Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[damianslaw]

14 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I usually expect April to be similar temp wise to Jan and Feb, April wind comes from E/NE, Dec to Feb it comes from W/SW

Yes April is far more likely to bring winds from between north and south east - off a cold source (N Sea) which is colder than in January or February, whereas Jan and Feb tend to bring winds in from between south and north west off a milder source (atlantic). The difference though is the strength of the sun, which by April has enough oomph to it to quickly raise air and ground temperatures. 

A long fetch SW wind in January will always be warmer than a northerly or easterly in April, the air source will be as warm in Jan as it is in April, the balance begins to switch in May, when easterlies can become warm if they have a more SE source, northerlies will still be cold, and the atlantic is warming only slowly still. Come June an easterly should bring warm sometimes hot weather, a northerly will feel cold, but land temps are much higher and the strength of sun overrides things, so a northerly can be as warm as a SW wind. 

SW wind is accompanied by humidity which makes for very sticky conditions in the summer, and in the winter makes for a damp mild feel to things.

[Weather-history]

Previous posts make you think April has been a cold month in recent years, truth is that it hasn't, infact if there is any month that hasn't been so lacking in cold in the last 30 years, you would have to consider April as an example. 

Two record breakingly Aprils, numerous other mild to warm Aprils. 

Lets not kid ourselves that April has been a cold weather lovers godsend it has been the opposite. It is 2019, the April 1961-90 average came into existence on 1st May 1990 and yet in all those years, we still have yet to record an April CET that was at least 1.0C below the 1961-90 average. 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Another awful April morning, frosty with sea mist lurking ready to roll in

2-4 months ago, I'd expect warmer weather W/SW wind and likely to be at around 7 degrees in the wind and cloud, 

[Azazel]

Been a very depressing Spring so far and we’re nearly half way through. Getting bored of having to have the heating on all the time.

[SunnyDazee]

6 hours ago, Azazel said:

Been a very depressing Spring so far and we’re nearly half way through. Getting bored of having to have the heating on all the time.

It’s been the exact same all the way through. I can count 2 warm days since February. It’s not been a cold weather lovers dream because there’s been no snow and it gets up to 11-12 degrees in the day, but it’s been negatives at night, and not just in the countryside. The heating bills are gonna be through the roof. When you throw in compressions around this time last year we were getting 20 degrees at least for 3-4 days and now we’re getting 12. I’m in my winter coat a lot of the time and there’s a reason it’s a winter coat and not an april coat

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, SunnyDazee said:

It’s been the exact same all the way through. I can count 2 warm days since February. It’s not been a cold weather lovers dream because there’s been no snow and it gets up to 11-12 degrees in the day, but it’s been negatives at night, and not just in the countryside. The heating bills are gonna be through the roof. When you throw in compressions around this time last year we were getting 20 degrees at least for 3-4 days and now we’re getting 12. I’m in my winter coat a lot of the time and there’s a reason it’s a winter coat and not an april coat

Opposite here in the west.  Today was sparkling sunshine and despite being only 12-13C it feels very warm in the strong sunshine.  Not a cloud in the sky and fairly calm too today.  Slightly more cloud into the weekend but still not bad!

[MP-R]

22 hours ago, damianslaw said:

SW wind is accompanied by humidity which makes for very sticky conditions in the summer, and in the winter makes for a damp mild feel to things.

Thank god they're not very common past Christmas. Very much an October-December thing - hence this period being the wettest on average for my neck of the woods. Sadly though this often brings balmy conditions long into the autumn - Halloween 2014 for example, although that was sunny so better than most southwesterlies.

[reef]

6 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

It’s been the exact same all the way through. I can count 2 warm days since February. It’s not been a cold weather lovers dream because there’s been no snow and it gets up to 11-12 degrees in the day, but it’s been negatives at night, and not just in the countryside. The heating bills are gonna be through the roof. When you throw in compressions around this time last year we were getting 20 degrees at least for 3-4 days and now we’re getting 12. I’m in my winter coat a lot of the time and there’s a reason it’s a winter coat and not an april coat

We've just had the 15th warmest February and 17th warmest March in the CET series. Both months were well above average for sunshine and although March was wet, this fell almost exclusively in the first half of the month. The second half was bone dry.

We might be getting 12C now but that's around average for the time of year - temperatures of 20C very much aren't.

I'm actually astonished there's so much moaning. I can only speak for here, but the last 12 months have truly been exceptional for how mild, dry and sunny they have been overall. We haven't had a single month wetter than average, duller than average or cooler than average since last April!

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, reef said:

We've just had the 15th warmest February and 17th warmest March in the CET series. Both months were well above average for sunshine and although March was wet, this fell almost exclusively in the first half of the month. The second half was bone dry.

We might be getting 12C now but that's around average for the time of year - temperatures of 20C very much aren't.

I'm actually astonished there's so much moaning. I can only speak for here, but the last 12 months have truly been exceptional for how mild, dry and sunny they have been overall. We haven't had a single month wetter than average, duller than average or cooler than average since last April!

Yes the most notable recurring feature since exactly this time last year when the weather broke to a warm dry theme, has been the propensity for high pressure to dominate by and large against a very very weak atlantic, which has only managed to make inroads for short periods and never in any particularly gutsy manner. Hence we've had plenty of dry very sunny and much warmer than average weather. Here again we are locked in a high pressure spell, lasting over 10 days, the third this year, late Dec into Jan, and second half of Feb being lengthy very dry periods..

Things will break as they always do, our weather tends to get stuck in dry periods and notably wet periods in recent decades it seems, we are currently in a dry period.. 

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, reef said:

 

 We haven't had a single month wetter than average, duller than average or cooler than average since last April!

Our region has just had the second wettest March on record and it was all down to the first 17 days of the month.

[markyo]

Driving over the Pennies as i do daily,the reservoir levels are shocking,we need months of rain desperately,a repeat of last year would cause major problems. Some of the dams are empty,never seen that at this time of year,very worrying.

[stevofunnelcl]

pet peeves.

people throw around the word 'benign' as if it's a good thing. instant switch off. I'll experience benign, after i've stopped breathing

no action, no excitement, nothing of interest happening.

then there is the obsession with what the conditions are going to be like for Easter. I couldn't give a stuff. Holiday time tends to bring the silly people outdoors as well, and i stay out of it... and i stay happy that way

[markyo]

On 11/04/2019 at 07:06, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Another awful April morning, frosty with sea mist lurking ready to roll in

2-4 months ago, I'd expect warmer weather W/SW wind and likely to be at around 7 degrees in the wind and cloud, 

Sounds like a lovely start to the day,very envious!

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Driving over the Pennies as i do daily,the reservoir levels are shocking,we need months of rain desperately,a repeat of last year would cause major problems. Some of the dams are empty,never seen that at this time of year,very worrying.

Not according to the Environment agency..

[SunnyDazee]

Boys and girls I’ve just seen the BCC three month 500 hPa forecast, and oh my goodness if it’s true, and it’s a big if, this summer is gonna be scolding and dry, another hot summer in a row! Who likes hotter and who likes cooler weather here?

[markyo]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Not according to the Environment agency..

Well i'm just saying what i've seen. Reservoirs from the South Pennies up to approx level with the Settle area are empty,not all but many. I have never seen this before at this time of year. We do need a lot of rain i'm afraid.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, markyo said:

Well i'm just saying what i've seen. Reservoirs from the South Pennies up to approx level with the Settle area are empty,not all but many. I have never seen this before at this time of year. We do need a lot of rain i'm afraid.

2nd time you've missed the 'n' out, looks like you're finding money lying around

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

pet peeves.

people throw around the word 'benign' as if it's a good thing. instant switch off. I'll experience benign, after i've stopped breathing

no action, no excitement, nothing of interest happening.

then there is the obsession with what the conditions are going to be like for Easter. I couldn't give a stuff. Holiday time tends to bring the silly people outdoors as well, and i stay out of it... and i stay happy that way

I agree I'm not a fan of the word 'benign' - it means switch off time for me as well.. Also, yes there is an obsession this year creeping into the forecasts for easter - partly because there is so much little to talk about at the moment, and easter is very late.. the weather can get very political at holiday time seasons - almost as if the government is telling them to mention any potential prospect of decent weather far in advance to ensure people go out and spend there leisure time here and money... it happens during bank holiday May and especially school holiday periods in May and summer..

