Focussed Model Discussion

[knocker]

The 0900 sat image. Cs progressively invading the sky here

[knocker]

Another view of the record breaking jet over North America associated with the extra tropical cyclone in the Atlantic

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html

 

Edited February 19, 2019 by knocker

[Singularity]

Wow, that's really something - thanks for sharing Knocker.

 

Copied over from the other thread, with respect to developments starting about a week from now:

Alongside MJO phase 1 not needing the a Nino-base state to increase heights due N and NNW of the UK anyway (note - a neg AO not necessarily required; neutral would suffice, maybe even weakly positive), it's also possible that the Nina-like interference is showing signs of taking a break or even dissipating at long last; this is difficult to foresee as there aren't any available spatial plots of AAM derived from the model output; there's been persistent -AAM at 30*N that represents the main component of the Nina-like interference. If that gives way, like it did for a short time late Jan, then the jet my find its way back into mainland Europe for at least a little while.

It's interesting to see the big ridge from  Alaska/Northeast Pacific attempting to plunge the AO down though - that's a Nino-like PNA configuration, possibly benefiting from seasonal zonal wind weakening in terms of how far poleward it's able to reach.

Plenty to monitor and wonder/worry about.

[Paul]

Locking this for now, fresh thread here: