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Potential Cold Shot Incoming.

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Thought I would open a thread to observe and follow the cold PM shot over the next few days. Yellow Meto warnings are already out for snow and ice, And the models show plenty of snow showers packing in behind into tomorrow and Wednesday. The Radar will be a must..

Good luck all.

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Met Office are just not buying those snow accumulation charts shown on the Euro4 at all - 1-3cm max on 200m or more - hardly anything on low ground.

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MetO seem awfully despondent about accumulations compared to Euro4 charts.

 

This cold shot could be anything from no settling to a few inches on low ground at this rate, ridiculous amount of uncertainty less than 24 hours before the event, Key seems to be determining if this evenings cold front brings snow on the front or rain. We're all hoping for the latter obviously.

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38 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Met Office are just not buying those snow accumulation charts shown on the Euro4 at all - 1-3cm max on 200m or more - hardly anything on low ground.

Yep, which is total nonsense. Look at the parameters. Plus, I've lost count of the number of times I've seen significant snow in this setup (at 146 m) when the forecast is for snow only over the hills. Their forecasts on this are nonsense.

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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep, which is total nonsense. Look at the parameters. Plus, I've lost count of the number of times I've seen significant snow in this setup (at 146 m) when the forecast is for snow only over the hills. Their forecasts on this are nonsense.

And, once it's happened, we'll all know if you're right or not.

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Weather history+Chris R mentioned the winds being slacker over the Irish after the 1st front which would increase the chance of snow to lower levels on the coast 

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Latest Airport Taf  for Leeds and Bradford looking good but it is at elevation

Screenshot_20190121-134539_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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The Irish Met Office has issued a yellow warning of snow and ice for tonight and tomorrow morning. They aren't expecting much, it says 1-2cm generally but the warning covers the entire country so there may be some surprises!

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Ha Ha yellow warning for snow and ice..c'mon guys 🤡

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29 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not sure why this thread has even been started to be brutally blunt.

It's just a bit of fun but it is however indicative of how poor the winter has been so far though. Made worse by the anticipation of something more significant which is starting to look like it might never arrive!

 

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Icon - EU  has no snow falling from the showers following the front anywhere in England - all rain event.

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And, once it's happened, we'll all know if you're right or not.

They've now changed the regional forecast to 'Snow to low levels at times'.

 

56 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not sure why this thread has even been started to be brutally blunt.

Because some of us could see a decent fall of snow from this. My area normally does.

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Icon - EU  has no snow falling from the showers following the front anywhere in England - all rain event.

The ICON is also notoriously poor at advecting sea-generated showers inland. Usually the only time you'll see showers inland during the winter months in the ICON-EU is if they're courtesy of an organised trough. Countless times you can run the precip accumulation charts out to the end of the run and see how all the precip from the showers stops along the coastline.

As an aside note, last Wednesday the EURO4 was consistently predicting 10-11cm of snow in Norfolk from the brief showery northwesterly flow on Thursday. In reality very little to no accumulations occurred, and the model eventually backed off the idea and only had 1-2cm by the morning runs on the Thursday. So I suspect the snow depth charts are a little exaggerated in the EURO4 world for some areas at this lead time.

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Latest from Jo:

 

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Euro4 model 12z update. Snow accumulation to midday Wednesday. Not much change.

426998D8-D24F-4905-85A2-D9DDD7E42790.jpeg

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Possibly snowing in Keswick, based on looking at a webcam. Which is interesting given they are not much above sea level, although the webcam's quality is very poor.

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I would think high evelations such as the lake district mountions, Snowdon, W.Scotland Highlands, etc are probably going to be getting some big falls, Ii'd suggest probably not the day to go hiking as conditions could go down very rapidly and the models are all suggesting quite an aggressive flow with regards to instability so they may be near constant in those favoured locations. I'm betting some lucky person scores 6 inches tomorrow at higher elevation in a favoured spot.

Totals lower down will depend on just how much 'melt' time there wil lbe between any showers and just how warm the surface still is, as sadly this winter has been on the mild side thus far bar the odd frosty night.

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12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I would think high evelations such as the lake district mountions, Snowdon, W.Scotland Highlands, etc are probably going to be getting some big falls, Ii'd suggest probably not the day to go hiking as conditions could go down very rapidly and the models are all suggesting quite an aggressive flow with regards to instability so they may be near constant in those favoured locations. I'm betting some lucky person scores 6 inches tomorrow at higher elevation in a favoured spot.

Totals lower down will depend on just how much 'melt' time there wil lbe between any showers and just how warm the surface still is, as sadly this winter has been on the mild side thus far bar the odd frosty night.

Surfaces not very warm around here today, ground was frozen solid this morning.

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ECM charts showing a very deep area of low pressure heading for the uk next Wednesday, 964mb! Very gusty winds up to 74mph, could be interesting as it bumps into colder air!

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Yes in these situations, snow can easily fall to low levels thanks to evaporative cooling, some places can see a fair bit, whereas go 5 miles down the road and it a green scene.

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1 hour ago, Paul said:

 

i will be amazed if there isn't laying snow around and through the Cheshire Gap. Amazes me how north westerlies in this region are always downplayed yet always deliver snow cover in this area.

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Latest weather models showing next week the jet stream take a huge dive south so we become stranded in the northern side of the jet with low pressure in charge, could make for some pretty interesting weather with some colder air. If that low pressure was to move south and the huge high over western Russia to split and move towards the north east we would be in the perfect set up for an easterly! A glimmer of hope is on the horizon for next week and beyond! (Probably nothing will happen but we shall see!)

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