Incoming Cold Spell Discussion - 28/01/2019 - 2/04/2019

[Summer Sun]

2.4c and light rain snow not making it east of the pennines even the moors are only getting sleet

[Katrine Basso]

Wrong thread deleted

                      

Edited January 29, 2019 by Katrine Basso
Wrong thread deleted

[Northwest NI]

5 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

How is it this morning where you are?

Hi Jo

A covering of snow when I woke up. Melts a bit between showers .  Looks to be worse in Fermanagh which is Just south of here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47034907

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Can you explain??

Summer Sun, posted the text from the Met Office warning, this is the chart

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Hi Jo

A covering of snow when I woke up. Melts a bit between showers .  Looks to be worse in Fermanagh which is Just south of here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47034907

yes saw this from Co. Fermanagh 

 

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Not too dissimilar to the ECM 06z, though the eCM was a little more orientated West-East than the NW model is. I'm assuming the NMM model that Net weather uses is based of off the GFS model? If so that is quite promising given the snow levels already present and how much more progressive the GFS was in general.

[Jo Farrow]

You may have seen mention of "snowbomb" . Hype again, I wrote this about today's warning areas and the snow bomb label. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9380-what-is-a-snowbomb 

[Jo Farrow]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not too dissimilar to the ECM 06z, though the eCM was a little more orientated West-East than the NW model is. I'm assuming the NMM model that Net weather uses is based of off the GFS model? If so that is quite promising given the snow levels already present and how much more progressive the GFS was in general.

It is GFS based, yes.  

and ECM chart https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/en-royaume+uni-ecmwf-94.htm  Thurs 6pm

Edited January 29, 2019 by Jo Farrow
add ECM chart

[Buddiefan]

Could someone explain why Anglesey has been left out of the warning area? Is it because it'll be a sleety mix,and therefore not cause disruption? Or is it the fact that the mountains will shelter us from any meaningful precipitation?

[Jo Farrow]

12 minutes ago, Buddiefan said:

Could someone explain why Anglesey has been left out of the warning area? Is it because it'll be a sleety mix,and therefore not cause disruption? Or is it the fact that the mountains will shelter us from any meaningful precipitation?

The frontal band just kind of pivots, staying away from NW UK. NW Wales is at the edge of where the frontal band might reach, it may not reach into northern England. 

So arrives near Cornwall, heads NE but twists to pull away eastwards. Bit of variation in the models about orientation of front. 

[Summer Sun]

Beebs thoughts for Thursday

Still subject to change of course over the next 24 hours or so

[Summer Sun]

North Wales possibly the sweet spot at the end of the week? South of Dublin has a very narrow but intense area of snow

[Summer Sun]

North of the border and totals in Scotland are relatively steady according to ICON with not much change over the week after today's falls with the colder air preventing a thaw

 

[stevofunnelcl]

we talk about a little sleet and snow here... meanwhile, the polar vortex arrives for central USA

shiver me timbers !!

Steve Lookner is talking about it now, look him up on Youtube / Twitter

[Sceptical]

Cold this morning.

[Summer Sun]

Updated snow and ice warning

Between 13:00 Thu 31st and 21:00 Fri 1st

Snow and ice may bring disruption to parts of England and Wales from Thursday afternoon through to late Friday

What to expect

• Possible travel delays on roads stranding some vehicles and passengers.
• Possible delays or cancellations to rail and air travel
• Some rural communities could become cut off
• Power cuts may occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected
• A chance of injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Untreated pavements and cycle paths might be impassable because of black ice

Updated: 10:15 on Wed 30 Jan 2019 GMT

Reason for update

The warning has been updated to increase the likelihood of impacts across England and Wales, change the start and end times, but also reduce the northwards extent of the warning.

Regions and local authorities affected:

• East Midlands
• East of England
• London & South East England
• North West England
• South West England
• Wales
• West Midlands
• Yorkshire & Humber

Further details

Areas of rain and snow are expected to move into the UK from the southwest from Thursday and through Friday. Any single period of rain and snow is not expected to last more than 6 to 9 hours but some snow accumulations are likely with 1-3 cm likely in places within the warning area and the potential for 5-10 cm, perhaps particularly over Wales and southwest England. Snow amounts will vary markedly across England and Wales with many places seeing very little accumulating snow. With cold air in place along with areas of rain and snow icy stretches are likely to form.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-31

[Summer Sun]

 

[MattKris]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Nothing for North Staffordshire then  .

Edited January 30, 2019 by Norrance

[Deep Snow please]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Why do snow fronts always fizzle out so quickly, but rain has no issue getting up here in summer?

[Snowyowl9]

Upper air originaly showed to be -3 but now for here for this major event its -7c just shows how much its shifted futher south.and that`s GFS.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Why do snow fronts always fizzle out so quickly, but rain has no issue getting up here in summer?

Could be just the way the low is forecast to track? Had it tracked a bit further north I have no doubt that more would have seen snow from this

[Jo Farrow]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Updated snow and ice warning

Between 13:00 Thu 31st and 21:00 Fri 1st

Snow and ice may bring disruption to parts of England and Wales from Thursday afternoon through to late Friday

What to expect

• Possible travel delays on roads stranding some vehicles and passengers.
• Possible delays or cancellations to rail and air travel
• Some rural communities could become cut off
• Power cuts may occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected
• A chance of injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Untreated pavements and cycle paths might be impassable because of black ice

Updated: 10:15 on Wed 30 Jan 2019 GMT

Reason for update

The warning has been updated to increase the likelihood of impacts across England and Wales, change the start and end times, but also reduce the northwards extent of the warning.

Regions and local authorities affected:

• East Midlands
• East of England
• London & South East England
• North West England
• South West England
• Wales
• West Midlands
• Yorkshire & Humber

Further details

Areas of rain and snow are expected to move into the UK from the southwest from Thursday and through Friday. Any single period of rain and snow is not expected to last more than 6 to 9 hours but some snow accumulations are likely with 1-3 cm likely in places within the warning area and the potential for 5-10 cm, perhaps particularly over Wales and southwest England. Snow amounts will vary markedly across England and Wales with many places seeing very little accumulating snow. With cold air in place along with areas of rain and snow icy stretches are likely to form.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-31

 

[Jo Farrow]

Oh it's cold out there https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/map

Here's the Netweather snow accumulation chart Thurs pm-Fri am as a theme rather than detailed specifics

[Jo Farrow]

Also Met Office yellow warning for Scotland and NE England Snow and Ice added for tomorrow into Friday. 

Ice and Fog warnings for tonight https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings 

[Jo Farrow]

Overnight mins from Met Office 

Loch Glascarnoch  -12.7c  Braemar -12.5c   Balmoral  -12.0c
overnight mins in Scotland.

-10.5C in Northumberland.

-9.3C in Powys.

-8.5C in Londonderry.