Focussed Model Discussion

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Aren't they both showing big ridges in Alaska? Which promotes a slack pattern down stream , not sure spring would develop from that pattern 

-PNA usually means heights close to the UK and probably milder than average surface conditions. The caveat being micro-movements can develop a colder UK high? 

Anyway, ergo a rather blocked Rossby wave setup, and it is no surprise to see the GFS coming out with plumes heading into high latitude. On the 06z a direct route through the UK...

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

-PNA usually means heights close to the UK and probably milder than average surface conditions. The caveat being micro-movements can develop a colder UK high? 

Anyway, ergo a rather blocked Rossby wave setup, and it is no surprise to see the GFS coming out with plumes heading into high latitude. On the 06z a direct route through the UK...

But the placement-you allude to @pna/pacific- format..is bubblying around now via models..

And the sharpening/ebb-an flow..will have massive ramifications for all hp placements especialy the atlantic sector..

Which obviously includes ourselves..i flagged this up saturday.

Its the main jet director now..

And again has some big notions via its position.

There are a good few outs/supports that have us in a far more fa ourable place going forwads via a more fanciful pacific modeling...i will refrain from sticking them up atm...as there is just to much diverge- rite now...

However expect some very interesting developments....fairly soon now!!!

Gfs 6z...a very extreme solution!!!

Edited February 5, 2019 by tight isobar

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

But the placemen you allude to @pna/pacific- format..is bubblying around now via models..

And the sharpening/ebb-an flow..will have massive ramifications for all hp placements especialy the atlantic sector..

Which obviously includes ourselves..i flagged this up saturday.

Its the main jet director now..

And again has some big notions via its position.

There are a good few outs/supports that have us in a far more fa ourable place going forwads via a more fanciful pacific modeling...i will refrain from sticking them up atm...as there is just to much diverge- rite now...

However expect some very interesting developments....fairly soon now!!!

Gfs 6z...a very extreme solution!!!

Yes, agree, all to play for.

Fine adjustments or variable changes to such a pattern, can change the UK outlook from mild to cold. I very much doubt GFS 06z has nailed the solution for post D8 yet.

Just getting to grips with the long wave pattern, and we can take it from there.

Edited February 5, 2019 by IDO

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Somehow i don't think the micro scale short term setup is going to necessarily make much difference to the 20th Feb, which is when the ensembles go out to.

You'd think so, but it is uncanny to me how the clusters are continually going for an "all or nothing" scenario post D7. I'll be watching with interest to see if it really is that simple!!

[knocker]

Classic warm sector here.  Fog, sky obscured

[knocker]

The fronts and 964mb

 

[knocker]

The gfs on the low on Friday

[knocker]

The fax and ecm for Friday

Apparently there has been massive upsurge in demand over the last three or four days

[knocker]

The ecm develops a wave on the front to the southwest on Saturday and runs it across the south of England Sunday morning with some moderate rain.

And once the upper trough has moved away east the ridge builds and the usual battle ensues with the temps warming up after a cold start to the week

Edited February 5, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Euro seasonal for feb isn’t far away from a cold posh pattern but looks likely not to be 

[knocker]

Outlook - unsettled and very windy at times

The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image.

Yesterdays fronts and rain have now cleared all areas by this morning apart from the south east and here cloud and patchy rain will linger all day whilst most other areas of the country will be dry with sunny intervals, The exception being the north west, particularly western Scotland, where wintry showers will occur

But a glance at the 1800 fax chart shows that complications are about to arise in the form of a couple of frontal waves. One on the existing front and the other which has formed away to the south west at the base of the upper trough and has tracked rapidly north east to be south of Ireland. Between them they bring some wet, and quite breezy, weather to most areas this evening and tonight with snow on the high ground in Wales, the north of England and Scotland, and perhaps even sneaking lower in Scotland. Clearing from the south but becoming very windy here by morning.

The rain and snow will clear through Thursday morning and the wind will abate but there will still be some squally wintry showers around, mainly in western regions, courtesy of an occlusion associated with the filling low south of Iceland.

