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Paul

Focussed Model Discussion

Paul

This is the focused model discussion - please only post about the model output. 

For a more laid back, bantery model discussion please use the Cold hunt - models and banter thread.

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The 0900 sat image. Cs progressively invading the sky here

geo.thumb.JPG.a7921251eec98477a3742eee61686fc8.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.30777979b0a2f0007c8a43ae7bf4daa4.gif

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Wow, that's really something - thanks for sharing Knocker.

 

Copied over from the other thread, with respect to developments starting about a week from now:

Alongside MJO phase 1 not needing the a Nino-base state to increase heights due N and NNW of the UK anyway (note - a neg AO not necessarily required; neutral would suffice, maybe even weakly positive), it's also possible that the Nina-like interference is showing signs of taking a break or even dissipating at long last; this is difficult to foresee as there aren't any available spatial plots of AAM derived from the model output; there's been persistent -AAM at 30*N that represents the main component of the Nina-like interference. If that gives way, like it did for a short time late Jan, then the jet my find its way back into mainland Europe for at least a little while.

It's interesting to see the big ridge from  Alaska/Northeast Pacific attempting to plunge the AO down though - that's a Nino-like PNA configuration, possibly benefiting from seasonal zonal wind weakening in terms of how far poleward it's able to reach.

Plenty to monitor and wonder/worry about.

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Locking this for now, fresh thread here:

 

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