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Timmytour

Cold February CETs

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Can we get a February in 2019 that delivers the cold so many of us yearn for?

There have been 27 successive February's that have gone by without one that has  had a CET of 1.5C or below, enough to put it in the 10% all-time coldest Februarys.

31 successive Februarys have passed without without one registering a negative CET value.  We shouldn't be surprised at this since negative CETs for February are a rare beast.   Just one in the 18th and two in the 19th century. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, there were 4 in the 20th century. If, at that rate of growth we could as a result expect 8 in the 21st century, then this year might be a good time to get them going!  that said, all six of the negative CETs in the last two centuries came in the second half of those centuries, so perhaps a bit of patience is needed!

Returning to the length of time without a CET at or below 1.5C, something I'm sure many of us would settle for this year, 27 years seems a kind of record run we ought to expect as our average CETs indisputably get warmer and warmer. However, though 27 years is not of course the end of the run, it is worth bearing in mind the following;-

 -  It is only the third longest run to date on record.  Pride of place goes to the period from 1699 which was brought to an end after 41 successive Februarys over 1.5C by 1740.  Next, but being chased down by the current spell, is 1856 onwards, a run of 30 successive such Februarys brought to an end by 1895.

 -  The only other such run post Second World War to go into double figures was a run of ten which was closed out by February 1979.  In all there have been thirteen such runs of 10 or more successive February's recorded during the last 360 years. The current spell is the only one that registers in the top 6 of them during the last 100 years.
 

  


 

 

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Also worth mentioning we've experienced significantly cold December (2010), January (2010) and March (2013) CETs in recent years, so there's no reason we shouldn't see a cold February either despite the overall warming trend.

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You could say the same about all the extended winter months except for December and March,i don't think there has been anything extreme in October,November,January,February,April or May for a long time!

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Last time:

October had a CET under 9.0c was 1993 and under 8.0c was 1992. Or if you want to go more extreme, under 7.0c was 1896.

November had a CET under 5.0c was 1993 and under 4.0c was 1925. Or under 3.0c was 1915.

Needn't go over December as we recently had December 2010.

January had a CET under 2.0c was 2010 and under 1.0c was 1987. Or under 0.0c was 1979. Out of all the Winter months that is overdue a subzero CET, it's January.

February had a CET under 2.0c was 1991 and under 1.0c was 1986. Or under 0.0c was 1986.

Needn't go over March as we recently had March 2013.

April had a CET under 7.0c was 1989 and under 6.0c was 1986. 

May had a CET under 10.0c was 1996 and under 9.0c was 1902.

 

Very cold Novembers are a particular rare beast I find. There was 9 Novembers with a CET under 5.0c from 1900 to 1925 yet from 1926 to 2018, we have managed only 5 Novembers with such a CET.

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We've had some notably lengthy cold periods in February in recent years, but not long enough to bring the CET down to low levels, 2009 and 2012 both had very cold first halves. Feb 2010 and 2013 were consistently cold, but never severe. We were all shocked by December 2010 and March 2013, so no reason why another very cold February doesn't show up in the not too distant future.

Long overdue a freezing January mind - the atlantic always seems to have too much energy to it seems in January..

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