. 

Steady as she goes. 

Very Interesting, wouldn't be surprised to see Amber warning area increase. 

[Jo Farrow]

34 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Was just about to post. 

Steady as she goes. 

Very Interesting, wouldn't be surprised to see Amber warning area increase. 

was stunning to click on radar and see that. padstow harbour camera looking pretty on north coast  https://www.aspects-holidays.co.uk/webcams/padstow

[Deep Snow please]

47 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Was just about to post. 

Steady as she goes. 

Very Interesting, wouldn't be surprised to see Amber warning area increase. 

Does this change the track of the low later in the day?

[winterof79]

3pm real time Vs 3 pm forecasted 

About 2 and half hours ahead of schedule

[FetchCB]

16 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

was stunning to click on radar and see that. padstow harbour camera looking pretty on north coast  https://www.aspects-holidays.co.uk/webcams/padstow

Just across the River Camel

https://www.johnbraycornishholidays.co.uk/webcam/polzeath.html

[ALL ABOARD]

9 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Does this change the track of the low later in the day?

Not so much but means more in the chance of snow for low lying areas as flow changes from SE to NE. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Big Dave]

I recall that previously, precipitation has intensified over the English Channel before it hits the South Coast,  I haven't seen that referenced here and am intrigued whether that would or would not be the case today and if not, why not?  Any advice? 

Would it require colder air passing over warm channel?

[Jo Farrow]

Super shot from Dundee Satellite Receiving Station @DundeeSat.     http:// http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/   of today's snow cover and fog over northern England into the Midlands

[summer blizzard]

Do we have an official maximum snow depth from the event.

[Snowyowl9]

This has been a decent cold spell,snow has lasted well not thawing much all week the bit we`ve got which is not that much 2 inches at most higher up.

Thursday was a disappointment as the snow didn`t reach here but we`ve had more than our fair share last year.

And its just been coming in from the atlantic no highs to the north etc.