But note the developing system away to the south west on the above chart and over the next 24 hours this undergoes explosive cyclogenesis and by midday Friday is 961mb west of Ireland resulting in very wet and windy weather for the whole country with gales, perhaps severe in exposed areas

By Saturday the low has tracked north east of Scotland and it still very windy with frequent squally showers with temps around average

The wind will abate on Sunday but still sunny intervals and showers but another little system has formed to the south west and and tracks across the south of England bringing more persistent rain;possibly some snow on the higher ground.

[knocker]

Continuing briefly with the gfs. As the trough moves east and the high ridges to the west the wind veers northerly and abates resulting in a widespread frost Monday morning

And now we are in familiar territory with the east bound energy engaging the resurging subtropical high and by Wednesday morning a weak front has managed to traverse the country. And by late Thursday another is attempting the same

 

Edited February 6, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The updated fax charts for Friday. Probably looking at gusts in the region 55-65kts  in the Irish Sea and western coastal regions of England and Wales

[knocker]

The ecm also has the subtropical high ridging north just to the west Sunday/Monday with a widespread frost Monday morning.

From this point and for the rest of the week the ridge consolidates and moves east and proves very resilient in holding the energy to the west at bay. Thus the country moves gradually into a southerly/south easterly drift with temps varying around the average but remaining mainly dry

[knocker]

Toasty

[knocker]

Pleasant enough morning here albeit with a veil of Cs, Presumably associated with the weakening cold front

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Toasty

Toasty..and nearly 2 weeks away!!..on the whole.

Lets see what the 6z gfs op and supports say..

In ref to this ooz suite also!!!

@eps

Edited February 6, 2019 by tight isobar

[knocker]

Well I certainly would't quibble with the 00 GEFS and I have made some attempt at discussing the earlier time frame leading up to this period

Edited February 6, 2019 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Fairly good agreement on the ECM ensembles now on a D5 ridge just out west

Meaning only a low chance of the Atlantic barrelling through by D7

 

GFS/GFS(P) best represented by the two smallest clusters here. 

Will either model now give a bit?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Fairly good agreement on the ECM ensembles now on a D5 ridge just out west

Meaning only a low chance of the Atlantic barrelling through by D7

 

GFS/GFS(P) best represented by the two smallest clusters here. 

Will either model now give a bit?

The extended clusters now spread the binary solutions across three 

a) broad slider solution of the Canadian trough extension against wedging to our n/ne (as we saw second half jan) 

b) nw European block

c) coolish zonal 

Suite currently slightly favouring solution a .... 

[knocker]

There is some pretty nasty weather due over the next three or four days stating with tonight which has gone downhill a tad since I posted earlier, The rest of the afternoon should be okay apart from frequent showers in Scotland and a few over N/ Ireland and NW coastal regions of England and Wales/. But by 1800 a little perturbation on our old trailing front has brought some moderate rain into the south coast and this will track north east over the next nine hours,

And more importantly. the wave currently developing at 15W west of Cornwall. intensifies and tracks north east to be 993mb in the North Sea by 0600. This will bring a band of heavy rain across the country from around 2200 onwards, and more particularly the north and Scotland where it could turn to snow along the back edge, even down to lower levels.

The most significant feature of the low as it traverses the country will be the wind. This will start picking up around 2300 and the strongest winds will effect a swathe of the country from Cumbria south encompassing Wales and the Midlands but still windy south of here.

Edited February 6, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Classic example of amplification of the subtropical highs doing nasty things to the trough whilst initiating some quite impassive WAA over NW Europe

Edited February 6, 2019 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

can i ask

anybody else not able to view the noaa anomaly charts?.. i get a 'insecure' note - page not directing properly.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[bluearmy]

On 02/02/2019 at 22:07, bluearmy said:

Indeed - though it wouldn’t surprise me if week two morphed into something akin to what we saw a week or so back with W Europe height anomoly removed and the jet back onto a nw/se axis from the Canadian lobe

 

current direction of travel .........

[knocker]

This some weird upstream alignment