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Well i'm just saying what i've seen. Reservoirs from the South Pennies up to approx level with the Settle area are empty,not all but many. I have never seen this before at this time of year. We do need a lot of rain i'm afraid.

March rainfall will have helped alot here, after a relatively dry winter. At this time of year evaporation as yet to kick in, and so it will take a few weeks of sustained dry weather to see levels drop markedly. Last year we entered the summer with notably low levels, but that was on the back of not especially wet weather since January, a longer lag time than this year.

[markyo]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

March rainfall will have helped alot here, after a relatively dry winter. At this time of year evaporation as yet to kick in, and so it will take a few weeks of sustained dry weather to see levels drop markedly. Last year we entered the summer with notably low levels, but that was on the back of not especially wet weather since January, a longer lag time than this year.

I understand what your saying,any lag from a wet March though should have come through by now. I've seen reservoirs 30plus feet down,several totally empty,never in my working life(30 plus years) have i seen this at this time of year,bearing in mind my patch is the Pennies,one of the wettest parts of the country.

[Northernlights]

Speaking from another very dry area we have a strong SE wind this morning at 20% RH so the heavy rain we had a week ago has  all but disappeared and the field drains have stopped running.Another dry summer is the last thing we need with a local dairy farm already cutting grass to direct feed to the cows. Next years forage already being consumed.

[Sir Mim]

On 11/04/2019 at 21:53, reef said:

We've just had the 15th warmest February and 17th warmest March in the CET series. Both months were well above average for sunshine and although March was wet, this fell almost exclusively in the first half of the month. The second half was bone dry.

We might be getting 12C now but that's around average for the time of year - temperatures of 20C very much aren't.

I'm actually astonished there's so much moaning. I can only speak for here, but the last 12 months have truly been exceptional for how mild, dry and sunny they have been overall. We haven't had a single month wetter than average, duller than average or cooler than average since last April!

I really hope summer reverses that trend then.

 

Not too bad out there atm; it's been quite sunny so far but it's fairly cool, and now some clouds are building up and the sun is becoming more intermittent.  

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

On 11/04/2019 at 22:27, damianslaw said:

Yes the most notable recurring feature since exactly this time last year when the weather broke to a warm dry theme, has been the propensity for high pressure to dominate by and large against a very very weak atlantic, which has only managed to make inroads for short periods and never in any particularly gutsy manner. Hence we've had plenty of dry very sunny and much warmer than average weather. Here again we are locked in a high pressure spell, lasting over 10 days, the third this year, late Dec into Jan, and second half of Feb being lengthy very dry periods..

Things will break as they always do, our weather tends to get stuck in dry periods and notably wet periods in recent decades it seems, we are currently in a dry period.. 

Has something shifted over the last year, though?  It seems that, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, the Jet is weakening, and I wonder whether we might pass a threshold beyond which the NH PFJ shuts down altogether.  Must admit, living on the drier side of the country, I'm getting quite worried.

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Further to the above:

https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/in-the-community/protecting-our-environment/managing-water-resources/our-water-resources/

 

Quote

Rainfall for the Anglian Water region was average for March. Rainfall at the start of the month helped boost rivers and reservoir levels but the region saw little to no rainfall for the last 2 weeks. The 6 month average is 94% and the 12 month average is 87% of the LTA.

River flows range from below normal to normal across the region. Groundwater levels are below normal at almost all our indicator sites. 

 

[reef]

I can't say I'm thrilled with the outlook at the moment. We've just had some turf put down on Monday and haven't had a drop of rain since. The GFS suggests a whole 1mm between now and the 27th. The ground was like dust when we had it rotivated.

Anyone else worried we'll pay for this in summer?